A consumer tax-services company with compelling valuation metrics (forward P/E of 6.2x, PEG of 0.51), 19% net margins, and a recent three-quarter earnings beat streak is offset by a confirmed price downtrend declining at 5.3% per month, 23% short interest, and two high-severity counterparty concentration risks — the setup offers roughly 7% return to the next resistance level but lacks the technical catalyst needed to close that gap near-term.
Thesis pillars
- Compelling Earnings Growth Value↑Improving
- High Margin Quality Business→Stable
- Three Quarter Earnings Beat Streak→Stable
- +2 more pillars — see the Why tab for full reasoning
H&R Block, Inc. (HRB) Stock Analysis
Consumer Cyclical · Personal Services
Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $45.12 — A.R:R is negative (-0.4) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Sector modifier (Consumer Cyclical): -1.5.
H&R Block provides assisted and DIY tax preparation services, financial products, and small-business solutions (Block Advisors, Wave) primarily in the U.S., Canada, and Australia. In fiscal 2025, the company prepared 11.3 million U.S. assisted tax returns and 3.8 million DIY... Read more
Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $45.12 — A.R:R is negative (-0.4) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Sector modifier (Consumer Cyclical): -1.5. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Score 5.8/10, high confidence.
Passes 6/8 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 53d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: moderate.
About H&R Block, Inc.
About H&R Block, Inc.
H&R Block prepared 11.3 million U.S. assisted tax returns and processed 3.8 million DIY online paid returns in fiscal 2025 — part of 22.8 million total returns filed by or through the company across the U.S., Canada, and Australia — generating $3.8 billion in consolidated revenue and $609.5 million in net income from continuing operations. U.S. franchisees pay the company approximately 30% of gross tax-return-preparation revenue as a royalty, and the business operates as a single reportable segment.
H&R Block earns revenue from assisted tax-preparation fees charged in company-owned and franchise offices, DIY online and desktop software fees, and a suite of financial products — Refund Transfers, Peace of Mind extended service plans, Emerald Advance and Refund Advance loans, and the Emerald Card and Spruce accounts — all of which are issued through its bank partner, Pathward, N.A., a wholly-owned subsidiary of Pathward Financial. The company also depends on a limited number of other key vendors, including Fidelity National Information Services and Galileo Financial Technologies for data processing and card production and Microsoft for technology infrastructure; losing any of these relationships could disrupt service delivery with no assurance of a comparable replacement on acceptable terms. Because the substantial majority of revenue is earned between February and April, H&R Block generally operates at a loss through the first half of its fiscal year, and it maintains a $1.5 billion unsecured credit line, extended in July 2025 to mature in 2030, to bridge that seasonal cash gap.
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H&R Block faces a structural threat from free tax-filing alternatives rather than only paid competitors: the IRS ran a limited free direct-filing system in tax seasons 2024 and 2025 that it may expand, and the Free File Inc. agreement under which private-industry members offer free DIY software to certain taxpayers is set to expire in October 2029. Because H&R Block itself already offers some services at no charge to compete for clients, and because the 10-K flags that paying clients could migrate to those free tiers, the more the government or Free File participants expand no-cost filing, the more the company's paid assisted and DIY revenue base could erode independent of any change in tax law itself.
See also: Consumer Cyclical · Personal Services
From H&R Block, Inc.'s most recent 10-K filing, extracted September 6, 2026.
Recent developments
updated 2026-09-13Recent Developments — H&R Block, Inc.
Latest news
- NEWS H&R Block (HRB) Shares Skyrocket, What You Need To Know - Yahoo Finance UK — Yahoo Finance UK positive
- NEWS Does H&R Block's (HRB) New Analyst Coverage Reframe Its Defensive Profile or Just Confirm Consensus? - Sahm — Sahm neutral
- NEWS H&R Block (HRB) Stock Looks Below Fair Value After A 115% Five Year Run - Yahoo Finance — Yahoo Finance neutral
- NEWS H&R Block (HRB) Stock Looks Below Fair Value After A 115% Five Year Run - finance.yahoo.com — finance.yahoo.com positive
- NEWS HRB HR Block reports narrower Q1 2026 per share loss than estimates, dips 0.25 percent in today’s trading. - Newser — Newser neutral
Generated 2026-09-14T05:28:56Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Rating Breakdown
2 floor-breakers
Growth below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Momentum below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $45.12 — A.R:R is negative (-0.4) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Sector modifier (Consumer Cyclical): -1.5. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Prior stop was $42.99. Score 5.8/10, high confidence.
Take-profit target: $53.16 (-2.7% upside). Prior stop was $42.99. Stop-loss: $42.99.
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Sector modifier (Consumer Cyclical): -1.5; Leverage penalty (D/E 17.9): -1.5.
H&R Block, Inc. trades at a P/E of 7.9 (forward 6.5). TrendMatrix value score: 8.2/10. Verdict: Sell.
12 analysts cover HRB with a consensus score of 2.6/5. Average price target: $52.
What does H&R Block, Inc. do?H&R Block provides assisted and DIY tax preparation services, financial products, and small-business solutions (Block...
H&R Block provides assisted and DIY tax preparation services, financial products, and small-business solutions (Block Advisors, Wave) primarily in the U.S., Canada, and Australia. In fiscal 2025, the company prepared 11.3 million U.S. assisted tax returns and 3.8 million DIY online paid returns, generating $3.8 billion in consolidated revenue and $609.5 million in net income from continuing operations. The company relies on Pathward, N.A. as the sole issuer of its Refund Transfer, Emerald Advance, Refund Advance, and Emerald Card products.