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frontdoor, inc. (FTDR) Stock Analysis

HoldVALUE-TRAP 1/5Moderate Confidence

Consumer Cyclical · Personal Services

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $67.59, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Near 52-week high (4.6% away).

Frontdoor is the leading provider of home warranties in the United States by revenue, operating under American Home Shield, HSA, OneGuard, Landmark, and 2-10 HBW brands. With 2.1 million active home warranties, 76% of 2025 revenue came from renewals and approximately 84% of... Read more

$67.59+1.7% A.UpsideScore 5.8/10#2 of 6 Personal Services
Stop $62.76Target $68.61(resistance)A.R:R -0.4:1
Analyst target$73.40+8.6%5 analysts
$68.61our TP
$67.59price
$73.40mean
$82

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $67.59, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Near 52-week high (4.6% away). Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position. | News modifier +1 (SELL_IF_HOLDING → HOLD_IF_HOLDING) Score 5.8/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 5/6 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, earnings proximity no date, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (4/4)
Earnings estimates trending UP
High-quality business
Risks
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining
Near 52-week high (4.6% away)
Leverage penalty (D/E 5.1): -1.5

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)19.6
P/E (Fwd)13.8
Mkt Cap$4.8B
EV/EBITDA10.9
Profit Mgn12.2%
ROE121.0%
Rev Growth5.9%
Beta
DividendNone
Rating analysts13

Quality Signals

Piotroski F7/9

Options Flow

P/C4.46bearish
IV52%elevated
Max Pain$50-26.0% vs spot

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • MEDIUMGeographicCalifornia, Florida and Texas
    10-K Item 1A: 'particularly in our largest regions—California, Florida and Texas'

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-03-17Item 5.02LOW
    Dennis Howard elected director and Audit Committee member effective March 17, 2026. He is Managing Director, Chief Technology, Operations, and Data Officer at Charles Schwab. Independent director; no prior arrangement with Company.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker·1 ceiling hit

Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Bollinger
0.0
Support Resistance
1.5
Gap
5.0
52w Position
9.1
GatesA.R:R -0.4=NEGATIVEMomentum 6.7>=5.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsEARNINGS PROXIMITY NO DATESEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
72 · Overbought
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $53.51Resistance $70.01

Price Targets

$63
$69
A.Upside+1.5%
A.R:R-0.4:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeCautious

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-5.4% upside)
! NEWS_MOD=+1: SELL_IF_HOLDING → HOLD_IF_HOLDING
! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside

Earnings

B
B
B
B
4/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-04-30 (nulld)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is FTDR stock a buy right now?

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $67.59, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Near 52-week high (4.6% away). Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position. | News modifier +1 (SELL_IF_HOLDING → HOLD_IF_HOLDING) Target $68.61 (+1.5%), stop $62.76 (−7.7%), A.R:R -0.4:1. Score 5.8/10, moderate confidence.

What is the FTDR stock price target?

Take-profit target: $68.61 (+1.7% upside). Target $68.61 (+1.5%), stop $62.76 (−7.7%), A.R:R -0.4:1. Stop-loss: $62.76.

What are the risks of investing in FTDR?

Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Near 52-week high (4.6% away); Leverage penalty (D/E 5.1): -1.5.

Is FTDR overvalued or undervalued?

frontdoor, inc. trades at a P/E of 19.6 (forward 13.8). TrendMatrix value score: 6.8/10. Verdict: Hold.

What do analysts say about FTDR?

13 analysts cover FTDR with a consensus score of 4.0/5. Average price target: $73.

What does frontdoor, inc. do?Frontdoor is the leading provider of home warranties in the United States by revenue, operating under American Home...

Frontdoor is the leading provider of home warranties in the United States by revenue, operating under American Home Shield, HSA, OneGuard, Landmark, and 2-10 HBW brands. With 2.1 million active home warranties, 76% of 2025 revenue came from renewals and approximately 84% of customers are on monthly auto-pay.

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