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FTDRfrontdoor, inc.Sell5.8·$68.83+1.94%
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frontdoor, inc. (FTDR) Stock Analysis

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5Moderate Confidence

Consumer Cyclical · Personal Services

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $68.83 — A.R:R is negative (-0.5) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Near 52-week high (2.7% away).

Frontdoor is the leading U.S. home warranty provider by revenue, operating under American Home Shield, HSA, OneGuard, Landmark, and 2-10 HBW brands with ~2.1M active warranties. It generated $2,093M revenue in 2025; 76% came from existing customer renewals, serving homeowners... Read more

$68.83-0.5% A.UpsideScore 5.8/10#3 of 6 Personal Services
QualityF-score7 / 9FCF yield6.79%
Stop $64.93Target $68.50(resistance)A.R:R -0.5:1
Analyst target$74.20+7.8%5 analysts
$68.50our TP
$68.83price
$74.20mean
$82

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $68.83 — A.R:R is negative (-0.5) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Near 52-week high (2.7% away). Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Score 5.8/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 6/8 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, news events none recent, earnings proximity 51d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-06-14

Recent Developments — frontdoor, inc.

Generated 2026-06-15T18:11:46Z.

TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Tue, Aug 4, 202651d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (4/4)
High-quality business
Positive momentum
Risks
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining
Near 52-week high (2.7% away)
Leverage penalty (D/E 5.2): -1.5

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)19.7
P/E (Fwd)13.7
Mkt Cap$4.8B
EV/EBITDA10.9
Profit Mgn12.2%
ROE121.0%
Rev Growth5.9%
Beta1.51
DividendNone
Rating analysts13

Quality Signals

Piotroski F7/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C0.85neutral
IV57%elevated
Max Pain$45-34.6% vs spot

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-03-17Item 5.02LOW
    On March 16, 2026, Frontdoor's Board elected Dennis Howard (Managing Director at Charles Schwab) as an independent director and Audit Committee member, effective March 17, 2026. No officer departure; routine board appointment.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker

Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Bollinger
0.0
Support Resistance
1.0
52w Position
9.5
GatesA.R:R -0.5=NEGATIVEExecutive change: officer departure/appointmentMomentum 7.2>=5.5Insider activity: OKNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 51d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
82 · Overbought
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $59.55Resistance $69.90

Price Targets

$65
$69
A.Upside-0.5%
A.R:R-0.5:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-6.2% upside)
! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside

Earnings

B
B
B
B
4/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-08-04 (51d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is FTDR stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $68.83 — A.R:R is negative (-0.5) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Near 52-week high (2.7% away). Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Prior stop was $64.93. Score 5.8/10, moderate confidence.

What is the FTDR stock price target?

Take-profit target: $68.50 (-0.5% upside). Prior stop was $64.93. Stop-loss: $64.93.

What are the risks of investing in FTDR?

Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Near 52-week high (2.7% away); Leverage penalty (D/E 5.2): -1.5.

Is FTDR overvalued or undervalued?

frontdoor, inc. trades at a P/E of 19.7 (forward 13.7). TrendMatrix value score: 6.9/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about FTDR?

13 analysts cover FTDR with a consensus score of 4.0/5. Average price target: $74.

What does frontdoor, inc. do?Frontdoor is the leading U.S. home warranty provider by revenue, operating under American Home Shield, HSA, OneGuard,...

Frontdoor is the leading U.S. home warranty provider by revenue, operating under American Home Shield, HSA, OneGuard, Landmark, and 2-10 HBW brands with ~2.1M active warranties. It generated $2,093M revenue in 2025; 76% came from existing customer renewals, serving homeowners through a network of ~17,000 independent contractor firms.

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