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BFAMBright Horizons Family SolutionSell5.9·$64.30+4.54%
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Bright Horizons Family Solution (BFAM) Stock Analysis

Recovery setup

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5High Confidence

Consumer Cyclical · Personal Services

Sell if holding. Multiple concerning factors at $64.30: Concentration risk — Product: Full service center-based child care (71.0%); V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.5).

Bright Horizons provides employer-sponsored early education and child care, back-up care, and educational advisory services to more than 1,450 employers across the U.S., U.K., Netherlands, Australia, and India. The company generated $2.93 billion in revenue in 2025 through... Read more

$64.30+25.2% A.UpsideScore 5.9/10#2 of 6 Personal Services
QualityF-score6 / 9FCF yield8.28%
Stop $59.79Target $80.52(analyst − 13%)A.R:R 2.4:1
Analyst target$92.56+43.9%9 analysts
$80.52our TP
$64.30price
$92.56mean
$105

Sell if holding. Multiple concerning factors at $64.30: Concentration risk — Product: Full service center-based child care (71.0%); V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.5). Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 44. Score 5.9/10, high confidence.

Passes 8/10 gates (positive momentum, favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 49d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Suitability: aggressive.

10-K grounded · weekly refresh

About Bright Horizons Family Solution

About Bright Horizons Family Solution

Bright Horizons delivered $2.93 billion in total revenue during 2025 across three segments: full service center-based child care (71% of revenue, $2.08 billion), back-up care (25%, $728 million), and educational advisory services (4%, $125 million). The company operated 1,010 early education and child care centers in the United States, United Kingdom, Netherlands, Australia, and India at December 31, 2025, serving more than 1,450 employers including more than 220 Fortune 500 companies.

Bright Horizons earns revenue primarily through multi-year employer contracts — 3 to 10 years for full service child care, typically 3 years for back-up care — under which employers sponsor care services as employee benefits. In the full service segment (71% of revenues), approximately 75% of centers operate under a profit-and-loss model, either as employer-sponsored (sponsor model, where the employer retains responsibility for facility development) or as community-facing (lease model, with lease terms typically running 10 to 15 years). The remaining 25% of centers operate on a cost-plus model where employers bear financial risk and pay a management fee. Tuition paid by families accounts for roughly 90% of full service segment revenue, with monthly rates averaging $2,765 for infants and $2,175 for preschoolers across a sample of 350 U.S. centers. Personnel costs comprise approximately 70% of center operating expenses, making labor the largest cost driver. Back-up care operations combine Bright Horizons-owned centers with a network of more than 5,500 third-party providers.

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Labor is the defining operating risk: personnel costs represent approximately 70% of center operating expenses, and government-mandated teacher-to-child ratios force enrollment constraints or classroom closures when qualified staff cannot be hired. The 10-K identifies ongoing difficulty attracting and retaining qualified teachers as a recurring challenge that has required salary increases and enhanced benefits. Real estate obligations compound this, with lease-model centers typically locked into 10 to 15-year terms that limit cost flexibility if enrollment declines at a particular site.

See also: Consumer Cyclical · Personal Services

From Bright Horizons Family Solution's most recent 10-K filing, extracted June 9, 2026.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-06-11
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Thu, Jul 30, 202649d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (4/4)
Attractive valuation
Strong growth profile
Risks
Concentration risk — Product: Full service center-based child care (71.0%)
V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.5)
Sector modifier (Consumer Cyclical): -1.5

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)19.4
P/E (Fwd)11.2
Mkt Cap$3.4B
EV/EBITDA11.1
Profit Mgn6.3%
ROE15.3%
Rev Growth7.0%
Beta1.18
DividendNone
Rating analysts16

Quality Signals

Piotroski F6/9

Options Flow

P/C2.75bearish
IV73%elevated
Max Pain$145+125.5% vs spot

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHProductFull service center-based child care71%
    10-K Item 1: 'Full service center-based child care (71% of our revenue in 2025)'

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker

Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

52w Position
0.0
Bollinger
5.2
Support Resistance
5.3
GatesMomentum 5.4<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)Death cross (50MA < 200MA)Momentum 5.4>=4.5A.R:R 2.4 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 49d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARRecoverySuitability: Aggressive
RSI
44 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $57.63Resistance $71.92

Price Targets

$60
$81
A.Upside+25.2%
A.R:R2.4:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeRisk-Off

Analyst Consensus

Analysts16
Consensus3.8/5
Avg Target$93

Earnings

B
B
B
B
4/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-30 (49d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is BFAM stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Multiple concerning factors at $64.30: Concentration risk — Product: Full service center-based child care (71.0%); V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.5). Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 44. Prior stop was $59.79. Score 5.9/10, high confidence.

What is the BFAM stock price target?

Take-profit target: $80.52 (+25.2% upside). Prior stop was $59.79. Stop-loss: $59.79.

What are the risks of investing in BFAM?

Concentration risk — Product: Full service center-based child care (71.0%); V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.5); Sector modifier (Consumer Cyclical): -1.5.

Is BFAM overvalued or undervalued?

Bright Horizons Family Solution trades at a P/E of 19.4 (forward 11.2). TrendMatrix value score: 8.5/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about BFAM?

16 analysts cover BFAM with a consensus score of 3.8/5. Average price target: $93.

What does Bright Horizons Family Solution do?Bright Horizons provides employer-sponsored early education and child care, back-up care, and educational advisory...

Bright Horizons provides employer-sponsored early education and child care, back-up care, and educational advisory services to more than 1,450 employers across the U.S., U.K., Netherlands, Australia, and India. The company generated $2.93 billion in revenue in 2025 through multi-year contracts, operating 1,010 child care centers with capacity for approximately 115,000 children.

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