Hilton operates a high-quality lodging franchise with consistent earnings delivery and strong price momentum, but the stock has moved above its near-term price target with a forward P/E of 33 times — the quality is real but the current setup is fully valued and the risk/reward does not favor adding new exposure.
Thesis pillars
- Consistent Earnings Delivery↓Deteriorating
- High Quality Franchise Metrics↑Improving
- Valuation Extended Unfavorable Geometry↑Improving
- +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning
Pillars as of Jul 3, 2026, based on the 10-K filed Feb 11, 2026
Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc. (HLT) Stock Analysis
Breakout setup
Consumer Cyclical · Lodging
Wait for pullback to $324.02. Price sits above the model's entry target of $324.02; the risk/reward becomes favorable on a pullback. Key risks: Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Near 52-week high (4.1% away).
Hilton Worldwide Holdings operates 9,158 properties with 1,351,351 rooms across 143 countries through a management and franchise model spanning 22 brands from luxury (Waldorf Astoria) to economy (Spark by Hilton). The company earns management and franchise fees from third-party... Read more
Wait for pullback to $324.02. Price sits above the model's entry target of $324.02; the risk/reward becomes favorable on a pullback. Key risks: Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Near 52-week high (4.1% away). Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 69, MACD bullish. Growth is cheap relative to earnings, but the technical setup has not yet produced a breakout above resistance (PEG 1.43, quality 9.4/10, growth 9.3/10). Score 6.3/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 6/8 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, news boost analyst 0.60, earnings proximity 104d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: moderate.
Recent developments
updated 2026-10-29Recent Developments — Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc.
Latest news
- NEWS HLT Q2 Deep Dive: Owner Profitability Initiatives and Business Transient Demand Shape Results - StockStory — StockStory positive
- NEWS Macquarie raises Hilton stock price target to $320 on guidance boost - Investing.com — Investing.com positive
- NEWS Analysts Offer Insights on Consumer Cyclical Companies: Crown Holdings (CCK), Hilton Worldwide Holdings (HLT) and Wyndha — The Globe and Mail positive
- NEWS HLT Q1 Deep Dive: U.S. Demand Momentum and Global Expansion Offset Regional Headwinds - StockStory — StockStory positive
- NEWS Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc. stock outperforms competitors on strong trading day - MarketWatch — MarketWatch positive
Generated 2026-10-29T11:14:33Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Material Events(8-K, last 90d)
- 2026-05-18Item 5.02LOWStockholders approved the Hilton Amended and Restated 2017 Omnibus Incentive Plan on May 14, 2026, authorizing an additional 846,000 shares and extending the plan term by 10 years to May 14, 2036. Compensatory arrangement only; no officer departure.SEC filing →
- 2026-05-05Item 5.02MEDIUMChristopher W. Silcock, President Global Brands & Commercial Services, announced planned retirement in Q1 2027. Laura Fuentes to become Chief Brand Officer; Chris Wilroy to join Executive Committee; external search launched for new Chief Technology Officer.SEC filing →
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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Rating Breakdown
1 floor-breaker·2 ceiling hits
Priced at a premium — multiples above sector norms. Needs delivery on growth + margins to justify.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Wait for pullback to $324.02. Price sits above the model's entry target of $324.02; the risk/reward becomes favorable on a pullback. Key risks: Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Near 52-week high (4.1% away). Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 69, MACD bullish. Growth is cheap relative to earnings, but the technical setup has not yet produced a breakout above resistance (PEG 1.43, quality 9.4/10, growth 9.3/10). Analyst target $321.70 reached (−8.0%), stop $306.50 (−14.1%), A.R:R -0.8:1. Score 6.3/10, moderate confidence.
Analyst target $321.70 reached (−8.0% from $349.63); no take-profit level is published. Analyst target $321.70 reached (−8.0%), stop $306.50 (−14.1%), A.R:R -0.8:1. Stop-loss: $306.50.
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Near 52-week high (4.1% away); Sector modifier (Consumer Cyclical): -1.5.
Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc. trades at a P/E of 47.2 (forward 33.6). TrendMatrix value score: 3.2/10. Verdict: Buy (Wait for Entry).
33 analysts cover HLT with a consensus score of 3.8/5. Average price target: $357.
What does Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc. do?Hilton Worldwide Holdings operates 9,158 properties with 1,351,351 rooms across 143 countries through a management and...
Hilton Worldwide Holdings operates 9,158 properties with 1,351,351 rooms across 143 countries through a management and franchise model spanning 22 brands from luxury (Waldorf Astoria) to economy (Spark by Hilton). The company earns management and franchise fees from third-party hotel owners plus direct room and food-and-beverage revenue from 46 owned/leased hotels, supplemented by licensing fees from Hilton Grand Vacations and co-branded credit card partners. Hilton Honors, with 243 million members, drives repeat bookings across the portfolio.