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HLTHilton Worldwide Holdings Inc.Hold5.3·$322.02+0.09%
HoldModerate Confidence
Investment thesis

Hilton operates a high-quality lodging franchise with consistent earnings delivery and strong price momentum, but the stock has moved above its near-term price target with a forward P/E of 33 times — the quality is real but the current setup is fully valued and the risk/reward does not favor adding new exposure.

Thesis pillars

  • Consistent Earnings DeliveryStable
  • High Quality Franchise MetricsDeteriorating
  • Valuation Extended Unfavorable GeometryStable
  • +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning

Full reasoning →

Open full analysis

Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc. (HLT) Stock Analysis

HoldQualityModerate Confidence

Consumer Cyclical · Lodging

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $322.02, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Expensive valuation.

Hilton Worldwide Holdings operates 9,158 properties with 1,351,351 rooms across 143 countries through a management and franchise model spanning 22 brands from luxury (Waldorf Astoria) to economy (Spark by Hilton). The company earns management and franchise fees from third-party... Read more

$322.02-1.7% A.UpsideScore 5.3/10#6 of 8 Lodging
QualityF-score8 / 9FCF yield1.92%
IncomeYield0.19%(5y avg 0.80%)Payout9.16%sustainable
Stop $304.40Target $336.12(resistance)A.R:R -0.3:1
Analyst target$351.63+9.2%24 analysts
$336.12our TP
$322.02price
$351.63mean
$260
$394

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $322.02, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Expensive valuation. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position. | News modifier +2 (SELL_IF_HOLDING → HOLD_IF_HOLDING) Score 5.3/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 5/8 gates (clean insider activity, news boost analyst 0.60, earnings proximity 89d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: moderate.

TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Wed, Oct 28, 202689d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (4/4)
Positive news sentiment (+0.83)
High-quality business
Risks
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining
Expensive valuation
Weak growth

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)49.0
P/E (Fwd)30.9
Mkt Cap$72.5B
EV/EBITDA27.7
Profit Mgn31.0%
ROE
Rev Growth2.5%
Beta1.05
Dividend0.19%
Rating analysts31

Quality Signals

Piotroski F8/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C0.86neutral
IV39%normal
Max Pain$270-16.2% vs spot

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-05-18Item 5.02LOW
    Stockholders approved the Hilton Amended and Restated 2017 Omnibus Incentive Plan on May 14, 2026, authorizing an additional 846,000 shares and extending the plan term by 10 years to May 14, 2036. Compensatory arrangement only; no officer departure.
    SEC filing →
  • 2026-05-05Item 5.02MEDIUM
    Christopher W. Silcock, President Global Brands & Commercial Services, announced planned retirement in Q1 2027. Laura Fuentes to become Chief Brand Officer; Chris Wilroy to join Executive Committee; external search launched for new Chief Technology Officer.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.

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Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

3 floor-breakers

Priced at a premium — multiples above sector norms. Needs delivery on growth + margins to justify.static

Ev Ebitda
0.0
Ps
0.6
Pe
2.5
Forward Pe
3.8
Analyst Target
4.0
Peg Ratio
4.9
Forward P/E: 30.9xPEG: 1.59Expensive valuation

Momentum below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Macd
0.0
Obv
1.0
Volume
3.6
Ma Position
4.0
Rsi
7.8
Uptrend pullback (RSI 37) - buy opportunityVolume distribution (falling OBV)Above 200-day MA

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Value Rank
0.0
Growth Rank
2.5
Quality Rank
6.3
GatesMomentum 3.3<4.5A.R:R -0.3=NEGATIVEExecutive change: officer departure/appointmentInsider activity: OKNEWS BOOST ANALYST 0.60EARNINGS PROXIMITY 89d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Moderate
RSI
37 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $311.67Resistance $342.98

Price Targets

$304
$336
A.Upside-1.7%
A.R:R-0.3:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-1.7% upside)
! NEWS_MOD=+2: SELL_IF_HOLDING → HOLD_IF_HOLDING
! momentum at 3.3 (below the engine's 4.5 threshold)

Earnings

B
B
B
B
4/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-10-28 (89d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is HLT stock a buy right now?

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $322.02, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Expensive valuation. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position. | News modifier +2 (SELL_IF_HOLDING → HOLD_IF_HOLDING) Target $336.12 (+4.4%), stop $304.40 (−5.8%), A.R:R -0.3:1. Score 5.3/10, moderate confidence.

What is the HLT stock price target?

Take-profit target: $336.12 (-1.7% upside). Target $336.12 (+4.4%), stop $304.40 (−5.8%), A.R:R -0.3:1. Stop-loss: $304.40.

What are the risks of investing in HLT?

Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Expensive valuation; Weak growth.

Is HLT overvalued or undervalued?

Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc. trades at a P/E of 49.0 (forward 30.9). TrendMatrix value score: 3.0/10. Verdict: Hold.

What do analysts say about HLT?

31 analysts cover HLT with a consensus score of 3.7/5. Average price target: $352.

What does Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc. do?Hilton Worldwide Holdings operates 9,158 properties with 1,351,351 rooms across 143 countries through a management and...

Hilton Worldwide Holdings operates 9,158 properties with 1,351,351 rooms across 143 countries through a management and franchise model spanning 22 brands from luxury (Waldorf Astoria) to economy (Spark by Hilton). The company earns management and franchise fees from third-party hotel owners plus direct room and food-and-beverage revenue from 46 owned/leased hotels, supplemented by licensing fees from Hilton Grand Vacations and co-branded credit card partners. Hilton Honors, with 243 million members, drives repeat bookings across the portfolio.

Related stocks: HTHT (H World Group Limited) · MAR (Marriott International) · IHG (Intercontinental Hotels Group) · H (Hyatt Hotels Corporation)
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