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Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc. (HLT) Stock Analysis

Range Bound setup · Temp Headwind edge

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5Moderate Confidence

Consumer Cyclical · Lodging

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $324.35 — A.R:R is negative (-0.5) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Expensive valuation.

Hilton Worldwide is one of the largest global hospitality companies with 9,158 properties (1,351,351 rooms) across 143 countries as of Dec 31, 2025. It earns management fees, franchise royalties, and licensing fees from third-party hotel owners; Hilton Honors loyalty program has... Read more

$324.35+4.1% A.UpsideScore 5.4/10#3 of 8 Lodging
Stop $309.06Target $337.86(resistance)A.R:R -0.5:1
Analyst target$346.58+6.9%24 analysts
$337.86our TP
$324.35price
$346.58mean
$250
$390

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $324.35 — A.R:R is negative (-0.5) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Expensive valuation. Chart setup: RSI 48 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Score 5.4/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 6/8 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news boost analyst 0.40, news boost analyst cluster(4), earnings proximity 89d clear, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: moderate.

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (3/4)
High-quality business
Strong growth profile
Risks
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining
Expensive valuation
Negative momentum

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)49.6
P/E (Fwd)31.1
Mkt Cap$73.8B
EV/EBITDA28.7
Profit Mgn30.4%
ROE
Rev Growth11.0%
Beta1.11
Dividend0.19%
Rating analysts32

Quality Signals

Piotroski F8/9

Options Flow

P/C1.08bearish
IV37%normal
Max Pain$205-36.8% vs spot

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers

Momentum below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Macd
0.0
Volume
0.0
Obv
1.0
Rsi
5.5
Ma Position
6.0
Volume distribution (falling OBV)Above 200-day MA

Priced at a premium — multiples above sector norms. Needs delivery on growth + margins to justify.static

Ev Ebitda
0.0
Ps
0.3
Pe
2.5
Forward Pe
3.8
Analyst Target
4.0
Peg Ratio
5.0
Forward P/E: 31.1xPEG: 1.53Expensive valuation
GatesMomentum 2.5<4.5A.R:R -0.5=NEGATIVEInsider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS BOOST ANALYST 0.40NEWS BOOST ANALYST CLUSTER(4)EARNINGS PROXIMITY 89d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARRange BoundSuitability: Moderate
RSI
48 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $299.06Resistance $344.75

Price Targets

$309
$338
A.Upside+4.2%
A.R:R-0.5:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeCautious

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-3.9% upside)
! Momentum score 2.5/10 — below 4.5 minimum
! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside

Earnings

B
B
B
M
3/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-29 (89d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is HLT stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $324.35 — A.R:R is negative (-0.5) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Expensive valuation. Chart setup: RSI 48 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Prior stop was $309.06. Score 5.4/10, moderate confidence.

What is the HLT stock price target?

Take-profit target: $337.86 (+4.1% upside). Prior stop was $309.06. Stop-loss: $309.06.

What are the risks of investing in HLT?

Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Expensive valuation; Negative momentum.

Is HLT overvalued or undervalued?

Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc. trades at a P/E of 49.6 (forward 31.1). TrendMatrix value score: 2.9/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about HLT?

32 analysts cover HLT with a consensus score of 3.7/5. Average price target: $347.

What does Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc. do?Hilton Worldwide is one of the largest global hospitality companies with 9,158 properties (1,351,351 rooms) across 143...

Hilton Worldwide is one of the largest global hospitality companies with 9,158 properties (1,351,351 rooms) across 143 countries as of Dec 31, 2025. It earns management fees, franchise royalties, and licensing fees from third-party hotel owners; Hilton Honors loyalty program has 243 million members, a 15% increase year-over-year.

Related stocks: HTHT (H World Group Limited) · IHG (Intercontinental Hotels Group) · MAR (Marriott International) · H (Hyatt Hotels Corporation)