Value
3.2/10data confidence 83%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 2.6 |
| P/S | 0.8 |
| Fwd P/E | 3.3 |
| PEG | 5.3 |
| Analyst target | 4.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 33.6x
- ▸PEG: 1.43
HLT · Why this verdict
Why Hilton Worldwide Holdings (HLT) is rated BUY WAIT
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
Show full disclosure ▾Hide full disclosure ▴
About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.
Not investment advice. TrendMatrix is not a registered investment adviser. Our content is for informational and educational purposes only. Consult your own licensed investment adviser, broker, or tax professional before making any investment decision.
Conflicts and positions. People who build TrendMatrix, or entities they control, may hold positions, long or short, in securities it covers, and may trade them at any time. Positions are not disclosed individually. Verdicts are generated by an automated model applied by the same rules to every covered stock, and are not adjusted for any position held by the people who build TrendMatrix. We do not accept payment from issuers for coverage.
No paid promotion. TrendMatrix does not accept payment from any issuer, broker, or third party in exchange for coverage of any security.
No fiduciary duty. No fiduciary, advisory, or agency relationship is created between you and TrendMatrix by reading our content or subscribing to our service.
Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.
VerdictBUY WAIT
Overall score6.3/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroRISK_OFF
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Hilton operates a high-quality lodging franchise with consistent earnings delivery and strong price momentum, but the stock has moved above its near-term price target with a forward P/E of 33 times — the quality is real but the current setup is fully valued and the risk/reward does not favor adding new exposure.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
The company has beaten consensus estimates in each of the last four quarters, with an average beat of roughly 4 percentage points — a track record of consistent, modest outperformance that limits the risk of negative earnings surprises. Earnings | Quarterly EPS beats continue for at least 3 of the next 4 reported quarters. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterThe average beat is narrow at roughly 4 percentage points; any unexpected cost increase or demand softness could produce the first miss, resetting expectations and potentially triggering a de-rating from an already elevated multiple. | ||
The business sustains 30% net margins, passes the growth-efficiency test with a combined score of 44, and scores 8 out of 9 on the financial health assessment — indicators of an operationally sound franchise with durable profitability. Quality breakdown | Net margin holds above 25% and the combined efficiency score stays above 40 over the next four quarters. | ↑Improving |
| CounterThe forward P/E of 33.3 times means the quality premium is already reflected in the price; any margin contraction or softer demand could trigger a de-rating even if absolute quality holds up. | ||
With a forward P/E of 33.3 times and a PEG of 1.72, the stock screens expensive relative to growth, and the share price has already moved above the near-term price target — making the current risk/reward geometry unfavorable for new capital. Valuation breakdown | The forward multiple compresses below 26 times over the next 12 months, either through earnings growth outpacing the share price or a price correction that restores entry room. | ↑Improving |
| CounterHigh-quality franchises in durable consumer industries often sustain premium multiples for extended periods; the valuation, while full, is not inherently unsustainable if lodging demand trends remain positive. | ||
The stock sits near its 52-week high with a put/call ratio of 2.04 — options participants are carrying unusually heavy downside protection, a setup often associated with near-term consolidation risk even in technically strong trends. Risk breakdown | If the business outlook remains healthy over 12 months, the put/call ratio should normalize below 1.0 as hedges roll off and the stock digests near current levels without a sharp reversal. | →Stable |
| CounterA golden cross and rising OBV confirm institutional accumulation remains intact; an elevated put/call ratio can simply reflect hedging by existing holders rather than directional bearishness, and the trend may persist regardless. | ||
The company has beaten consensus estimates in each of the last four quarters, with an average beat of roughly 4 percentage points — a track record of consistent, modest outperformance that limits the risk of negative earnings surprises.
↓DeterioratingEarnings
- Expectation
- Quarterly EPS beats continue for at least 3 of the next 4 reported quarters.
CounterThe average beat is narrow at roughly 4 percentage points; any unexpected cost increase or demand softness could produce the first miss, resetting expectations and potentially triggering a de-rating from an already elevated multiple.
The business sustains 30% net margins, passes the growth-efficiency test with a combined score of 44, and scores 8 out of 9 on the financial health assessment — indicators of an operationally sound franchise with durable profitability.
↑ImprovingQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Net margin holds above 25% and the combined efficiency score stays above 40 over the next four quarters.
CounterThe forward P/E of 33.3 times means the quality premium is already reflected in the price; any margin contraction or softer demand could trigger a de-rating even if absolute quality holds up.
With a forward P/E of 33.3 times and a PEG of 1.72, the stock screens expensive relative to growth, and the share price has already moved above the near-term price target — making the current risk/reward geometry unfavorable for new capital.
↑ImprovingValuation breakdown
- Expectation
- The forward multiple compresses below 26 times over the next 12 months, either through earnings growth outpacing the share price or a price correction that restores entry room.
CounterHigh-quality franchises in durable consumer industries often sustain premium multiples for extended periods; the valuation, while full, is not inherently unsustainable if lodging demand trends remain positive.
The stock sits near its 52-week high with a put/call ratio of 2.04 — options participants are carrying unusually heavy downside protection, a setup often associated with near-term consolidation risk even in technically strong trends.
→StableRisk breakdown
- Expectation
- If the business outlook remains healthy over 12 months, the put/call ratio should normalize below 1.0 as hedges roll off and the stock digests near current levels without a sharp reversal.
CounterA golden cross and rising OBV confirm institutional accumulation remains intact; an elevated put/call ratio can simply reflect hedging by existing holders rather than directional bearishness, and the trend may persist regardless.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
9.4/10data confidence 71%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Gross margin | 10.0 |
| Op margin | 10.0 |
| Net margin | 10.0 |
| Moat | 7.0 |
| Piotroski F | 10.0 |
- ▸Strong margins: 30%
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 9/9
- ▸High-quality business
Growth
9.3/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 10.0 |
| EPS growth | 8.6 |
- ▸Strong growth: 159% YoY
Momentum
5.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 5.0 |
| MACD | 10.0 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 9.0 |
| Volume | 4.0 |
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
6.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 7.0 |
| Analyst rating | 7.5 |
| Price target | 5.3 |
- ▸LLM news sentiment: +0.40 (n=5)
Insider
3.7/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 3.2 |
| notable moves | 3.0 |
- ▸Negligible insider selling — $2,394,457 (0.003% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
5.0/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 1.7 |
| quality rank | 5.0 |
| growth rank | 8.3 |
- ▸Industry growth leader
Technical
5.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 3.0 |
| support resistance | 2.9 |
| 52w position | 9.2 |
Risk (lower is worse)
6.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 8.7 |
| days to cover | 7.5 |
| volatility | 6.2 |
| put call | 3.4 |
| implied vol | 7.1 |
Catalyst
6.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 3.7 |
| dividend safety | 5.5 |
| news activity | 8.0 |
- ▸Perfect beat streak: 4Q
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Growth is cheap relative to earnings, but the technical setup has not yet produced a breakout above resistance (PEG 1.43, quality 9.4/10, growth 9.3/10).
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_C2_GARP_WAIT|ENTRY_STICKY:WITHIN_BANDPassed (6)
- MOMENTUM:5.8>=5.5
- INSIDER:OK
- NEWS_BOOST:ANALYST:0.60
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:104d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- ASYMMETRY:-0.8=NEGATIVE
Warning (1)
- 8K_CSUITE_CHANGE:5.02 (officer departure/appointment)
Reward-to-Risk
-0.78
Upside
-8.0%
Downside
10.3%
Sizing output
STARTER
SetupBreakout — Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 69, MACD bullish
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityModerate — Balanced profile
Investment implication
The C-path quality+growth combination triggered the STRONG_BUY_WAIT verdict: quality 9.4 and growth 9.3 both clear their thresholds, with asymmetric R:R of -0.78 supporting the read.
The strongest dimensions are Quality at 9.4, Growth at 9.3, and Sentiment at 6.7; the weakest are Value at 3.2, Insider at 3.7, and Technical at 5.0. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -0.78 and an engine sizing output of STARTER.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1High Quality Franchise Metrics
Trip ifNet margin compresses below 25% for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P2Consistent Earnings Delivery
Trip ifEPS surprise falls below 0% for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P3Valuation Extended Unfavorable Geometry
Trip ifForward P/E compresses below 24 times for 2 consecutive quarter estimates.
- P4Elevated Options Hedging At Technical Peak
Trip ifPut/call ratio falls below 1.0 for 4 consecutive weeks.