Hilton Grand Vacations Inc. (HGV) Stock Analysis
Range Bound setup
Consumer Cyclical · Resorts & Casinos
Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $46.44 — A.R:R 0.2:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Leverage penalty (D/E 5.5): -1.5.
Hilton Grand Vacations develops, sells, and operates timeshare properties under Hilton brands with over 200 properties and 720,000+ members across the U.S., Europe, Canada, Caribbean, Mexico, and Asia. Revenue comes from VOI sales, consumer financing interest, and resort... Read more
Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $46.44 — A.R:R 0.2:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Leverage penalty (D/E 5.5): -1.5. Chart setup: RSI 51 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Score 6.1/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 5/7 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, earnings proximity no date, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- MEDIUMGeographicFlorida, Europe, Hawaii10-K Item 1A: 'some of our properties being concentrated in certain geographic areas including Florida, Europe, Hawaii, South Carolina, California, Arizona, Virginia and Nevada'
Material Events(8-K, last 90d)
- 2026-03-17Item 5.02LOWDavid W. Johnson resigned from Board effective March 16, 2026. Not due to disagreement. Board reduced from 10 to 9 directors. No successor named.SEC filing →
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer
Rating Breakdown
1 floor-breaker·1 ceiling hit
No near-term catalyst priced in. Thesis progression will come from fundamentals grinding, not event reaction.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $46.44 — A.R:R 0.2:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Leverage penalty (D/E 5.5): -1.5. Chart setup: RSI 51 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Prior stop was $43.44. Score 6.1/10, moderate confidence.
Take-profit target: $47.94 (+2.6% upside). Prior stop was $43.44. Stop-loss: $43.44.
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Leverage penalty (D/E 5.5): -1.5; Consecutive earnings misses (3).
Hilton Grand Vacations Inc. trades at a P/E of 25.4 (forward 9.5). TrendMatrix value score: 7.5/10. Verdict: Sell.
14 analysts cover HGV with a consensus score of 3.5/5. Average price target: $55.
What does Hilton Grand Vacations Inc. do?Hilton Grand Vacations develops, sells, and operates timeshare properties under Hilton brands with over 200 properties...
Hilton Grand Vacations develops, sells, and operates timeshare properties under Hilton brands with over 200 properties and 720,000+ members across the U.S., Europe, Canada, Caribbean, Mexico, and Asia. Revenue comes from VOI sales, consumer financing interest, and resort management fees across two segments.