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HBTHBT Financial, Inc.Hold6.3·$31.66-1.77%
HoldModerate Confidence
Investment thesis

HBT Financial screens cheap on an earnings basis with a beat-heavy quarterly track record and firm technical momentum, but the stock has already reached its price target and its risk/reward setup has turned negative, leaving the case better suited to holding than adding here.

Thesis pillars

  • Modest Insider SellingStable
  • Attractive Valuation DiscountStable
  • Consistent Earnings Beat StreakStable
  • +2 more pillars — see the Why tab for full reasoning

Full reasoning →

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HBT Financial, Inc. (HBT) Stock Analysis

Breakout setup · Inst Constrain edge

HoldGrowthModerate Confidence

Financial Services · Banks - Regional

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $31.66, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Near 52-week high (4.3% away).

HBT Financial, Inc. is a Bloomington, Illinois-based bank holding company operating Heartland Bank and Trust Company across 66 full-service branches in Illinois and eastern Iowa. At year-end 2025 the company held $5.1 billion in total assets, $3.5 billion in loans held for... Read more

$31.66+2.4% A.UpsideScore 6.3/10#67 of 223 Banks - Regional
QualityF-score8 / 9FCF yield
IncomeYield2.86%(5y avg 3.38%)Payout39.45%sustainable
Stop $30.02Target $32.43(resistance)A.R:R -1.5:1
Analyst target$32.60+3.0%5 analysts
$32.43our TP
$31.66price
$32.60mean
$31
$34

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $31.66, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Near 52-week high (4.3% away). Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 65, MACD bullish. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Score 6.3/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 6/8 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 19d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.

10-K grounded · weekly refresh

About HBT Financial, Inc.

About HBT Financial, Inc.

HBT Financial held $5.1 billion in total assets, $3.5 billion in loans held for investment and $4.4 billion in deposits as of December 31, 2025, operated through Heartland Bank and Trust Company's 66 full-service branches across Illinois and eastern Iowa. The majority of its loan portfolio consists of commercial and commercial real estate credit, and the bank holds a top-three deposit share in many of its central Illinois markets. Its primary regulators are the Federal Reserve, the Illinois Department of Financial and Professional Regulation and the FDIC.

HBT earns net interest income on loans across regulatory commercial real estate (non-owner-occupied CRE, construction and multi-family), commercial and industrial and owner-occupied CRE, agriculture and farmland, and one-to-four family residential credit, funded primarily by low-cost core deposits built on leading market share in its mid-sized Illinois markets. The bank's agriculture book, rooted in central Illinois farm lending for corn and soybean producers, ties a portion of credit quality to commodity prices, weather and government farm policy. HBT has grown substantially through acquisition: it closed the $109.4 million purchase of Town and Country Financial Corporation in 2023, and on March 1, 2026 completed the $182 million acquisition of CNB Bank Shares, which added $1.8 billion in assets, $1.3 billion in loans and $1.5 billion in deposits across 18 branches in central Illinois, the Chicago MSA and the St. Louis MSA, results not yet reflected in the 10-K's reported financials since the deal closed after year-end.

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HBT's balance sheet still carries scars from the 2022 rate-hike cycle: as of December 31, 2025, the bank held $28.8 million of net unrealized losses on available-for-sale debt securities and $31.9 million of net unrecognized losses on held-to-maturity securities, even after the Federal Reserve cut its target range by a cumulative 175 basis points between September 2024 and the end of 2025, to 3.50%-3.75%. Because the majority of HBT's loan book is commercial and commercial real estate credit, a renewed rate increase or a downturn in office and multi-family cash flows would pressure both loan performance and the securities portfolio simultaneously, a dual channel the 10-K flags as a source of earnings volatility.

See also: Financial Services · Banks - Regional

From HBT Financial, Inc.'s most recent 10-K filing, extracted July 6, 2026.

TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Mon, Jul 27, 202619d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Attractive valuation
Strong growth profile
Positive insider activity
Risks
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining
Near 52-week high (4.3% away)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)14.9
P/E (Fwd)10.6
Mkt Cap$1.2B
EV/EBITDA
Profit Mgn28.3%
ROE10.5%
Rev Growth17.5%
Beta0.51
Dividend2.86%
Rating analysts9

Quality Signals

Piotroski F8/9

Options Flow

P/C1.00neutral
IV56%elevated

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • MEDIUMloan_portfoliocommercial and commercial real estate loans
    10-K Item 1A: 'The majority of our loan portfolio consists of commercial and commercial real estate loans, which may have a higher degree of risk than some other types of loans.'

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

10 dimensions · all in-band

GatesMomentum 4.4<4.5A.R:R -1.5=NEGATIVEInsider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 19d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARBreakoutSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
65 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $29.43Resistance $33.09

Price Targets

$30
$32
A.Upside+2.4%
A.R:R-1.5:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-10.4% upside)
! momentum at 4.4 (below the engine's 4.5 threshold)
! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside

Earnings

B
B
M
M
2/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-27 (19d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is HBT stock a buy right now?

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $31.66, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Near 52-week high (4.3% away). Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 65, MACD bullish. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Target $32.43 (+2.4%), stop $30.02 (−5.5%), A.R:R -1.5:1. Score 6.3/10, moderate confidence.

What is the HBT stock price target?

Take-profit target: $32.43 (+2.4% upside). Target $32.43 (+2.4%), stop $30.02 (−5.5%), A.R:R -1.5:1. Stop-loss: $30.02.

What are the risks of investing in HBT?

Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Near 52-week high (4.3% away).

Is HBT overvalued or undervalued?

HBT Financial, Inc. trades at a P/E of 14.9 (forward 10.6). TrendMatrix value score: 7.4/10. Verdict: Hold.

What do analysts say about HBT?

9 analysts cover HBT with a consensus score of 3.8/5. Average price target: $33.

What does HBT Financial, Inc. do?HBT Financial, Inc. is a Bloomington, Illinois-based bank holding company operating Heartland Bank and Trust Company...

HBT Financial, Inc. is a Bloomington, Illinois-based bank holding company operating Heartland Bank and Trust Company across 66 full-service branches in Illinois and eastern Iowa. At year-end 2025 the company held $5.1 billion in total assets, $3.5 billion in loans held for investment and $4.4 billion in deposits, with the majority of its loan book in commercial and commercial real estate credit. On March 1, 2026, HBT closed its acquisition of CNB Bank Shares, adding $1.8 billion in assets and 18 branches across central Illinois, Chicago and St. Louis.

Related stocks: BWFG (Bankwell Financial Group, Inc.) · COFS (ChoiceOne Financial Services, I) · AROW (Arrow Financial Corporation) · CCNE (CNB Financial Corporation) · NBN (Northeast Bank)
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