Value
7.7/10data confidence 83%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 8.2 |
| P/S | 7.2 |
| Fwd P/E | 9.3 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
| Analyst target | 4.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 10.2x
- ▸PEG: 0.28
- ▸Attractively valued
HBT · Why this verdict
Why HBT Financial (HBT) is rated HOLD
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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VerdictHOLD
Overall score6.6/10
ConfidenceHIGH
MacroRISK_OFF
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
HBT Financial screens cheap on an earnings basis with a beat-heavy quarterly track record and firm technical momentum, but the stock has already reached its price target and its risk/reward setup has turned negative, leaving the case better suited to holding than adding here.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Insider selling has been modest in scale, with the most recent transaction representing only 0.039% of market capitalization. Insider transaction read | Insider transactions should remain low in magnitude relative to market cap, with no acceleration in selling. | →Stable |
| CounterThe insider signal is classified as bearish with no offsetting buying in the past 90 days, so continued one-directional selling could still weigh on sentiment even if individually modest. | ||
The stock is attractively valued, trading at a forward price/earnings multiple of roughly 10.5x with a PEG ratio near 0.25, a combination the data explicitly flags as attractive. Valuation breakdown | The valuation discount should narrow as the forward multiple and PEG ratio re-rate closer to peer norms over the next 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterThe shares have already reached the analyst price target with limited upside remaining, suggesting much of the re-rating case may already be priced in. | ||
HBT has beaten earnings estimates in three of the last four quarters, most recently by 9.7%, supporting a strong earnings beat streak. Earnings track record | The company should continue posting positive EPS surprises averaging above the current ~4.9% pace over the next several quarters. | ↑Improving |
| CounterThe quarter immediately preceding the latest beat came in exactly in-line with estimates, showing the beat streak is not guaranteed every period. | ||
Shares are showing strong technical momentum, trading above the 200-day moving average with rising volume accumulation. Momentum breakdown | Momentum should hold with continued volume accumulation and the stock sustaining its position above the 200-day moving average. | ↑Improving |
| CounterThe stock is technically overbought with an RSI reading of 71, raising the risk of a near-term pullback. | ||
The current setup fails the engine's risk/reward bar, with downside to the stop level outweighing remaining upside to the target, resulting in a recommendation to avoid adding new capital. Engine gate (failed) | The reward-to-risk balance should improve as downside narrows or the target price is raised, moving the ratio back toward positive territory. | →Stable |
| CounterAn earnings report is due in 23 days against a three-of-four beat streak, a catalyst that could push shares higher and reset the risk/reward more favorably. | ||
Insider selling has been modest in scale, with the most recent transaction representing only 0.039% of market capitalization.
→StableInsider transaction read
- Expectation
- Insider transactions should remain low in magnitude relative to market cap, with no acceleration in selling.
CounterThe insider signal is classified as bearish with no offsetting buying in the past 90 days, so continued one-directional selling could still weigh on sentiment even if individually modest.
The stock is attractively valued, trading at a forward price/earnings multiple of roughly 10.5x with a PEG ratio near 0.25, a combination the data explicitly flags as attractive.
→StableValuation breakdown
- Expectation
- The valuation discount should narrow as the forward multiple and PEG ratio re-rate closer to peer norms over the next 12 months.
CounterThe shares have already reached the analyst price target with limited upside remaining, suggesting much of the re-rating case may already be priced in.
HBT has beaten earnings estimates in three of the last four quarters, most recently by 9.7%, supporting a strong earnings beat streak.
↑ImprovingEarnings track record
- Expectation
- The company should continue posting positive EPS surprises averaging above the current ~4.9% pace over the next several quarters.
CounterThe quarter immediately preceding the latest beat came in exactly in-line with estimates, showing the beat streak is not guaranteed every period.
Shares are showing strong technical momentum, trading above the 200-day moving average with rising volume accumulation.
↑ImprovingMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- Momentum should hold with continued volume accumulation and the stock sustaining its position above the 200-day moving average.
CounterThe stock is technically overbought with an RSI reading of 71, raising the risk of a near-term pullback.
The current setup fails the engine's risk/reward bar, with downside to the stop level outweighing remaining upside to the target, resulting in a recommendation to avoid adding new capital.
→StableEngine gate (failed)
- Expectation
- The reward-to-risk balance should improve as downside narrows or the target price is raised, moving the ratio back toward positive territory.
CounterAn earnings report is due in 23 days against a three-of-four beat streak, a catalyst that could push shares higher and reset the risk/reward more favorably.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
5.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 4.4 |
| ROA | 1.0 |
| Gross margin | 0.0 |
| Op margin | 10.0 |
| Net margin | 10.0 |
| Moat | 5.9 |
| Piotroski F | 7.8 |
- ▸Strong margins: 31%
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 7/9
Growth
9.7/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 10.0 |
| EPS growth | 9.4 |
- ▸Strong growth: 44% YoY
Momentum
5.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 5.0 |
| MACD | 9.9 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 9.0 |
| Volume | 0.0 |
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
6.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 6.6 |
| Analyst rating | 6.5 |
| Price target | 6.9 |
- ▸LLM news sentiment: +0.32 (n=5)
- ▸Light analyst coverage (5.0) — signal dampened
Insider
6.9/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 8.7 |
| notable moves | 7.0 |
- ▸No net insider activity — $0 (0.000% of mkt cap)
- ▸Institutions accumulating
Peer rank
5.5/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 2.0 |
| quality rank | 5.9 |
| growth rank | 9.1 |
- ▸Industry growth leader
Technical
4.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 0.5 |
| support resistance | 1.9 |
| 52w position | 9.7 |
| gap | 5.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
6.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 7.0 |
| days to cover | 2.9 |
| volatility | 6.5 |
| put call | 6.7 |
| implied vol | 4.4 |
| beta | 10.0 |
Catalyst
4.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 5.6 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 0.0 |
| dividend safety | 5.5 |
| news activity | 8.0 |
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Maintain position. Not compelling to add more.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_HOLD|L3:NEWS_MOD_NO_UPSIDEPassed (8)
- MOMENTUM:5.0>=4.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_BOOST:ANALYST:0.50
- NEWS_BOOST:ANALYST_CLUSTER(3)
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:94d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- ASYMMETRY:-0.2=NEGATIVE
Warning (1)
- MOMENTUM:5.0<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)
Reward-to-Risk
-0.23
Upside
-1.5%
Downside
6.6%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupBreakout — Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 67, MACD bullish
EdgeInst Constrain — Small cap ($1.3B) below institutional reach
SuitabilityAggressive — MCap $1.3B<$5B
Investment implication
None of the engine's positive-conviction paths (C-quality, D-momentum) triggered — the F-path HOLD reflects balanced signals. Strongest-cleared gate: MOMENTUM:5.0>=4.5. Top dim: Growth at 9.7; weakest: Technical at 4.3. No conviction either direction.
The strongest dimensions are Growth at 9.7, Value at 7.7, and Insider at 6.9; the weakest are Technical at 4.3, Catalyst at 4.9, and Momentum at 5.0. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -0.23 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Attractive Valuation Discount
Trip ifForward price-to-earnings multiple rises above 15x from the current 10.5x, erasing the valuation discount.
- P2Consistent Earnings Beat Streak
Trip ifQuarterly EPS surprise falls below 0% (a miss) for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P3Firm Technical Momentum
Trip ifRelative strength index falls below 30, reversing from the current overbought reading of 71.
- P4Negative Risk Reward Asymmetry
Trip ifThe risk/reward ratio rises above 0, reversing the current -0.95 negative asymmetry reading.
- P5Modest Insider Selling
Trip ifInsider selling as a share of market capitalization exceeds 1%, up sharply from the current 0.039% level.