Groupon generates positive free cash flow (12% margin) despite a GAAP loss and trades 46% below its high with the price 51.2% below the analyst target, but revenue is flat, estimates are falling 37.1% and short interest is 48%.
Thesis pillars
- Fcf Positive Despite Loss→Stable
- Flat Declining Revenue→Stable
- Falling Estimates→Stable
- +2 more pillars — see the Why tab for full reasoning
Pillars as of Oct 24, 2026, based on the 10-K filed Mar 10, 2026
Groupon, Inc. (GRPN) Stock Analysis
Inst Constrain edge
Communication Services · Internet Content & Information
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $16.42: Quality below floor (4.0 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.2/10 and A.R:R 4.5:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: High short interest: 50%; Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum.
Groupon is a global scaled two-sided marketplace that connects consumers to merchants. Consumers access our marketplace through our mobile applications and our websites, which are primarily localized groupon.com sites in thirteen countries. We operate in two segments, North... Read more
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $16.42: Quality below floor (4.0 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.2/10 and A.R:R 4.5:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: High short interest: 50%; Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Score 5.2/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 6/8 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and earnings proximity 7d<=7d. Suitability: speculative.
Recent developments
updated 2026-10-29Recent Developments — Groupon, Inc.
Latest news
- NEWS 9 Consumer Discretionary Stocks Whale Activity In Today’s Session — benzinga Oct 9, 2026 neutral
- NEWS Groupon Stock Climbs Monday: What's Driving the Action? — benzinga Sep 21, 2026 positive
- NEWS Groupon Shareholder Nick Nemeth Urges Board For Faster Buybacks, $120M Cash Target And 10b5-1 Plan — benzinga Sep 21, 2026 neutral
- NEWS Groupon Stock Moves Higher on Q2 EPS Beat — Details — benzinga Aug 6, 2026 positive
- NEWS Groupon Affirms FY2026 Sales Guidance of $513.000M-$523.000M vs $520.254M Est — benzinga Aug 6, 2026 negative
Generated 2026-10-29T12:43:33Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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Rating Breakdown
3 floor-breakers·1 ceiling hit
Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static
No near-term catalyst priced in. Thesis progression will come from fundamentals grinding, not event reaction.static
Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $16.42: Quality below floor (4.0 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.2/10 and A.R:R 4.5:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: High short interest: 50%; Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Prior stop was $15.34. Score 5.2/10, moderate confidence.
Analyst target: $24.37 (+48.4% upside). Prior stop was $15.34. Stop-loss: $15.34.
Quality below floor (4.0 < 4.0).
Groupon, Inc. trades at a P/E of N/A (forward 7.0). TrendMatrix value score: 9.5/10. Verdict: Sell.
9 analysts cover GRPN with a consensus score of 2.4/5. Average price target: $29.
What does Groupon, Inc. do?Groupon is a global scaled two-sided marketplace that connects consumers to merchants. Consumers access our marketplace...
Groupon is a global scaled two-sided marketplace that connects consumers to merchants. Consumers access our marketplace through our mobile applications and our websites, which are primarily localized groupon.com sites in thirteen countries. We operate in two segments, North America and International, and in three categories, Local, Goods and Travel. See Item 8, Note 19, Segment and Geographical Information, for additional information.