Value
9.5/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/S | 9.4 |
| Fwd P/E | 9.7 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
| Analyst target | 9.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 7.0x
- ▸PEG: 0.04
- ▸Attractively valued
GRPN · Why this verdict
Why Groupon (GRPN) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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VerdictSELL
Overall score5.2/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Groupon generates positive free cash flow (12% margin) despite a GAAP loss and trades 46% below its high with the price 51.2% below the analyst target, but revenue is flat, estimates are falling 37.1% and short interest is 48%.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Groupon is free-cash-flow positive despite a GAAP loss, with an FCF margin of 12% and an FCF yield of 8.9%, which cushions the weak accounting profit. Quality breakdown | FCF margin should stay above 8% over the next 12 months while GAAP results move toward break-even. | →Stable |
| CounterPositive free cash flow alongside a net loss can reflect working-capital timing or non-cash charges, and with no moat and a Rule of 40 reading of 11 it may not be durable. | ||
Revenue is slightly declining (-1%), with the latest quarter at about $124.7M versus $125.7M a year earlier, so the top line is not growing. Growth breakdown | Quarterly revenue should return to growth and reach the $129.4M next-quarter estimate within 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterRevenue has been stuck in a $115M to $133M range for two years, so a stable base may be all the company can deliver. | ||
Earnings estimates have fallen 37.1% over the last 30 days, which points to analysts cutting expectations ahead of the 2026-11-05 report. Catalyst breakdown | Estimate revisions should stabilize so that 30-day estimate changes are no worse than -10%. | →Stable |
| CounterThe company beat in August ($-0.04 versus $-0.06) and a lowered bar makes a beat more likely. | ||
EPS surprises are extreme in both directions, including -$2.92 versus +$0.03 in November 2025, and 2 of the last 4 reports were misses. Avg surprise pct | EPS should land within 25% of the estimate in each of the next four reports. | →Stable |
| CounterLarge one-off charges drive the worst misses, and the last report beat by 29%, which may signal that results are normalizing. | ||
The $16.12 price is 51.2% below the $24.37 analyst target, yet short interest is 48% and momentum is 1.7/10, so the market is betting against the recovery. Upside pct | Price should close part of the gap to the target as short interest falls below 30%. | →Stable |
| CounterHeavy short interest with an RSI of 24 below the 200-day average shows sellers are in control, and a squeeze would be needed to close the gap. | ||
Groupon is free-cash-flow positive despite a GAAP loss, with an FCF margin of 12% and an FCF yield of 8.9%, which cushions the weak accounting profit.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- FCF margin should stay above 8% over the next 12 months while GAAP results move toward break-even.
CounterPositive free cash flow alongside a net loss can reflect working-capital timing or non-cash charges, and with no moat and a Rule of 40 reading of 11 it may not be durable.
Revenue is slightly declining (-1%), with the latest quarter at about $124.7M versus $125.7M a year earlier, so the top line is not growing.
→StableGrowth breakdown
- Expectation
- Quarterly revenue should return to growth and reach the $129.4M next-quarter estimate within 12 months.
CounterRevenue has been stuck in a $115M to $133M range for two years, so a stable base may be all the company can deliver.
Earnings estimates have fallen 37.1% over the last 30 days, which points to analysts cutting expectations ahead of the 2026-11-05 report.
→StableCatalyst breakdown
- Expectation
- Estimate revisions should stabilize so that 30-day estimate changes are no worse than -10%.
CounterThe company beat in August ($-0.04 versus $-0.06) and a lowered bar makes a beat more likely.
EPS surprises are extreme in both directions, including -$2.92 versus +$0.03 in November 2025, and 2 of the last 4 reports were misses.
→StableAvg surprise pct
- Expectation
- EPS should land within 25% of the estimate in each of the next four reports.
CounterLarge one-off charges drive the worst misses, and the last report beat by 29%, which may signal that results are normalizing.
The $16.12 price is 51.2% below the $24.37 analyst target, yet short interest is 48% and momentum is 1.7/10, so the market is betting against the recovery.
→StableUpside pct
- Expectation
- Price should close part of the gap to the target as short interest falls below 30%.
CounterHeavy short interest with an RSI of 24 below the 200-day average shows sellers are in control, and a squeeze would be needed to close the gap.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
4.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROA | 0.5 |
| Gross margin | 10.0 |
| Op margin | 0.8 |
| Net margin | 0.0 |
| Current ratio | 3.2 |
| FCF quality | 6.3 |
| Moat | 5.2 |
| Rule of 40 | 3.0 |
| Piotroski F | 6.7 |
- ▸FCF-positive despite GAAP loss (FCF margin 12%, FCF yield 8.7%)
- ▸No competitive moat
- ▸Rule of 40: 11 (fail)
Growth
6.2/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 2.3 |
| EPS growth | 10.0 |
- ▸Declining revenue: -1%
Momentum
1.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 3.0 |
| MACD | 3.2 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 2.2 |
| Volume | 0.0 |
- ▸Capitulation risk (RSI 29, below 200MA)
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Below 200-MA but MA still rising (+1.3%/30d) — pullback in uptrend, not confirmed weakness
Sentiment
5.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
| Price target | 9.9 |
| erm sentiment | 0.0 |
- ▸Analyst upside: 74%
- ▸Estimates falling as sentiment proxy (-37.1%)
Insider
6.0/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 10.0 |
| notable moves | 3.0 |
- ▸No net insider activity — $0 (0.000% of mkt cap)
- ▸Institutions accumulating
Peer rank
3.3/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 6.4 |
| quality rank | 0.4 |
| growth rank | 1.4 |
Technical
5.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 7.4 |
| support resistance | 8.4 |
| 52w position | 1.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
3.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 0.0 |
| days to cover | 0.0 |
| volatility | 0.0 |
| put call | 7.9 |
| implied vol | 0.0 |
| max pain risk | 7.0 |
| beta | 10.0 |
- ▸High short interest: 50%
- ▸High IV: 109%
Catalyst
2.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 1.0 |
| earnings history | 3.3 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 0.0 |
- ▸Estimates down -37.1% (30d)
- ▸Earnings concerns: 2B/2M
- ▸Earnings in 7 days
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Quality below minimum threshold.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L1:HARD_BLOCK:QUALITY_FLOORPassed (6)
- ASYMMETRY:4.6>=1.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (2)
- MOMENTUM:1.9<4.5
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:7d<=7d
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
4.57
Upside
+48.1%
Downside
10.5%
Sizing output
AVOID
Setup— — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeInst Constrain — Small cap ($0.7B) below institutional reach
SuitabilitySpeculative — Drawdown -45% (>40% off 52w high)
Investment implication
The SELL_IF_HOLDING verdict reflects the MOMENTUM gate's 1.9<4.5 outcome against Value at 9.5 and asymmetric R:R of 4.57.
The strongest dimensions are Value at 9.5, Growth at 6.2, and Insider at 6.0; the weakest are Momentum at 1.9, Catalyst at 2.3, and Peer rank at 3.3. The V9 engine flagged 2 failed gates, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 4.57 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Fcf Positive Despite Loss
Trip ifFree cash flow margin falls below 5% from the current 12%.
- P2Flat Declining Revenue
Trip ifQuarterly revenue falls below $115M from the latest $124.7M.
- P3Falling Estimates
Trip ifEarnings estimates fall by more than 50% over 30 days from the current -37.1%.
- P4Erratic Earnings Record
Trip ifEPS surprise stays below -25% for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P5Analyst Upside Vs Short Interest
Trip ifPrice falls below $15.34, the stop level, from the current $16.12.