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GNWGenworth Financial IncSell4.3·$8.58-0.92%
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Genworth Financial Inc (GNW) Stock Analysis

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5Moderate Confidence

Financial Services · Insurance - Life

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $8.58: Quality below floor (3.6 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.3/10 and A.R:R 1.8:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum; Below long-term trend.

Genworth Financial provides private mortgage insurance via majority-owned Enact Holdings (NYSE: ACT) and is developing CareScout aging-care services; legacy Closed Block runs off LTC/life/annuity products. Enact contributed $407M in capital returns to Genworth in 2025; CareScout... Read more

$8.58+9.0% A.UpsideScore 4.3/10#14 of 15 Insurance - Life
QualityF-score6 / 9FCF yield30.54%
Stop $8.20Target $9.35(analyst − 15%)A.R:R 1.8:1
Analyst target$11.00+28.2%1 analysts
Range unavailable (1 analysts)

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $8.58: Quality below floor (3.6 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.3/10 and A.R:R 1.8:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum; Below long-term trend. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Score 4.3/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 7/8 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 50d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum. Suitability: aggressive.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-06-09

Recent Developments — Genworth Financial Inc

Generated 2026-06-15T18:11:46Z.

TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Wed, Jul 29, 202650d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
No bull case signals
Risks
Quality below floor (3.6 < 4.0)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)16.5
P/E (Fwd)23.8
Mkt Cap$3.3B
EV/EBITDA8.0
Profit Mgn3.0%
ROE3.5%
Rev Growth-0.5%
Beta0.87
DividendNone
Rating analysts6

Quality Signals

Piotroski F6/9

Options Flow

P/C0.02bullish
IV57%elevated
Max Pain$4-53.4% vs spot

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • LOWCustomerlargest customer12%
    10-K Item 1: 'Enact's largest customer accounted for 22% of its new insurance written and 12% of its total revenues'
  • MEDIUMCustomerlargest five lender customers33%
    10-K Item 1: 'Enact's largest five lender customers generated 33% of its new insurance written in 2025'

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

4 floor-breakers

Revenue shrinking — -0.5% YoY. Growth thesis broken unless recovery story develops.static

Earnings Growth
0.3
Revenue Growth
2.4
Declining revenue: -0%

Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static

Ma Position
2.2
Volume
2.6
Macd
2.8
Rsi
3.0
Obv
4.5
Capitulation risk (RSI 29, below 200MA)Below 200-MA but MA still rising (+1.8%/30d) — pullback in uptrend, not confirmed weakness

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Quality Rank
2.0
Growth Rank
2.0
Value Rank
5.1

Quality below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Gross Margin
0.0
Roa
0.3
Roe
1.2
Net Margin
1.5
Operating Margin
3.1
Moat
4.6
Current Ratio
5.0
Piotroski F
6.7
Fcf Quality
10.0
Excellent cash conversion: 465% FCF/NINo competitive moat
GatesMomentum 3.0<4.5A.R:R 1.8 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 50d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
29 · Oversold
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $8.27Resistance $9.34

Price Targets

$8
$9
A.Upside+9.0%
A.R:R1.8:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Quality below floor (3.6 < 4.0)
! momentum at 3.0 (below the engine's 4.5 threshold)

Earnings

B
B
M
M
2/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-29 (50d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is GNW stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $8.58: Quality below floor (3.6 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.3/10 and A.R:R 1.8:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum; Below long-term trend. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Prior stop was $8.20. Score 4.3/10, moderate confidence.

What is the GNW stock price target?

Take-profit target: $9.35 (+9.0% upside). Prior stop was $8.20. Stop-loss: $8.20.

What are the risks of investing in GNW?

Quality below floor (3.6 < 4.0).

Is GNW overvalued or undervalued?

Genworth Financial Inc trades at a P/E of 16.5 (forward 23.8). TrendMatrix value score: 6.4/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about GNW?

6 analysts cover GNW with a consensus score of 3.8/5. Average price target: $11.

What does Genworth Financial Inc do?Genworth Financial provides private mortgage insurance via majority-owned Enact Holdings (NYSE: ACT) and is developing...

Genworth Financial provides private mortgage insurance via majority-owned Enact Holdings (NYSE: ACT) and is developing CareScout aging-care services; legacy Closed Block runs off LTC/life/annuity products. Enact contributed $407M in capital returns to Genworth in 2025; CareScout expanded its network to ~790 home care providers with 1,000+ locations nationally.

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