Four consecutive earnings beats averaging nearly 14% above consensus, a forward P/E of 4.5x, and free cash flow converting at 166% of net income paint an attractively valued, cash-generative business; the near-term constraint is that the share price has already moved above the near-term resistance target, leaving no upside buffer and making patience the appropriate posture until price creates room.
Thesis pillars
- Strong Free Cash Conversion→Stable
- Perfect Earnings Beat Streak↑Improving
- Attractive Forward Valuation→Stable
- +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning
Pillars as of Jul 3, 2026, based on the 10-K filed Feb 19, 2026
Lincoln National Corporation (LNC) Stock Analysis
Range Bound setup
Financial Services · Insurance - Life
Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $40.66, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.9).
Lincoln National Corporation sells annuities, life insurance, group protection, and retirement plan services through four segments, distributed via approximately 450 Lincoln Financial Distributors wholesalers across wire/regional firms, independent planners, and financial... Read more
Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $40.66, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.9). Chart setup: RSI 51 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Mixed signals. Hold existing position. Score 6.7/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 5/8 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, news events none recent, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio and earnings proximity 6d<=7d. Suitability: moderate.
About Lincoln National Corporation
About Lincoln National Corporation
Lincoln National Corporation sells annuities, life insurance, group protection, and retirement plan services through four segments, distributed via Lincoln Financial Distributors, which employed approximately 450 internal and external wholesalers as of December 31, 2025. The company's insurance subsidiaries are subject to supervision by state insurance departments in each state where licensed and are regulated principally by the domiciliary jurisdiction; the NAIC and SEC provide additional oversight of variable and broker-dealer activities.
Lincoln National generates revenue from mortality and expense assessments on variable annuity and variable universal life separate account balances, spread income on fixed annuities and universal life products, fee charges, and group protection premiums. The Annuities segment offers variable, fixed indexed, and registered index-linked annuities (RILA) under the Lincoln Level Advantage product suite with optional guaranteed withdrawal, income, and death benefit riders hedged using derivatives. The Life Insurance segment covers UL, IUL, VUL, linked-benefit life (Lincoln MoneyGuard, combining life with long-term care access), and term products; in 2024 Lincoln National sold its wealth management business, Lincoln Financial Network. The Group Protection segment distributes through employee benefit brokers and third-party administrators, while Retirement Plan Services rounds out the portfolio.
Show full overview
Lincoln National's spread-dependent businesses — principally fixed annuities and universal life products — face dual-directional interest rate risk. The 10-K discloses that declining rates compress spreads on guaranteed minimum crediting products, while rising rates can trigger elevated surrenders; the Annuities segment experienced increased outflows in 2024 and 2025 due to the elevated interest rate environment and strong equity markets. The NAIC's adoption of VM-22 (principle-based reserving for fixed annuities, effective January 1, 2026, mandatory by January 1, 2029) and a new economic scenario generator for VM-20/VM-21 could affect statutory reserves and required capital upon full adoption, and the NAIC's temporary IMR guidance — scheduled to sunset December 31, 2026 — currently supports Lincoln National's statutory capital and RBC ratio.
See also: Financial Services · Insurance - Life
From Lincoln National Corporation's most recent 10-K filing, extracted June 11, 2026.
Recent developments
updated 2026-10-29Recent Developments — Lincoln National Corporation
Latest news
- NEWS Lincoln National Corp (LNC) Stock Up 4.0% and Still Undervalued -- GF Score: 69/100 - GuruFocus — GuruFocus positive
- NEWS LNC Lincoln delivers 15.2 percent Q4 2025 EPS beat, but shares dip 1.07 percent in muted investor reaction. - Management — Newser positive
- NEWS Despite Fast-paced Momentum, Lincoln National (LNC) Is Still a Bargain Stock - MSN — MSN positive
- NEWS Lincoln National Stock (US5341871094): Q4 2025 Earnings Beat Estimates with Strong EPS and Revenue G - AD HOC NEWS — AD HOC NEWS positive
- NEWS Vest Financial LLC Boosts Stock Holdings in Lincoln National Corporation $LNC - MarketBeat — MarketBeat neutral
Generated 2026-10-29T11:53:51Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Material Events(8-K, last 90d)
- 2026-04-16Item 5.02LOWBrian Kroll, EVP and Head of Retail Life and Annuity Solutions, notified Lincoln National of his intention to retire effective June 1, 2026. The filing states this is part of a planned succession for the Retail Life and Annuities businesses. No explicit successor named in the filing.SEC filing →
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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Rating Breakdown
1 ceiling hit
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $40.66, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.9). Chart setup: RSI 51 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Mixed signals. Hold existing position. Analyst target $41.61 (+2.3%), stop $38.60 (−5.3%), A.R:R 0.4:1. Score 6.7/10, moderate confidence.
Analyst target: $41.61 (+2.3% upside). Analyst target $41.61 (+2.3%), stop $38.60 (−5.3%), A.R:R 0.4:1. Stop-loss: $38.60.
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.9); Earnings in 6 days (event risk).
Lincoln National Corporation trades at a P/E of 3.5 (forward 4.7). TrendMatrix value score: 9.0/10. Verdict: Hold.
19 analysts cover LNC with a consensus score of 3.4/5. Average price target: $48.
What does Lincoln National Corporation do?Lincoln National Corporation sells annuities, life insurance, group protection, and retirement plan services through...
Lincoln National Corporation sells annuities, life insurance, group protection, and retirement plan services through four segments, distributed via approximately 450 Lincoln Financial Distributors wholesalers across wire/regional firms, independent planners, and financial institutions. The company is an Indiana holding company headquartered in Radnor, Pennsylvania, with insurance subsidiaries regulated by state insurance departments and the NAIC.