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LNCLincoln National CorporationHold5.9·$38.05+2.01%
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Lincoln National Corporation (LNC) Stock Analysis

Recovery setup

HoldVALUE-TRAP 1/5Moderate Confidence

Financial Services · Insurance - Life

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $38.05, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Below 200-day MA.

Lincoln National Corporation is a holding company operating insurance and retirement businesses through four segments: Annuities, Life Insurance, Group Protection, and Retirement Plan Services, primarily in the U.S. Revenue is generated from premiums, cost of insurance charges,... Read more

$38.05-1.5% A.UpsideScore 5.9/10#6 of 15 Insurance - Life
QualityF-score6 / 9FCF yield40.26%
IncomeYield4.83%(5y avg 4.94%)Payout19.69%sustainable
Stop $36.09Target $37.47(resistance)A.R:R -0.2:1
Analyst target$42.58+11.9%12 analysts
$37.47our TP
$38.05price
$42.58mean
$33
$56

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $38.05, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Below 200-day MA. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 65. Mixed signals. Hold existing position. Score 5.9/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 6/9 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, news events none recent, earnings proximity 44d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: moderate.

TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Thu, Jul 30, 202644d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (4/4)
Attractive valuation
Margin of safety: 73%
Risks
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining
Below 200-day MA

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)4.1
P/E (Fwd)4.5
Mkt Cap$7.1B
EV/EBITDA
Profit Mgn9.2%
ROE18.8%
Rev Growth12.5%
Beta1.17
Dividend4.83%
Rating analysts19

Quality Signals

Piotroski F6/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C0.49bullish
IV53%elevated
Max Pain$23-40.9% vs spot

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-04-16Item 5.02LOW
    Brian Kroll, EVP and Head of Retail Life and Annuity Solutions of Lincoln National Corporation, notified the Company of his intention to retire effective June 1, 2026. This is described as part of a planned succession for the Retail Life and Annuities businesses.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker

Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Bollinger
0.0
Support Resistance
0.4
52w Position
6.6
GatesA.R:R -0.2=NEGATIVEDeath cross (50MA < 200MA)Executive change: officer departure/appointmentMomentum 6.0>=5.5Insider activity: OKNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 44d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARRecoverySuitability: Moderate
RSI
65 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $33.22Resistance $38.23

Price Targets

$36
$37
A.Upside-1.5%
A.R:R-0.2:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-2.6% upside)
! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside

Earnings

B
B
B
B
4/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-30 (44d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is LNC stock a buy right now?

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $38.05, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Below 200-day MA. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 65. Mixed signals. Hold existing position. Target $37.47 (-1.5%), stop $36.09 (−5.4%), A.R:R -0.2:1. Score 5.9/10, moderate confidence.

What is the LNC stock price target?

Take-profit target: $37.47 (-1.5% upside). Target $37.47 (-1.5%), stop $36.09 (−5.4%), A.R:R -0.2:1. Stop-loss: $36.09.

What are the risks of investing in LNC?

Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Below 200-day MA.

Is LNC overvalued or undervalued?

Lincoln National Corporation trades at a P/E of 4.1 (forward 4.5). TrendMatrix value score: 8.2/10. Verdict: Hold.

What do analysts say about LNC?

19 analysts cover LNC with a consensus score of 3.4/5. Average price target: $43.

What does Lincoln National Corporation do?Lincoln National Corporation is a holding company operating insurance and retirement businesses through four segments:...

Lincoln National Corporation is a holding company operating insurance and retirement businesses through four segments: Annuities, Life Insurance, Group Protection, and Retirement Plan Services, primarily in the U.S. Revenue is generated from premiums, cost of insurance charges, investment income, and advisory fees; products are distributed through ~450 LFD wholesalers via financial intermediaries.

Related stocks: FG (F&G Annuities & Life, Inc.) · AFL (AFLAC Incorporated) · PRI (Primerica, Inc.) · PUK (Prudential Public Limited Compa) · MFC (Manulife Financial Corporation)
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