Toast has delivered four consecutive earnings beats with an average positive surprise of 18.3% and 22% year-over-year revenue growth, supported by 143% free cash flow conversion, yet the stock trades below its 200-day moving average with a confirmed downtrend, creating a tension between strong fundamentals and weak near-term technicals. Analyst consensus implies 22% upside to $30.49.
Thesis pillars
- Strong Revenue Growth Trajectory→Stable
- Perfect Earnings Beat Streak↑Improving
- High Free Cash Conversion→Stable
- +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning
Toast, Inc. (TOST) Stock Analysis
Momentum Cont setup
Technology · Software - Infrastructure
Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $32.50, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Earnings in 5 days (event risk).
Toast provides a cloud-based platform for restaurants covering point-of-sale, payment processing, payroll, marketing, and vendor management, serving approximately 20% of the U.S. restaurant market as of December 31, 2025. The company earns revenue through SaaS subscriptions,... Read more
Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $32.50, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Earnings in 5 days (event risk). Chart setup: Trend continuation, RSI 70, MACD bullish. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Score 6.4/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 6/9 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio and earnings proximity 5d<=7d. Suitability: aggressive.
About Toast, Inc.
About Toast, Inc.
Toast's restaurant-focused platform reached approximately 20% of the U.S. restaurant market as of December 31, 2025, with 6,500 employees distributed across North America, Europe, and Asia. The company's open API connects over 200 third-party technology partners spanning reservations, inventory, accounting, marketing, and online ordering. Toast's proprietary Android-based software underpins a stack of restaurant-grade hardware—fixed POS terminals, handheld devices, self-service kiosks, and Kitchen Display Systems—all operating on a single data platform.
Toast generates revenue from four streams: SaaS subscription fees, payment processing take-rates, hardware sales, and financial technology services. SaaS modules span scheduling, payroll, marketing, loyalty, and vendor management, built on a single employee and transaction record that synchronizes across locations. Payment processing runs through Toast-issued terminals and online channels; the company holds PCI-DSS Level 1 certification assessed annually by an independent security organization. Toast Capital offers working-capital loans to eligible restaurants through a bank partner, repaid automatically through daily transaction deductions, with approved borrowers able to access funds as soon as the next business day. A majority of customers are small- and medium-sized businesses, which the 10-K identifies as more susceptible to economic downturns than enterprise accounts. Cloud infrastructure runs on Amazon Web Services.
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Toast's hardware supply chain may impact service delivery if third-party manufacturers become unwilling or unable to fulfill orders. The 10-K discloses that Toast does not hold long-term agreements with all hardware manufacturers and suppliers, and finding replacement sources that meet restaurant-grade durability standards may not be possible on short notice. Separately, small- and medium-sized restaurant customers face higher sensitivity to economic cycles, and a sector-wide downturn could simultaneously compress payment volumes and increase customer attrition across the platform.
See also: Technology · Software - Infrastructure
From Toast, Inc.'s most recent 10-K filing, extracted June 16, 2026.
Recent developments
updated 2026-07-31Recent Developments — Toast, Inc.
Latest news
- NEWS Toast (TOST) Stock Declines While Market Improves: Some Information for Investors - Eastern Progress — Eastern Progress negative
- NEWS Toast (TOST) stock falls amid market uptick: What investors need to know - MSN — MSN negative
- NEWS Why Is Toast (TOST) Stock Soaring Today - The Globe and Mail — The Globe and Mail positive
- NEWS Toast Shares Heat Up: TOST Joining S&P MidCap 400 - Toast (NYSE:TOST) - Benzinga — Benzinga positive
- NEWS Toast AI Strategy: Will Agents Drive Restaurant Growth? - TradingView — TradingView positive
Generated 2026-07-31T22:42:45Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
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Quality Signals
Options Flow
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Rating Breakdown
1 floor-breaker·1 ceiling hit
Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $32.50, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Earnings in 5 days (event risk). Chart setup: Trend continuation, RSI 70, MACD bullish. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Target $32.40 (-0.3%), stop $30.55 (−6.4%), A.R:R -0.3:1. Score 6.4/10, moderate confidence.
Take-profit target: $32.40 (-4.8% upside). Target $32.40 (-0.3%), stop $30.55 (−6.4%), A.R:R -0.3:1. Stop-loss: $30.55.
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Earnings in 5 days (event risk).
Toast, Inc. trades at a P/E of 48.7 (forward 19.3). TrendMatrix value score: 5.6/10. Verdict: Hold.
37 analysts cover TOST with a consensus score of 3.8/5. Average price target: $35.
What does Toast, Inc. do?Toast provides a cloud-based platform for restaurants covering point-of-sale, payment processing, payroll, marketing,...
Toast provides a cloud-based platform for restaurants covering point-of-sale, payment processing, payroll, marketing, and vendor management, serving approximately 20% of the U.S. restaurant market as of December 31, 2025. The company earns revenue through SaaS subscriptions, payment processing fees, and hardware sales, supplemented by Toast Capital loans. Over 200 third-party partners integrate with Toast's APIs.