Toast has delivered four consecutive earnings beats with an average positive surprise of 18.3% and 22% year-over-year revenue growth, supported by 143% free cash flow conversion, yet the stock trades below its 200-day moving average with a confirmed downtrend, creating a tension between strong fundamentals and weak near-term technicals. Analyst consensus implies 22% upside to $30.49.
Thesis pillars
- Strong Revenue Growth Trajectory→Stable
- Perfect Earnings Beat Streak↓Deteriorating
- High Free Cash Conversion→Stable
- +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning
Pillars as of Jul 3, 2026, based on the 10-K filed Feb 18, 2026
Toast, Inc. (TOST) Stock Analysis
Range Bound setup
Technology · Software - Infrastructure
Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $31.94, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Thin upside margin: 9.4%; Sector modifier (Technology): -0.8.
Toast provides a cloud-based platform for restaurants covering point-of-sale, payment processing, payroll, marketing, and vendor management, serving approximately 20% of the U.S. restaurant market as of December 31, 2025. The company earns revenue through SaaS subscriptions,... Read more
Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $31.94, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Thin upside margin: 9.4%; Sector modifier (Technology): -0.8. Chart setup: RSI 57 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position. | News modifier +1 (SELL_IF_HOLDING → HOLD_IF_HOLDING) Score 6.2/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 5/8 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio and earnings proximity 5d<=7d. Suitability: aggressive.
About Toast, Inc.
About Toast, Inc.
Toast's restaurant-focused platform reached approximately 20% of the U.S. restaurant market as of December 31, 2025, with 6,500 employees distributed across North America, Europe, and Asia. The company's open API connects over 200 third-party technology partners spanning reservations, inventory, accounting, marketing, and online ordering. Toast's proprietary Android-based software underpins a stack of restaurant-grade hardware—fixed POS terminals, handheld devices, self-service kiosks, and Kitchen Display Systems—all operating on a single data platform.
Toast generates revenue from four streams: SaaS subscription fees, payment processing take-rates, hardware sales, and financial technology services. SaaS modules span scheduling, payroll, marketing, loyalty, and vendor management, built on a single employee and transaction record that synchronizes across locations. Payment processing runs through Toast-issued terminals and online channels; the company holds PCI-DSS Level 1 certification assessed annually by an independent security organization. Toast Capital offers working-capital loans to eligible restaurants through a bank partner, repaid automatically through daily transaction deductions, with approved borrowers able to access funds as soon as the next business day. A majority of customers are small- and medium-sized businesses, which the 10-K identifies as more susceptible to economic downturns than enterprise accounts. Cloud infrastructure runs on Amazon Web Services.
Show full overview
Toast's hardware supply chain may impact service delivery if third-party manufacturers become unwilling or unable to fulfill orders. The 10-K discloses that Toast does not hold long-term agreements with all hardware manufacturers and suppliers, and finding replacement sources that meet restaurant-grade durability standards may not be possible on short notice. Separately, small- and medium-sized restaurant customers face higher sensitivity to economic cycles, and a sector-wide downturn could simultaneously compress payment volumes and increase customer attrition across the platform.
See also: Technology · Software - Infrastructure
From Toast, Inc.'s most recent 10-K filing, extracted June 16, 2026.
Recent developments
updated 2026-10-29Recent Developments — Toast, Inc.
Latest news
- NEWS Toast's AI, Enterprise and Retail Push Point to a Broader Growth Shift - TradingView — TradingView positive
- NEWS Toast's AI and Market Expansion Could Reshape Its Long-Term Growth - TradingView — TradingView positive
- NEWS Toast's AI and Market Expansion Could Reshape Its Long-Term Growth - tradingview.com — tradingview.com positive
- NEWS Is TOST Stock Attractive as Growth Slows and Profitability Improves? - TradingView — TradingView neutral
- NEWS Is TOST Stock Attractive as Growth Slows and Profitability Improves? - tradingview.com — tradingview.com positive
Generated 2026-10-29T11:08:52Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
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Quality Signals
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Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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Rating Breakdown
1 ceiling hit
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $31.94, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Thin upside margin: 9.4%; Sector modifier (Technology): -0.8. Chart setup: RSI 57 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position. | News modifier +1 (SELL_IF_HOLDING → HOLD_IF_HOLDING) Analyst target $34.93 (+9.4%), stop $29.70 (−7.5%), A.R:R 0.9:1. Score 6.2/10, moderate confidence.
Analyst target: $34.93 (+9.4% upside). Analyst target $34.93 (+9.4%), stop $29.70 (−7.5%), A.R:R 0.9:1. Stop-loss: $29.70.
Thin upside margin: 9.4%; Sector modifier (Technology): -0.8; Earnings in 5 days (event risk).
Toast, Inc. trades at a P/E of 40.4 (forward 18.4). TrendMatrix value score: 6.1/10. Verdict: Hold.
38 analysts cover TOST with a consensus score of 3.8/5. Average price target: $39.
What does Toast, Inc. do?Toast provides a cloud-based platform for restaurants covering point-of-sale, payment processing, payroll, marketing,...
Toast provides a cloud-based platform for restaurants covering point-of-sale, payment processing, payroll, marketing, and vendor management, serving approximately 20% of the U.S. restaurant market as of December 31, 2025. The company earns revenue through SaaS subscriptions, payment processing fees, and hardware sales, supplemented by Toast Capital loans. Over 200 third-party partners integrate with Toast's APIs.