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TOSTToast, Inc.Hold6.4·$24.92+0.93%
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Toast, Inc. (TOST) Stock Analysis

Recovery setup

HoldVALUE-TRAP 1/5Moderate Confidence

Technology · Software - Infrastructure

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $24.92, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reason: Below 200-MA, MA slope -8.8%/30d (confirmed downtrend).

Toast is a cloud-based, all-in-one software and payment platform built exclusively for restaurants, integrating point-of-sale, digital ordering, payroll, inventory, marketing, and payment processing in a single system. Revenue is generated from SaaS subscriptions, financial... Read more

$24.92+22.8% A.UpsideScore 6.4/10#10 of 77 Software - Infrastructure
QualityF-score7 / 9FCF yield4.09%
Stop $23.08Target $30.49(analyst − 10%)A.R:R 2.4:1
Analyst target$33.88+36.0%25 analysts
$30.49our TP
$24.92price
$33.88mean
$45

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $24.92, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reason: Below 200-MA, MA slope -8.8%/30d (confirmed downtrend). Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 58. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Score 6.4/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 8/10 gates (positive momentum, favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news boost analyst 0.70, earnings proximity 51d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Suitability: aggressive.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-06-15
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Tue, Aug 4, 202651d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (4/4)
Strong growth profile
Analyst upside: 23%
Risks
Below 200-MA, MA slope -8.8%/30d (confirmed downtrend)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)37.0
P/E (Fwd)14.6
Mkt Cap$14.4B
EV/EBITDA30.1
Profit Mgn6.4%
ROE22.5%
Rev Growth21.9%
Beta1.76
DividendNone
Rating analysts36

Quality Signals

Piotroski F7/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C0.44bullish
IV63%elevated

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker·1 ceiling hit

Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

52w Position
0.0
Bollinger
4.3
Gap
5.0
Support Resistance
5.8
GatesMomentum 5.4<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)Death cross (50MA < 200MA)Momentum 5.4>=4.5A.R:R 2.4 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS BOOST ANALYST 0.70EARNINGS PROXIMITY 51d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARRecoverySuitability: Aggressive
RSI
58 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $22.44Resistance $28.16

Price Targets

$23
$30
A.Upside+22.4%
A.R:R2.4:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Analyst Consensus

Analysts36
Consensus3.8/5
Avg Target$34

Earnings

B
B
B
B
4/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-08-04 (51d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is TOST stock a buy right now?

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $24.92, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reason: Below 200-MA, MA slope -8.8%/30d (confirmed downtrend). Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 58. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Target $30.49 (+22.4%), stop $23.08 (−8.0%), A.R:R 2.4:1. Score 6.4/10, moderate confidence.

What is the TOST stock price target?

Take-profit target: $30.49 (+22.8% upside). Target $30.49 (+22.4%), stop $23.08 (−8.0%), A.R:R 2.4:1. Stop-loss: $23.08.

What are the risks of investing in TOST?

Below 200-MA, MA slope -8.8%/30d (confirmed downtrend).

Is TOST overvalued or undervalued?

Toast, Inc. trades at a P/E of 37.0 (forward 14.6). TrendMatrix value score: 6.7/10. Verdict: Hold.

What do analysts say about TOST?

36 analysts cover TOST with a consensus score of 3.8/5. Average price target: $34.

What does Toast, Inc. do?Toast is a cloud-based, all-in-one software and payment platform built exclusively for restaurants, integrating...

Toast is a cloud-based, all-in-one software and payment platform built exclusively for restaurants, integrating point-of-sale, digital ordering, payroll, inventory, marketing, and payment processing in a single system. Revenue is generated from SaaS subscriptions, financial technology (payment processing) fees, and hardware sales; the company estimates US restaurant locations on its platform represent approximately 20% of the US restaurant market. As of December 31, 2025, the company had approximately 6,500 employees worldwide.

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