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MDBMongoDB, Inc.Sell5.4·$343.28-3.14%
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MongoDB, Inc. (MDB) Stock Analysis

Range Bound setup

SellVALUE-TRAP 3/5Moderate Confidence

Technology · Software - Infrastructure

Sell if holding. At $343.28, A.R:R 0.4:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Thin upside margin: 5.9%; Concentration risk — Product: Atlas (73.0%).

MongoDB offers a cloud-hosted database-as-a-service platform (Atlas) and enterprise self-managed database (MongoDB Enterprise Advanced) used by developers globally across all major cloud providers. Atlas represented 73% of total revenue in fiscal year ended January 31, 2026; the... Read more

$343.28+5.9% A.UpsideScore 5.4/10#47 of 77 Software - Infrastructure
QualityF-score6 / 9FCF yield1.88%
Stop $318.80Target $363.11(analyst − 8%)A.R:R 0.4:1
Analyst target$394.68+15.0%36 analysts
$363.11our TP
$343.28price
$394.68mean
$273
$545

Sell if holding. At $343.28, A.R:R 0.4:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Thin upside margin: 5.9%; Concentration risk — Product: Atlas (73.0%). Chart setup: RSI 53 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Score 5.4/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 5/8 gates (clean insider activity, news events none recent, earnings proximity 73d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-06-14

Recent Developments — MongoDB, Inc.

Generated 2026-06-15T18:11:46Z.

TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Wed, Aug 26, 202673d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (4/4)
Strong growth profile
Risks
Concentration risk — Product: Atlas (73.0%)
Thin upside margin: 5.9%
Leverage penalty (D/E 2.0): -1.0

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)
P/E (Fwd)46.7
Mkt Cap$27.6B
EV/EBITDA-314.6
Profit Mgn-1.1%
ROE-1.0%
Rev Growth25.2%
Beta1.55
DividendNone
Rating analysts45

Quality Signals

Piotroski F6/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C1.11bearish
IV76%elevated
Max Pain$640+86.4% vs spot

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHProductAtlas73%
    10-K Item 1: 'Atlas represented 73%, 70% and 66% of our total revenue for the fiscal years ended January 31, 2026, 2025 and 2024, respectively'

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-03-02Item 5.02MEDIUM
    Cedric Pech, President Field Operations, notified MongoDB of intent to resign effective April 15, 2026. Separation agreement entered. No successor named.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker·1 ceiling hit

Momentum below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Macd
0.0
Volume
0.0
Obv
5.1
Rsi
5.5
Ma Position
9.0
Above 200-day MA
GatesMomentum 3.9<4.5A.R:R 0.4 < 1.5@spotExecutive change: officer departure/appointmentInsider activity: OKNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 73d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARRange BoundSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
53 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $292.72Resistance $412.00

Price Targets

$319
$363
A.Upside+5.8%
A.R:R0.4:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! momentum at 3.9 (below the engine's 4.5 threshold)
! asymmetry at 0.4 (below the engine's 1.5 threshold)@spot

Earnings

B
B
B
B
4/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-08-26 (73d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is MDB stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. At $343.28, A.R:R 0.4:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Thin upside margin: 5.9%; Concentration risk — Product: Atlas (73.0%). Chart setup: RSI 53 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Prior stop was $318.80. Score 5.4/10, moderate confidence.

What is the MDB stock price target?

Take-profit target: $363.11 (+5.9% upside). Prior stop was $318.80. Stop-loss: $318.80.

What are the risks of investing in MDB?

Concentration risk — Product: Atlas (73.0%); Thin upside margin: 5.9%; Leverage penalty (D/E 2.0): -1.0.

Is MDB overvalued or undervalued?

MongoDB, Inc. trades at a P/E of N/A (forward 46.7). TrendMatrix value score: 4.9/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about MDB?

45 analysts cover MDB with a consensus score of 4.1/5. Average price target: $395.

What does MongoDB, Inc. do?MongoDB offers a cloud-hosted database-as-a-service platform (Atlas) and enterprise self-managed database (MongoDB...

MongoDB offers a cloud-hosted database-as-a-service platform (Atlas) and enterprise self-managed database (MongoDB Enterprise Advanced) used by developers globally across all major cloud providers. Atlas represented 73% of total revenue in fiscal year ended January 31, 2026; the company reported net losses of $71.2 million in fiscal 2026 and had an accumulated deficit of $1.9 billion.

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