Firefly Aerospace Inc. (FLY) Stock Analysis
Industrials · Aerospace & Defense
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $33.31: Quality below floor (2.4 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.4/10 and A.R:R 2.1:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: High short interest: 12%; Below-average business quality.
Firefly Aerospace is a space and defense company providing orbital launch (Alpha rocket, Eclipse in development), lunar/orbital spacecraft (Blue Ghost lander, Elytra), and national security software (SciTec AI defense) to US government and commercial customers. Alpha has 7... Read more
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $33.31: Quality below floor (2.4 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.4/10 and A.R:R 2.1:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: High short interest: 12%; Below-average business quality. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Score 5.4/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 6/8 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, news events none recent, earnings proximity 51d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum. Suitability: moderate.
Recent developments
updated 2026-06-15Recent Developments — Firefly Aerospace Inc.
Latest news
- NEWS This Roku Analyst Is No Longer Bullish; Here Are Top 2 Downgrades For Monday — benzinga Jun 15, 2026 neutral
- NEWS Rocket Lab, Firefly Upgraded — SpaceX IPO Was Your Chance To Load These Stocks — benzinga Jun 15, 2026 positive
- NEWS This Datadog Analyst Turns Bullish; Here Are Top 4 Upgrades For Monday — benzinga Jun 15, 2026 positive
- NEWS Keybanc Upgrades Firefly Aerospace to Overweight, Announces $50 Price Target — benzinga Jun 15, 2026 positive
- NEWS Stock Market Today: SpaceX Jumps To $175, Rocks Space Rivals — benzinga Jun 12, 2026 neutral
Generated 2026-06-15T18:11:46Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- HIGHCustomertop-5 customers86%10-K Item 1A: 'our top five customers together accounted for over 86% of our revenue and our top five backlog customers accounted for approximately 81% of our backlog as of December 31, 2025'
Material Events(8-K, last 90d)
- 2026-04-21Item 5.02LOWConfirmatory employment letters executed with Jason Kim, Darren Ma, and Ramon Sanchez memorializing base salaries ($500K, $420K, $425K) and bonus targets. All three to commence participation in Executive Severance Plan.SEC filing →
- 2026-03-03Item 5.02LOWCompensation Committee adopted Executive Severance Plan on February 25, 2026, providing standardized severance framework for eligible officers and management employees upon qualifying terminations.SEC filing →
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Rating Breakdown
1 floor-breaker·1 ceiling hit
Unprofitable operations — net margin -193.8%. Quality floor flags this regardless of sector context.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $33.31: Quality below floor (2.4 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.4/10 and A.R:R 2.1:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: High short interest: 12%; Below-average business quality. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Prior stop was $30.46. Score 5.4/10, moderate confidence.
Take-profit target: $41.76 (+31.0% upside). Prior stop was $30.46. Stop-loss: $30.46.
Concentration risk — Customer: top-5 customers (86.0%); Quality below floor (2.4 < 4.0).
Firefly Aerospace Inc. trades at a P/E of N/A (forward -24.5). TrendMatrix value score: 5.4/10. Verdict: Sell.
14 analysts cover FLY with a consensus score of 3.9/5. Average price target: $48.
What does Firefly Aerospace Inc. do?Firefly Aerospace is a space and defense company providing orbital launch (Alpha rocket, Eclipse in development),...
Firefly Aerospace is a space and defense company providing orbital launch (Alpha rocket, Eclipse in development), lunar/orbital spacecraft (Blue Ghost lander, Elytra), and national security software (SciTec AI defense) to US government and commercial customers. Alpha has 7 launches completed and over 30 planned launches under contract as of December 31, 2025.