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FINVFinVolution GroupSell6.1·$5.03+1.62%
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FinVolution Group (FINV) Stock Analysis

SellVALUE-TRAP 2/5Moderate Confidence

Financial Services · Credit Services

Sell if holding. Multiple concerning factors at $5.03: Leverage penalty (D/E 8.3): -1.5; Weak growth.

FinVolution Group, an investment holding company, operates in the online consumer finance industry in the People's Republic of China, Indonesia, Philippines, and internationally. It operates an online consumer finance platform through its ppdai.com and PPDai mobile application;... Read more

$5.03+26.2% A.UpsideScore 6.1/10#10 of 29 Credit Services
QualityF-score6 / 9FCF yield123.63%
IncomeYield6.08%(5y avg 4.19%)Payout23.97%sustainable
Stop $4.68Target $6.35(analyst − 13%)A.R:R 1.9:1
Analyst target$7.29+45.0%7 analysts
$6.35our TP
$5.03price
$7.29mean
$9

Sell if holding. Multiple concerning factors at $5.03: Leverage penalty (D/E 8.3): -1.5; Weak growth. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Score 6.1/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 8/10 gates (positive momentum, favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 67d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on death cross (50MA < 200MA). Suitability: aggressive.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-06-14
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Thu, Aug 20, 202667d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (4/4)
Attractive valuation
Margin of safety: 73%
Risks
Leverage penalty (D/E 8.3): -1.5
Weak growth
Below 200-MA, MA slope -8.9%/30d (confirmed downtrend)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)4.1
P/E (Fwd)3.4
Mkt Cap$1.2B
EV/EBITDA-0.7
Profit Mgn16.6%
ROE13.8%
Rev Growth-7.8%
Beta0.37
Dividend6.08%
Rating analysts13

Quality Signals

Piotroski F6/9

Options Flow

P/C0.33bullish
IV89%elevated
Max Pain$10+98.8% vs spot

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers·1 ceiling hit

Revenue shrinking — -7.8% YoY. Growth thesis broken unless recovery story develops.static

Revenue Growth
0.6
Earnings Growth
6.0
Declining revenue: -8%

Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

52w Position
0.0
Bollinger
4.5
Gap
5.0
Support Resistance
5.5
GatesDeath cross (50MA < 200MA)Momentum 4.7<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)Momentum 4.7>=4.5A.R:R 1.9 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 67d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
63 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $4.35Resistance $5.87

Price Targets

$5
$6
A.Upside+26.2%
A.R:R1.9:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Death cross — 50-day MA below 200-day MA

Earnings

B
B
B
B
4/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-08-20 (67d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is FINV stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Multiple concerning factors at $5.03: Leverage penalty (D/E 8.3): -1.5; Weak growth. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Prior stop was $4.68. Score 6.1/10, moderate confidence.

What is the FINV stock price target?

Take-profit target: $6.35 (+26.2% upside). Prior stop was $4.68. Stop-loss: $4.68.

What are the risks of investing in FINV?

Leverage penalty (D/E 8.3): -1.5; Weak growth; Below 200-MA, MA slope -8.9%/30d (confirmed downtrend).

Is FINV overvalued or undervalued?

FinVolution Group trades at a P/E of 4.1 (forward 3.4). TrendMatrix value score: 9.8/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about FINV?

13 analysts cover FINV with a consensus score of 4.4/5. Average price target: $7.

What does FinVolution Group do?FinVolution Group, an investment holding company, operates in the online consumer finance industry in the People's...

FinVolution Group, an investment holding company, operates in the online consumer finance industry in the People's Republic of China, Indonesia, Philippines, and internationally. It operates an online consumer finance platform through its ppdai.com and PPDai mobile application; AdaKami, an online loan platform; and JuanHand for lending and other personalized financial services. The company was formerly known as PPDAI Group Inc. and changed its name to FinVolution Group in November 2019. FinVolution Group was founded in 2007 and is headquartered in Shanghai, the People's Republic of China.

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