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Xometry, Inc. (XMTR) Stock Analysis

Recovery setup

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5Moderate Confidence

Industrials · Industrial Distribution

Earnings in 5 days (2026-05-07). Expect elevated volatility around the report — consider waiting for post-earnings price action before new entries.

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $51.75: Quality below floor (2.7 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.5/10. Specifically: High short interest: 11%; Below-average business quality.

Xometry operates an AI-native online manufacturing marketplace connecting 81,821 active buyers with 4,996 active suppliers globally, generating $686.6M in 2025 revenue. Revenue is earned through marketplace transaction fees and services including the Thomasnet industrial... Read more

$51.75+4.5% A.UpsideScore 5.5/10#3 of 17 Industrial Distribution
Stop $48.25Target $54.23(analyst − 13%)A.R:R 0.3:1
Analyst target$62.33+20.5%9 analysts
$54.23our TP
$51.75price
$62.33mean
$75

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $51.75: Quality below floor (2.7 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.5/10. Specifically: High short interest: 11%; Below-average business quality. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 70. Score 5.5/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 5/7 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio and earnings proximity 5d<=7d. Suitability: aggressive.

Val6.6Qual2.7Grw9.9Mom5.6Sent6.8Ins3.4Peer3.6Tech2.5Risk4.45.5OVERALL

Thesis

Rewards
No bull case signals
Risks
Concentration risk — Supplier: Amazon Web Services
Quality below floor (2.7 < 4.0)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)—
P/E (Fwd)44.1
Mkt Cap$2.7B
EV/EBITDA-109.2
Profit Mgn-9.0%
ROE-20.8%
Rev Growth29.5%
Beta0.88
DividendNone
Rating analysts16

Quality Signals

Piotroski F6/9

Options Flow

P/C0.58bullish
IV135%elevated

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHSupplierAmazon Web Services
    10-K Item 1A: 'We rely on Amazon Web Services to operate our platform, and any disruption of service from Amazon Web Services...could adversely affect our business'

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-02-24Item 5.02MEDIUM
    CEO Randolph Altschuler to resign effective July 1, 2026; no reason cited. President Sanjeev Singh Sahni appointed as successor CEO effective same date. Altschuler to become Executive Chair.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

3 floor-breakers·1 ceiling hit

Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Support Resistance
0.2
Bollinger
0.6
52w Position
4.0
Gap
5.0

Unprofitable operations — net margin -9.0%. Quality floor flags this regardless of sector context.static

Roe
0.0
Roa
0.0
Operating Margin
0.0
Net Margin
0.0
Fcf Quality
0.0
Gross Margin
3.8
Moat
5.0
Piotroski F
6.7
Current Ratio
9.2
Cash-burning: FCF -2% of revenueNo competitive moatQuality concerns

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Quality Rank
0.0
Value Rank
0.6
Growth Rank
8.8
Industry growth leader
GatesA.R:R 0.3 < 1.5@spotEARNINGS PROXIMITY 5d<=7dMomentum 5.6>=5.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARRecoverySuitability: Aggressive
RSI
70 · Overbought
↑ 20D MA↑ 50D MA↑ 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $39.39Resistance $52.16

Price Targets

$48
$54
A.Upside+4.8%
A.R:R0.3:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Quality below floor (2.7 < 4.0)
! Reward/Risk 0.3:1 at current price — below 1.5:1 minimum
! EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:5d<=7d

Earnings

B
B
B
M
3/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-05-07 (5d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is XMTR stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $51.75: Quality below floor (2.7 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.5/10. Specifically: High short interest: 11%; Below-average business quality. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 70. Prior stop was $48.25. Score 5.5/10, moderate confidence.

What is the XMTR stock price target?

Take-profit target: $54.23 (+4.5% upside). Prior stop was $48.25. Stop-loss: $48.25.

What are the risks of investing in XMTR?

Concentration risk — Supplier: Amazon Web Services; Quality below floor (2.7 < 4.0).

Is XMTR overvalued or undervalued?

Xometry, Inc. trades at a P/E of N/A (forward 44.1). TrendMatrix value score: 6.6/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about XMTR?

16 analysts cover XMTR with a consensus score of 4.0/5. Average price target: $62.

What does Xometry, Inc. do?Xometry operates an AI-native online manufacturing marketplace connecting 81,821 active buyers with 4,996 active...

Xometry operates an AI-native online manufacturing marketplace connecting 81,821 active buyers with 4,996 active suppliers globally, generating $686.6M in 2025 revenue. Revenue is earned through marketplace transaction fees and services including the Thomasnet industrial advertising platform, financial services, and Workcenter manufacturing SaaS.

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