Value
7.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 6.5 |
| P/S | 9.1 |
| EV/EBITDA | 5.6 |
| Fwd P/E | 9.3 |
| PEG | 8.6 |
| Analyst target | 7.5 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 9.7x
- ▸PEG: 0.74
- ▸Attractively valued
EXPE · Why this verdict
Why Expedia Group (EXPE) is rated HOLD
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictHOLD
Overall score6.4/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
6.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 10.0 |
| ROA | 3.9 |
| Gross margin | 10.0 |
| Op margin | 2.8 |
| Net margin | 4.9 |
| Current ratio | 2.9 |
| FCF quality | 10.0 |
| Moat | 7.5 |
| Rule of 40 | 5.5 |
| Piotroski F | 7.8 |
- ▸Excellent ROE: 71%
- ▸Excellent cash conversion: 234% FCF/NI
- ▸Wide economic moat
- ▸Compounder quality: strong returns + growth
Growth
6.2/10data confidence 33%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 6.2 |
Momentum
6.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 3.9 |
| MACD | 10.0 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 5.2 |
| Volume | 2.2 |
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Below 200-MA but MA still rising (+2.2%/30d) — pullback in uptrend, not confirmed weakness
Sentiment
7.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 8.0 |
| Analyst rating | 7.5 |
| Price target | 8.4 |
- ▸LLM news sentiment: +0.60 (n=1)
- ▸Analyst upside: 27%
Insider
5.0/10data confidence 50%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 5.1 |
- ▸Negligible insider selling — $1,304,113 (0.005% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
5.4/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 5.2 |
| quality rank | 6.9 |
| growth rank | 4.7 |
- ▸Superior ROE vs peers
Technical
4.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 4.1 |
| support resistance | 3.4 |
| 52w position | 4.9 |
Risk (lower is worse)
5.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 5.8 |
| days to cover | 6.2 |
| volatility | 3.4 |
| put call | 10.0 |
| implied vol | 4.4 |
| max pain risk | 7.0 |
| beta | 6.0 |
| debt equity | 2.4 |
Catalyst
6.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 10.0 |
| dividend safety | 5.2 |
| news activity | 5.0 |
- ▸Perfect beat streak: 4Q
- ▸Dividend: 78.0%
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position. | News modifier +2 (SELL_IF_HOLDING → HOLD_IF_HOLDING).
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_SELL|L3:NEWS_MOD=+2Passed (7)
- MOMENTUM:6.3>=5.5
- ASYMMETRY:2.0>=1.5
- INSIDER:OK
- NEWS_BOOST:ANALYST:0.60
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:53d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (0)
none
Warning (1)
- 8K_CSUITE_CHANGE:5.02 (officer departure/appointment)
Reward-to-Risk
2.03
Upside
+17.1%
Downside
8.4%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupRECOVERY — Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 61
EdgeNO_EDGE — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityMODERATE — Balanced profile
Investment implication
The F-path SELL output reflects an overall score of 4.9 below the 5.4 soft trigger — multiple weakening dimensions accumulated rather than a single hard-floor breach. The strongest dimension ( Value at 7.9) was not enough to lift the adjusted overall above the threshold. Current asymmetry R:R is 2.03 — supplementary context, not the trigger for this path.
The strongest dimensions are Value at 7.9, Sentiment at 7.9, and Catalyst at 6.7; the weakest are Technical at 4.1, Insider at 5.0, and Peer rank at 5.4. The V9 engine cleared all gates with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 2.03 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.