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CCLCarnival Corporation Ltd.Sell5.8·$29.14+3.63%
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Carnival Corporation Ltd. (CCL) Stock Analysis

Momentum Cont setup · Catalyst-Driven edge

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5Moderate Confidence

Consumer Cyclical · Travel Services

Sell if holding. At $29.14, A.R:R 0.5:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Leverage penalty (D/E 2.0): -1.5; Thin upside margin: 6.8%.

Carnival Corporation & plc operates eight cruise line brands—Carnival Cruise Line, Princess Cruises, AIDA, Costa, Cunard, Holland America Line, P&O Cruises, and Seabourn—with 94 ships and 272,460 passenger berths as of November 30, 2025. The company carried 13.6 million... Read more

$29.14+6.8% A.UpsideScore 5.8/10#6 of 15 Travel Services
QualityF-score7 / 9FCF yield5.38%
IncomeYield1.03%(5y avg 4.21%)Payout6.61%sustainable
Stop $27.14Target $31.17(analyst − 10%)A.R:R 0.5:1
Analyst target$34.63+18.9%24 analysts
$31.17our TP
$29.14price
$34.63mean
$45

Sell if holding. At $29.14, A.R:R 0.5:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Leverage penalty (D/E 2.0): -1.5; Thin upside margin: 6.8%. Chart setup: Trend continuation, RSI 65, MACD bullish. Score 5.8/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 5/9 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, news boost analyst 0.80, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.

10-K grounded · weekly refresh

About Carnival Corporation Ltd.

About Carnival Corporation

Carnival Corporation & plc, the largest global cruise company, operated 94 ships with 272,460 passenger berths as of November 30, 2025, carrying 13.6 million passengers across eight brands during fiscal 2025. The North America Segment—anchored by Carnival Cruise Line (35% of total capacity) and Princess Cruises (20%)—held 64% of the fleet. Caribbean itineraries accounted for 35% of total passenger capacity in 2026, making it the single largest deployment area by a wide margin.

Carnival earns ticket revenue from bookings taken months in advance, actively managed through pricing and capacity yield tools, with pricing varying across contemporary, premium, and luxury tiers. In 2025, onboard and other revenue—spanning casino gaming, beverage sales, shore excursions, specialty restaurants, and retail—generated 34% of cruise revenues. The company also operates Holland America Princess Alaska Tours, generating substantially all its revenue between May and September. Seven newbuilds are contracted for delivery through 2033, with Fincantieri in Italy and Meyer Werft in Germany as shipbuilders. No single travel agency group accounted for 10% or more of revenues in 2025. Royal Caribbean Group, Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings, and MSC Cruises are named competitors; together with Carnival, the four largest cruise companies represented approximately 80% of global cruise industry capacity as of December 31, 2025.

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The most significant structural change of the period was completed on May 7, 2026: Carnival Corporation and Carnival plc unified their dual listed company structure under a single entity, Carnival Corporation Ltd., with Carnival plc becoming a UK subsidiary and the company migrating its domicile from Panama to Bermuda. EU regulations and the IMO Strategy on greenhouse gas emissions may require capital investments in new equipment or technologies, emission allowance purchases, or carbon offset credits — with the 10-K describing the magnitude and timing of those requirements as uncertain given ongoing regulatory evolution.

See also: Consumer Cyclical · Travel Services

From Carnival Corporation's most recent 10-K filing, extracted June 9, 2026.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-06-14
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Tue, Jun 23, 202610d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (4/4)
Attractive valuation
Positive momentum
Risks
Thin upside margin: 6.8%
Leverage penalty (D/E 2.0): -1.5

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)12.9
P/E (Fwd)11.2
Mkt Cap$40.4B
EV/EBITDA9.0
Profit Mgn11.5%
ROE27.9%
Rev Growth6.1%
Beta2.33
Dividend1.03%
Rating analysts30

Quality Signals

Piotroski F7/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C0.48bullish
IV72%elevated

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • MEDIUMGeographicCaribbean35%
    10-K Item 1: 'Caribbean| 35 | %'

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-05-07Item 5.01HIGH
    Carnival Corporation and Carnival plc completed the unification of their dual listed company structure under Carnival Corporation Ltd., with Carnival plc as a UK subsidiary. Carnival Corporation simultaneously migrated its incorporation from Panama to Bermuda, effective May 7, 2026.
    SEC filing →
  • 2026-05-07Item 1.02MEDIUM
    Termination of material definitive agreements governing the dual listed company structure between Carnival Corporation and Carnival plc, effective May 7, 2026 upon completion of the DLC Unification and Redomiciliation to Bermuda.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker

Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Support Resistance
0.0
Bollinger
0.8
Gap
5.0
52w Position
7.3
GatesA.R:R 0.5 < 1.5@spotDeath cross (50MA < 200MA)8K FLAG 5.01,1.02EARNINGS PROXIMITY 10d<=14d (soft)Momentum 7.3>=5.5Insider activity: OKNEWS BOOST ANALYST 0.80SEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARMomentum ContSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
65 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $23.45Resistance $29.20

Price Targets

$27
$31
A.Upside+7.0%
A.R:R0.5:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! asymmetry at 0.5 (below the engine's 1.5 threshold)@spot

Earnings

B
B
B
B
4/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-06-23 (10d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is CCL stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. At $29.14, A.R:R 0.5:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Leverage penalty (D/E 2.0): -1.5; Thin upside margin: 6.8%. Chart setup: Trend continuation, RSI 65, MACD bullish. Prior stop was $27.14. Score 5.8/10, moderate confidence.

What is the CCL stock price target?

Take-profit target: $31.17 (+6.8% upside). Prior stop was $27.14. Stop-loss: $27.14.

What are the risks of investing in CCL?

Thin upside margin: 6.8%; Leverage penalty (D/E 2.0): -1.5.

Is CCL overvalued or undervalued?

Carnival Corporation Ltd. trades at a P/E of 12.9 (forward 11.2). TrendMatrix value score: 7.9/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about CCL?

30 analysts cover CCL with a consensus score of 4.1/5. Average price target: $35.

What does Carnival Corporation Ltd. do?Carnival Corporation & plc operates eight cruise line brands—Carnival Cruise Line, Princess Cruises, AIDA, Costa,...

Carnival Corporation & plc operates eight cruise line brands—Carnival Cruise Line, Princess Cruises, AIDA, Costa, Cunard, Holland America Line, P&O Cruises, and Seabourn—with 94 ships and 272,460 passenger berths as of November 30, 2025. The company carried 13.6 million passengers in 2025 and earned 34% of cruise revenues from onboard sales. In May 2026, it completed unification of its dual-listed structure and redomiciled from Panama to Bermuda.

Related stocks: TCOM (Trip.com Group Limited) · BKNG (Booking Holdings Inc. Common St) · EXPE (Expedia Group, Inc.) · RCL (Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd.) · TNL (Travel Leisure Co.)
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