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FDXFedEx CorporationSell5.3·$338.31+0.09%
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FedEx Corporation (FDX) Stock Analysis

Breakout setup · Catalyst-Driven edge

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5Moderate Confidence

Industrials · Integrated Freight & Logistics

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $338.31: Quality below floor (3.8 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.3/10. Specifically: Below-average business quality.

FedEx provides transportation, e-commerce, and logistics services through two reportable segments: Federal Express (integrated air-ground express to 220+ countries, ~700 aircraft, 175K+ vehicles) and FedEx Freight (LTL). A multi-year DRIVE transformation including Network 2.0 is... Read more

$338.31-0.7% A.UpsideScore 5.3/10#4 of 10 Integrated Freight & Logistics
QualityF-score6 / 9FCF yield1.11%
IncomeYield1.44%(5y avg 1.82%)Payout30.59%sustainable
Stop $318.29Target $335.95(resistance)A.R:R -1.5:1
Analyst target$307.85-9.0%11 analysts
$335.95our TP
$338.31price
$307.85mean
$160
$378

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $338.31: Quality below floor (3.8 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.3/10. Specifically: Below-average business quality. Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 64, MACD bullish. Score 5.3/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 4/7 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: moderate.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-06-13
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Tue, Jun 23, 202611d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
No bull case signals
Risks
Target reached (-20.8% upside)
Quality below floor (3.8 < 4.0)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)18.0
P/E (Fwd)17.9
Mkt Cap$80.6B
EV/EBITDA9.9
Profit Mgn4.9%
ROE15.9%
Rev Growth8.3%
Beta1.30
Dividend1.44%
Rating analysts33

Quality Signals

Piotroski F6/9

Options Flow

P/C0.57bullish
IV128%elevated

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-04-13Item 5.02HIGH
    CFO John W. Dietrich stepping down as EVP and CFO effective June 1, 2026; departing the Company July 31, 2026. No successor named in this filing.
    SEC filing →
  • 2026-03-12Item 5.02LOW
    Board approved amendments to FY25-FY27 and FY26-FY28 long-term incentive plans. Routine compensatory arrangement changes; no officer departure.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker

Quality below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Gross Margin
1.5
Fcf Quality
1.6
Net Margin
2.4
Operating Margin
2.8
Roa
3.4
Moat
4.8
Roe
5.3
Current Ratio
5.4
Piotroski F
6.7
Earnings quality RED FLAG: 20% FCF/NINo competitive moat
GatesA.R:R -1.5=NEGATIVEExecutive change: officer departure/appointmentEARNINGS PROXIMITY 11d<=14d (soft)Momentum 7.0>=5.5Insider activity: OKSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARBreakoutSuitability: Moderate
RSI
64 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $290.79Resistance $342.81

Price Targets

$318
$336
A.Upside-0.7%
A.R:R-1.5:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-20.8% upside)
! Quality below floor (3.8 < 4.0)
! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside

Earnings

B
B
B
B
4/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-06-23 (11d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is FDX stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $338.31: Quality below floor (3.8 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.3/10. Specifically: Below-average business quality. Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 64, MACD bullish. Prior stop was $318.29. Score 5.3/10, moderate confidence.

What is the FDX stock price target?

Take-profit target: $335.95 (-0.7% upside). Prior stop was $318.29. Stop-loss: $318.29.

What are the risks of investing in FDX?

Target reached (-20.8% upside); Quality below floor (3.8 < 4.0).

Is FDX overvalued or undervalued?

FedEx Corporation trades at a P/E of 18.0 (forward 17.9). TrendMatrix value score: 6.1/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about FDX?

33 analysts cover FDX with a consensus score of 3.8/5. Average price target: $308.

What does FedEx Corporation do?FedEx provides transportation, e-commerce, and logistics services through two reportable segments: Federal Express...

FedEx provides transportation, e-commerce, and logistics services through two reportable segments: Federal Express (integrated air-ground express to 220+ countries, ~700 aircraft, 175K+ vehicles) and FedEx Freight (LTL). A multi-year DRIVE transformation including Network 2.0 is underway, and a spin-off of FedEx Freight is expected by June 2026.

Related stocks: ZTO (ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc.) · EXPD (Expeditors International of Was) · CHRW (C.H. Robinson Worldwide, Inc.) · JBHT (J.B. Hunt Transport Services, I) · UPS (United Parcel Service, Inc.)
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