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ETEnergy Transfer LPSell5.7·$18.95+1.01%
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Energy Transfer LP (ET) Stock Analysis

SellModerate Confidence

Energy · Oil & Gas Midstream

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $18.95: Quality below floor (3.5 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.7/10 and A.R:R 2.3:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum.

Energy Transfer LP is a large U.S. midstream MLP operating natural gas pipelines (~32,000 miles), NGL/crude/refined products transportation, and fuel distribution via Sunoco LP across 32 countries. Cash flows derive from distributions from subsidiaries based on fees for... Read more

$18.95+11.3% A.UpsideScore 5.7/10#22 of 42 Oil & Gas Midstream
QualityF-score4 / 9FCF yield2.62%
IncomeYield7.00%(5y avg 7.35%)Payout110.42%at-risk
Stop $18.39Target $21.23(analyst − 10%)A.R:R 2.3:1
Analyst target$23.59+24.5%22 analysts
$21.23our TP
$18.95price
$23.59mean
$27

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $18.95: Quality below floor (3.5 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.7/10 and A.R:R 2.3:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Score 5.7/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 7/8 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 50d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum. Suitability: moderate.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-06-15
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Wed, Aug 5, 202650d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
No bull case signals
Risks
Concentration risk — Customer: Shell
Quality below floor (3.5 < 4.0)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)15.9
P/E (Fwd)12.5
Mkt Cap$65.6B
EV/EBITDA9.9
Profit Mgn4.7%
ROE12.4%
Rev Growth32.1%
Beta0.54
Dividend7.00%
Rating analysts30

Quality Signals

Piotroski F4/9

Options Flow

P/C0.43bullish
IV44%normal

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHCustomerShell
    10-K Item 1: 'Lake Charles LNG derives all of its revenue from a series of long-term contracts with a wholly owned subsidiary of Royal Dutch Shell plc ("Shell").'

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

3 floor-breakers

No near-term catalyst priced in. Thesis progression will come from fundamentals grinding, not event reaction.static

Earnings History
0.0
Surprise Avg
0.0
Dividend Safety
3.5
Erm
5.0
Earnings Timing
5.0
Earnings concerns: 1B/3MYield trap warning: high yield but unsafe

Quality below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Gross Margin
0.0
Net Margin
2.4
Roa
3.0
Fcf Quality
3.2
Roe
4.1
Operating Margin
4.3
Piotroski F
4.4
Current Ratio
4.5
Moat
5.4
Earnings quality RED FLAG: 39% FCF/NINo competitive moat

Momentum below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Obv
1.0
Macd
1.8
Volume
2.5
Ma Position
4.0
Rsi
8.4
Uptrend pullback (RSI 31) - buy opportunityVolume distribution (falling OBV)Above 200-day MA
GatesMomentum 3.5<4.5A.R:R 2.3 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 50d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Moderate
RSI
31 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $18.68Resistance $20.70

Price Targets

$18
$21
A.Upside+12.0%
A.R:R2.3:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Quality below floor (3.5 < 4.0)
! momentum at 3.5 (below the engine's 4.5 threshold)

Earnings

B
M
M
M
1/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-08-05 (50d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is ET stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $18.95: Quality below floor (3.5 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.7/10 and A.R:R 2.3:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Prior stop was $18.39. Score 5.7/10, moderate confidence.

What is the ET stock price target?

Take-profit target: $21.23 (+11.3% upside). Prior stop was $18.39. Stop-loss: $18.39.

What are the risks of investing in ET?

Concentration risk — Customer: Shell; Quality below floor (3.5 < 4.0).

Is ET overvalued or undervalued?

Energy Transfer LP trades at a P/E of 15.9 (forward 12.5). TrendMatrix value score: 8.0/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about ET?

30 analysts cover ET with a consensus score of 4.3/5. Average price target: $24.

What does Energy Transfer LP do?Energy Transfer LP is a large U.S. midstream MLP operating natural gas pipelines (~32,000 miles), NGL/crude/refined...

Energy Transfer LP is a large U.S. midstream MLP operating natural gas pipelines (~32,000 miles), NGL/crude/refined products transportation, and fuel distribution via Sunoco LP across 32 countries. Cash flows derive from distributions from subsidiaries based on fees for transportation, terminalling, storage, and motor fuel distribution.

Related stocks: FRO (Frontline Plc) · VG (Venture Global, Inc.) · AM (Antero Midstream Corporation) · LNG (Cheniere Energy, Inc.) · WES (Western Midstream Partners, LP)
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