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VGVenture Global, Inc.Hold6.1·$12.52-2.49%
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Venture Global, Inc. (VG) Stock Analysis

HoldVALUE-TRAP 3/5Moderate Confidence

Energy · Oil & Gas Midstream

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $12.52, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Geographic: Louisiana LNG projects; Leverage penalty (D/E 3.0): -1.5.

Venture Global produces and exports LNG from Louisiana facilities (Calcasieu operating 11.2 mtpa, Plaquemines 28 mtpa under construction, CP2 29 mtpa in development) using a modular build-many design with 20-year take-or-pay SPAs totaling ~47 mtpa across 24 customers. Revenue... Read more

$12.52+13.2% A.UpsideScore 6.1/10#13 of 42 Oil & Gas Midstream
QualityF-score7 / 9FCF yield-29.09%
IncomeYield0.56%Payout7.15%sustainable
Stop $11.60Target $14.12(analyst − 10%)A.R:R 1.1:1
Analyst target$15.68+25.3%19 analysts
$14.12our TP
$12.52price
$15.68mean
$8
$22

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $12.52, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Geographic: Louisiana LNG projects; Leverage penalty (D/E 3.0): -1.5. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Score 6.1/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 6/8 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news boost analyst 0.50, earnings proximity 63d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: moderate.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-06-09
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Wed, Aug 12, 202663d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Sector modifier (Energy): +1.2
Positive news sentiment (+1.00)
Earnings estimates trending UP
Risks
Concentration risk — Geographic: Louisiana LNG projects
Leverage penalty (D/E 3.0): -1.5
Consecutive earnings misses (2)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)13.4
P/E (Fwd)13.4
Mkt Cap$31.9B
EV/EBITDA11.8
Profit Mgn18.0%
ROE25.5%
Rev Growth58.9%
Beta
Dividend0.56%
Rating analysts26

Quality Signals

Piotroski F7/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C1.35bearish
IV78%elevated

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • MEDIUMCustomertop three customers50%
    10-K Item 1A: 'approximately 50.0% of our revenue for the period from individual external customers was concentrated across three customers'
  • LOWCustomersingle largest customer23%
    10-K Item 1A: 'we had one customer which represented approximately 23% of our revenue for that same period'
  • HIGHGeographicLouisiana LNG projects
    10-K Item 1: 'We are operating, constructing, and developing multiple LNG export projects in Louisiana'

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker·1 ceiling hit

Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static

Obv
1.0
Volume
2.0
Ma Position
3.0
Macd
3.1
Rsi
8.4
Uptrend pullback (RSI 31) - buy opportunityVolume distribution (falling OBV)Above 200-MA but MA slope flat
GatesMomentum 3.5<4.5A.R:R 1.1 < 1.5@spotInsider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS BOOST ANALYST 0.50EARNINGS PROXIMITY 63d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Moderate
RSI
31 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $11.94Resistance $14.95

Price Targets

$12
$14
A.Upside+12.8%
A.R:R1.1:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! momentum at 3.5 (below the engine's 4.5 threshold)
! asymmetry at 1.1 (below the engine's 1.5 threshold)@spot

Earnings

B
B
M
M
2/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-08-12 (63d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is VG stock a buy right now?

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $12.52, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Geographic: Louisiana LNG projects; Leverage penalty (D/E 3.0): -1.5. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Target $14.12 (+12.8%), stop $11.60 (−7.9%), A.R:R 1.1:1. Score 6.1/10, moderate confidence.

What is the VG stock price target?

Take-profit target: $14.12 (+13.2% upside). Target $14.12 (+12.8%), stop $11.60 (−7.9%), A.R:R 1.1:1. Stop-loss: $11.60.

What are the risks of investing in VG?

Concentration risk — Geographic: Louisiana LNG projects; Leverage penalty (D/E 3.0): -1.5; Consecutive earnings misses (2).

Is VG overvalued or undervalued?

Venture Global, Inc. trades at a P/E of 13.4 (forward 13.4). TrendMatrix value score: 7.5/10. Verdict: Hold.

What do analysts say about VG?

26 analysts cover VG with a consensus score of 3.8/5. Average price target: $16.

What does Venture Global, Inc. do?Venture Global produces and exports LNG from Louisiana facilities (Calcasieu operating 11.2 mtpa, Plaquemines 28 mtpa...

Venture Global produces and exports LNG from Louisiana facilities (Calcasieu operating 11.2 mtpa, Plaquemines 28 mtpa under construction, CP2 29 mtpa in development) using a modular build-many design with 20-year take-or-pay SPAs totaling ~47 mtpa across 24 customers. Revenue comes from commissioning cargo sales (spot/forward) and contracted post-COD SPAs with fixed liquefaction fees plus Henry Hub-linked commodity fees.

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