Empire State Realty Trust, Inc. (ESRT) Stock Analysis
Recovery setup
Real Estate · REIT - Diversified
Sell if holding. At $5.57, A.R:R 0.4:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: REIT tenant concentration cliff: 56% of NOI from three properties (≥40% threshold). Single-tenant churn risk dominates spot FFO.; Concentration risk — Geographic: New York City.
Empire State Realty Trust owns and operates a Manhattan-concentrated portfolio of approximately 7.9M sq ft office, 0.8M sq ft retail and 743 multifamily units, all in New York City; flagship Empire State Building includes an Observatory generating ~$128M in 2025 revenue. Revenue... Read more
Sell if holding. At $5.57, A.R:R 0.4:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: REIT tenant concentration cliff: 56% of NOI from three properties (≥40% threshold). Single-tenant churn risk dominates spot FFO.; Concentration risk — Geographic: New York City. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 66. Score 4.7/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 4/8 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, earnings proximity 82d clear, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio and death cross (50MA < 200MA) and reit tenant cliff hard block. Suitability: aggressive.
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- HIGHGeographicNew York City10-K Item 1A: 'Our commercial portfolio is comprised of properties in New York City'
- HIGHTenantthree properties56%10-K Item 1A: 'three of our properties together accounted for approximately 55.6% of our portfolio's rental revenues'
- MEDIUMTenantEmpire State Building32%10-K Item 1A: 'the Empire State Building individually accounting for approximately 32.3%'
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer
Rating Breakdown
3 floor-breakers
Growth below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Momentum below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. At $5.57, A.R:R 0.4:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: REIT tenant concentration cliff: 56% of NOI from three properties (≥40% threshold). Single-tenant churn risk dominates spot FFO.; Concentration risk — Geographic: New York City. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 66. Prior stop was $5.21. Score 4.7/10, moderate confidence.
Take-profit target: $5.75 (+3.5% upside). Prior stop was $5.21. Stop-loss: $5.21.
REIT tenant concentration cliff: 56% of NOI from three properties (≥40% threshold). Single-tenant churn risk dominates spot FFO.; Concentration risk — Geographic: New York City; Concentration risk — Tenant: three properties (55.6%).
Empire State Realty Trust, Inc. trades at a P/E of 26.5 (forward 92.8). TrendMatrix value score: 5.9/10. Verdict: Sell.
12 analysts cover ESRT with a consensus score of 3.8/5. Average price target: $7.
What does Empire State Realty Trust, Inc. do?Empire State Realty Trust owns and operates a Manhattan-concentrated portfolio of approximately 7.9M sq ft office, 0.8M...
Empire State Realty Trust owns and operates a Manhattan-concentrated portfolio of approximately 7.9M sq ft office, 0.8M sq ft retail and 743 multifamily units, all in New York City; flagship Empire State Building includes an Observatory generating ~$128M in 2025 revenue. Revenue comes from commercial and multifamily rents and Observatory admissions.