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BNLBroadstone Net Lease, Inc.Hold6.2·$21.50-2.93%
HoldModerate Confidence
Investment thesis

Broadstone Net Lease carries exceptional cash-conversion and financial-health metrics, and its two most recent earnings prints reflect a recovery from prior stumbles, but the stock is trading within 1.3% of its technical resistance target with a reward-to-risk ratio of 0.34-to-1 — a geometry that favors patience over adding at current levels.

Thesis pillars

  • Industrial Concentration Portfolio RiskStable
  • Elite Cash Conversion QualityStable
  • Earnings Recovery Two Consecutive BeatsImproving
  • +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning

Full reasoning →

Open full analysis

Broadstone Net Lease, Inc. (BNL) Stock Analysis

HoldValueGrowthModerate Confidence

Real Estate · REIT - Diversified

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $21.50, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Property Type: industrial properties (61.9%); Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining.

Broadstone Net Lease is an industrial-focused, diversified net lease REIT with 771 properties across 44 U.S. states and four Canadian provinces, net leased on a long-term basis to 206 tenants across 57 industries. Revenue is derived from triple-net base rents with an ABR of... Read more

$21.50-7.3% A.UpsideScore 6.2/10#2 of 13 REIT - Diversified
QualityF-score8 / 9FCF yield5.43%
IncomeYield5.20%(5y avg 6.13%)Payout178.85%
Stop $20.56Target $22.64(resistance)A.R:R -1.5:1
Analyst target$22.90+6.5%10 analysts
$22.64our TP
$21.50price
$22.90mean
$20
$26

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $21.50, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Property Type: industrial properties (61.9%); Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Score 6.2/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 5/7 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, earnings proximity 90d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.

10-K grounded · weekly refresh

About Broadstone Net Lease, Inc.

About Broadstone Net Lease, Inc.

Broadstone Net Lease's 771-property portfolio generated $428.8 million in annualized base rent at December 31, 2025, with industrial assets representing 61.9% of ABR and retail properties contributing 30.1%, spanning 41.6 million rentable square feet across 44 U.S. states and four Canadian provinces. The portfolio was 99.8% leased with a weighted average remaining lease term of 9.6 years and 97.6% of leases providing contractual rent escalations averaging 2.1% annually.

Broadstone Net Lease earns revenue through triple-net (NNN) leases — tenants are obligated to pay real estate taxes, insurance, maintenance, repairs, and capital costs — with initial lease terms of 10 years or more. Master leases covering 38.6% of overall ABR bind multiple properties under an all-or-none structure, concentrating credit exposure but restricting tenant ability to exit underperforming locations selectively. Industrial assets including distribution and warehouse, manufacturing, food processing, and flex/R&D facilities represent 61.9% of ABR, while retail assets such as general merchandise, quick service restaurants, casual dining, and automotive properties account for 30.1%. Geographic diversification is meaningful — the top five states (Texas 10.2%, Michigan 8.6%, Florida 5.9%, Illinois 5.4%, California 5.3%) collectively represent 35.4% of ABR, with no single state above 10.2%. Only 20.2% of ABR came from investment-grade tenants as of year-end 2025.

Show full overview

Tenant credit quality shapes portfolio risk in a measurable way: only 20.2% of ABR at December 31, 2025 came from tenants with an investment-grade credit rating, with the substantial majority leased to unrated counterparties — a risk the 10-K characterizes as presenting materially higher default exposure than investment-grade-focused peers. The top 10 tenants, led by Roskam Baking Company (3.9% of ABR) and United Natural Foods (3.4%), represented 21.1% of ABR collectively. A default under a master lease — covering 38.6% of overall ABR across 379 properties — could simultaneously reduce rental revenue across multiple assets.

See also: Real Estate · REIT - Diversified

From Broadstone Net Lease, Inc.'s most recent 10-K filing, extracted June 10, 2026.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-07-30
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Wed, Oct 28, 202690d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
High-quality business
Strong growth profile
Positive insider activity
Risks
Concentration risk — Property Type: industrial properties (61.9%)
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)34.6
P/E (Fwd)27.1
Mkt Cap$4.4B
EV/EBITDA17.5
Profit Mgn27.0%
ROE4.2%
Rev Growth11.7%
Beta0.97
Dividend5.20%
Rating analysts14

Quality Signals

Piotroski F8/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C0.31bullish
IV37%normal

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHPropertyindustrial properties62%
    10-K Item 1A: 'approximately 61.9% of our ABR came from industrial properties and 30.1% from retail properties'
  • MEDIUMPropertyretail properties30%
    10-K Item 1A: 'approximately 61.9% of our ABR came from industrial properties and 30.1% from retail properties'
  • MEDIUMGeographictop five states35%
    10-K Item 1A: 'approximately 35.4% of our ABR came from properties in our top five states: Texas (10.2%), Michigan (8.6%), Florida (5.9%), Illinois (5.4%), and California (5.3%)'
  • LOWTenanttop 10 tenants21%
    10-K Item 1A: 'our top 10 tenants together represented 21.1% of our ABR'

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.

Not investment advice. TrendMatrix is not a registered investment adviser. Our content is for informational and educational purposes only. Consult your own licensed investment adviser, broker, or tax professional before making any investment decision.

Conflicts and positions. The TrendMatrix editorial team frequently holds personal long-term positions in securities discussed. We disclose positions held at the time of publication on each piece. We maintain a trading-window policy: we do not initiate or close positions in the same direction as a TrendMatrix publication within 24 hours before or 72 hours after publication.

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No fiduciary duty. No fiduciary, advisory, or agency relationship is created between you and TrendMatrix by reading our content or subscribing to our service.

Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

10 dimensions · all in-band

GatesMomentum 4.4<4.5A.R:R -1.5=NEGATIVEInsider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsEARNINGS PROXIMITY 90d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
44 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $20.90Resistance $23.10

Price Targets

$21
$23
A.Upside-7.3%
A.R:R-1.5:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-7.3% upside)
! momentum at 4.4 (below the engine's 4.5 threshold)
! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside

Earnings

B
B
M
M
2/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-10-28 (90d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is BNL stock a buy right now?

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $21.50, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Property Type: industrial properties (61.9%); Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Target $22.64 (+5.3%), stop $20.56 (−4.6%), A.R:R -1.5:1. Score 6.2/10, moderate confidence.

What is the BNL stock price target?

Take-profit target: $22.64 (-7.3% upside). Target $22.64 (+5.3%), stop $20.56 (−4.6%), A.R:R -1.5:1. Stop-loss: $20.56.

What are the risks of investing in BNL?

Concentration risk — Property Type: industrial properties (61.9%); Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining.

Is BNL overvalued or undervalued?

Broadstone Net Lease, Inc. trades at a P/E of 34.6 (forward 27.1). TrendMatrix value score: 4.1/10. Verdict: Hold.

What do analysts say about BNL?

14 analysts cover BNL with a consensus score of 3.9/5. Average price target: $23.

What does Broadstone Net Lease, Inc. do?Broadstone Net Lease is an industrial-focused, diversified net lease REIT with 771 properties across 44 U.S. states and...

Broadstone Net Lease is an industrial-focused, diversified net lease REIT with 771 properties across 44 U.S. states and four Canadian provinces, net leased on a long-term basis to 206 tenants across 57 industries. Revenue is derived from triple-net base rents with an ABR of $428.8 million at December 31, 2025, 99.8% occupancy, and a 9.6-year weighted average remaining lease term.

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