CTO Realty Growth has beaten earnings every quarter this year and carries a strong Piotroski quality score, but trading near its 52-week high with its analyst target already reached, elevated leverage, and a flagged dividend yield trap keep the engine cautious on adding to the position.
Thesis pillars
- Earnings Beat Streak Catalyst→Stable
- Piotroski Quality Signal→Stable
- Near 52 Week High Asymmetry↓Deteriorating
- +2 more pillars — see the Why tab for full reasoning
Pillars as of Jul 5, 2026, based on the 10-K filed Feb 19, 2026
CTO Realty Growth, Inc. (CTO) Stock Analysis
Real Estate · REIT - Diversified
Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $19.03, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Property Type: shopping centers; Sector modifier (Real Estate): -1.2.
CTO Realty Growth is a self-managed equity REIT that owns and repositions shopping centers and mixed-use retail properties, holding 21 properties across seven states totaling 5.5 million square feet as of December 31, 2025. The company generated $149.5 million in total 2025... Read more
Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $19.03, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Property Type: shopping centers; Sector modifier (Real Estate): -1.2. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position. | News modifier +2 (SELL_IF_HOLDING → HOLD_IF_HOLDING) Score 6.4/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 7/8 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news boost earnings 0.60, earnings proximity 112d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum. Suitability: aggressive.
About CTO Realty Growth, Inc.
About CTO Realty Growth, Inc.
CTO Realty Growth owned 21 commercial real estate properties spanning 5.5 million square feet of gross leasable space across seven states as of December 31, 2025, generating $149.5 million in total revenue for the year, up from $124.5 million in 2024. Income Properties supplied $132.2 million of that revenue, with the remainder split between $12.5 million of interest income from commercial loans and investments and $4.8 million of management fees, including from managing affiliate Alpine Income Property Trust (PINE), in which CTO holds a $41.3 million stake equal to 15.4% of PINE's outstanding common equity.
CTO's core strategy is investing in shopping centers in faster-growing, business-friendly markets, and its 17 shopping centers generate $102.4 million of annualized base rent against a 5.0-year weighted average remaining lease term, while four other income properties add $3.8 million against a 3.9-year term. The company also earns interest income from a $104.8 million portfolio of four commercial loan investments and two preferred-equity investments secured by real estate, and collects a base management fee equal to 1.5% of PINE's total equity (reduced to 0.75% on equity tied to PINE's Series A Preferred Stock issuance) plus incentive fees for managing PINE and third-party portfolios under separate agreements. In 2025 CTO acquired two shopping centers for $144.9 million and sold four income properties, including a $78.0 million shopping center in Plano, Texas, for combined proceeds of $85.1 million and $21.0 million of gains.
Show full overview
CTO's business plan is primarily focused on investing in shopping centers, and an Exclusivity and Right of First Offer Agreement with PINE bars CTO from investing in single-tenant net-lease properties at all, structurally tying future acquisitions to the multi-tenant retail format even as shopping-center occupancy (92% economic, 96% leased in 2025) outperforms the company's four other income properties, which ran at just 61% economic occupancy despite being 100% leased. Roughly 30% of gross annual rent is scheduled to expire in 2027 and 2028 combined, concentrating lease-renewal risk in a two-year window even as the shopping-center portfolio's overall occupancy trend has been improving since 2023.
See also: Real Estate · REIT - Diversified
From CTO Realty Growth, Inc.'s most recent 10-K filing, extracted July 6, 2026.
Recent developments
updated 2026-10-29Recent Developments — CTO Realty Growth, Inc.
Latest news
- NEWS CTO Realty Growth (CTO) Stock Rises As FFO Strength Sharpens Dividend Debate - simplywall.st — simplywall.st positive
- NEWS CTO Realty Growth, Inc. Stock 12‑Month Price Target Raised to $24, Implies 10% Upside - TradingView — TradingView positive
- NEWS CTO Realty Growth, Inc. Stock 12‑Month Price Target Raised to $24, Implies 10% Upside - tradingview.com — tradingview.com positive
- NEWS CTO Realty Growth Inc (CTO) Q2 2026 Earnings Call Highlights: St - GuruFocus — GuruFocus neutral
- NEWS CTO Realty Growth Q2 Earnings Call Highlights - MarketBeat — MarketBeat positive
Generated 2026-10-29T11:53:50Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- HIGHPropertyshopping centers10-K Item 1: 'Our business plan is primarily focused on investing in shopping centers.'
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
Show full disclosure ▾Hide full disclosure ▴
About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.
Not investment advice. TrendMatrix is not a registered investment adviser. Our content is for informational and educational purposes only. Consult your own licensed investment adviser, broker, or tax professional before making any investment decision.
Conflicts and positions. People who build TrendMatrix, or entities they control, may hold positions, long or short, in securities it covers, and may trade them at any time. Positions are not disclosed individually. Verdicts are generated by an automated model applied by the same rules to every covered stock, and are not adjusted for any position held by the people who build TrendMatrix. We do not accept payment from issuers for coverage.
No paid promotion. TrendMatrix does not accept payment from any issuer, broker, or third party in exchange for coverage of any security.
No fiduciary duty. No fiduciary, advisory, or agency relationship is created between you and TrendMatrix by reading our content or subscribing to our service.
Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.
Rating Breakdown
1 floor-breaker
Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $19.03, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Property Type: shopping centers; Sector modifier (Real Estate): -1.2. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position. | News modifier +2 (SELL_IF_HOLDING → HOLD_IF_HOLDING) Analyst target $21.40 (+12.5%), stop $18.01 (−5.7%), A.R:R 2.3:1. Score 6.4/10, moderate confidence.
Analyst target: $21.40 (+12.5% upside). Analyst target $21.40 (+12.5%), stop $18.01 (−5.7%), A.R:R 2.3:1. Stop-loss: $18.01.
Concentration risk — Property Type: shopping centers; Sector modifier (Real Estate): -1.2; Negative momentum.
CTO Realty Growth, Inc. trades at a P/E of 17.0 (forward 30.7). TrendMatrix value score: 6.2/10. Verdict: Hold.
10 analysts cover CTO with a consensus score of 4.1/5. Average price target: $25.
What does CTO Realty Growth, Inc. do?CTO Realty Growth is a self-managed equity REIT that owns and repositions shopping centers and mixed-use retail...
CTO Realty Growth is a self-managed equity REIT that owns and repositions shopping centers and mixed-use retail properties, holding 21 properties across seven states totaling 5.5 million square feet as of December 31, 2025. The company generated $149.5 million in total 2025 revenue — primarily from Income Properties — and also earns fee income managing affiliate Alpine Income Property Trust and interest income from a $104.8 million commercial loan and preferred-equity portfolio.