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EMAEmera IncorporatedSell4.4·$49.19-0.59%
SellHigh Confidence
Investment thesis

Emera has built strong price momentum — a golden cross with rising volume accumulation — and has beaten consensus earnings estimates in three of the four most recent quarters, but the stock has already moved above the price target with negative remaining headroom, free cash flow is deeply negative relative to net income, and the dividend carries an unsafe yield warning, making the current setup one that favors patience rather than fresh capital.

Thesis pillars

  • Strong Price Momentum BreakoutDeteriorating
  • Free Cash Flow Deeply NegativeStable
  • Price Above Target No UpsideDeteriorating
  • +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning

Full reasoning →

Open full analysis

Emera Incorporated (EMA) Stock Analysis

SellVALUE-TRAP 2/5High Confidence

Utilities · Utilities - Regulated Electric

Sell if holding. Momentum 2.6/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $49.19 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Thin upside margin: 8.0%; V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.0).

Emera Incorporated, an energy and services company, invests in generation, transmission, and distribution of electricity in the United States, Canada, Barbados, and the Bahamas. The company operates through Florida Electric Utility, Canadian Electric Utilities, Gas Utilities and... Read more

$49.19+8.0% A.UpsideScore 4.4/10#41 of 41 Utilities - Regulated Electric
QualityF-score6 / 9FCF yield-9.49%
IncomeYield4.27%(5y avg 4.92%)Payout92.78%at-risk
Stop $47.83Target $53.12(analyst − 15%)A.R:R 1.6:1
Analyst target$62.50+27.1%2 analysts
$53.12our TP
$49.19price
$62.50mean
$72

Sell if holding. Momentum 2.6/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $49.19 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Thin upside margin: 8.0%; V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.0). Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Score 4.4/10, high confidence.

Passes 7/8 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 54d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum. Suitability: moderate.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-09-13
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Fri, Nov 6, 202654d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Sector modifier (Utilities): +1.0
Risks
Thin upside margin: 8.0%
V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.0)
Leverage penalty (D/E 1.5): -1.0

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)21.7
P/E (Fwd)18.8
Mkt Cap$15.1B
EV/EBITDA11.2
Profit Mgn11.6%
ROE7.6%
Rev Growth1.2%
Beta0.43
Dividend4.27%
Rating analysts19

Quality Signals

Piotroski F6/9

Options Flow

P/C8.23bearish
IV57%elevated

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers·1 ceiling hit

Growth below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Earnings Growth
0.0
Revenue Growth
2.8

Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static

Obv
1.0
Ma Position
2.2
Volume
2.6
Rsi
3.5
Macd
3.7
Volume distribution (falling OBV)Below 200-MA but MA still rising (+1.2%/30d) — pullback in uptrend, not confirmed weakness
GatesMomentum 2.6<4.5A.R:R 1.6 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 54d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Moderate
RSI
39 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $49.03Resistance $52.27

Price Targets

$48
$53
A.Upside+8.0%
A.R:R1.6:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! momentum at 2.6 (below the engine's 4.5 threshold)

Earnings

B
B
M
M
2/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-11-06 (54d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is EMA stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Momentum 2.6/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $49.19 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Thin upside margin: 8.0%; V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.0). Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Prior stop was $47.83. Score 4.4/10, high confidence.

What is the EMA stock price target?

Take-profit target: $53.12 (+8.0% upside). Prior stop was $47.83. Stop-loss: $47.83.

What are the risks of investing in EMA?

Thin upside margin: 8.0%; V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.0); Leverage penalty (D/E 1.5): -1.0.

Is EMA overvalued or undervalued?

Emera Incorporated trades at a P/E of 21.7 (forward 18.8). TrendMatrix value score: 5.9/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about EMA?

19 analysts cover EMA with a consensus score of 3.4/5. Average price target: $63.

What does Emera Incorporated do?Emera Incorporated, an energy and services company, invests in generation, transmission, and distribution of...

Emera Incorporated, an energy and services company, invests in generation, transmission, and distribution of electricity in the United States, Canada, Barbados, and the Bahamas. The company operates through Florida Electric Utility, Canadian Electric Utilities, Gas Utilities and Infrastructure, Other Electric Utilities, and Other segments. It is involved in the purchase, transmission, distribution, and sale of natural gas; and physical energy marketing, trading, and other energy asset management activities. The company was incorporated in 1998 and is headquartered in Halifax, Canada.

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