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DEODiageo plcSell5.2·$81.79+0.83%
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Diageo plc (DEO) Stock Analysis

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5Moderate Confidence

Consumer Defensive · Beverages - Wineries & Distilleries

Sell if holding. At $81.79, A.R:R 1.4:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Leverage penalty (D/E 1.8): -1.0; Thin upside margin: 6.8%.

Diageo plc, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the production, marketing, and distribution of alcoholic beverages in North America, Europe, the Asia Pacific, Latin America and Caribbean, and Africa. It offers beer, scotch, gin, vodka, rum, liqueur, raki, wine, Irish and... Read more

$81.79+6.8% A.UpsideScore 5.2/10#1 of 3 Beverages - Wineries & Distilleries
QualityF-score7 / 9FCF yield2.11%
IncomeYield4.06%(5y avg 2.90%)Payout95.64%at-risk
Stop $78.37Target $87.37(analyst − 13%)A.R:R 1.4:1
Analyst target$100.43+22.8%7 analysts
$87.37our TP
$81.79price
$100.43mean
$76
$130

Sell if holding. At $81.79, A.R:R 1.4:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Leverage penalty (D/E 1.8): -1.0; Thin upside margin: 6.8%. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Score 5.2/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 6/9 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 53d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio and death cross (50MA < 200MA). Suitability: moderate.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-06-14
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Thu, Aug 6, 202653d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Earnings estimates trending UP
Attractive valuation
Risks
Thin upside margin: 6.8%
Leverage penalty (D/E 1.8): -1.0
Consecutive earnings misses (2)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)18.9
P/E (Fwd)12.8
Mkt Cap$45.5B
EV/EBITDA136.3
Profit Mgn12.2%
ROE19.7%
Rev Growth-4.0%
Beta0.30
Dividend4.06%
Rating analysts31

Quality Signals

Piotroski F7/9

Options Flow

P/C0.96neutral
IV53%elevated
Max Pain$165+101.7% vs spot

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers

Revenue shrinking — -4.0% YoY. Growth thesis broken unless recovery story develops.static

Revenue Growth
1.5
Earnings Growth
2.6
Declining revenue: -4%

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Growth Rank
0.0
Value Rank
3.3
Quality Rank
3.3
GatesMomentum 4.3<4.5A.R:R 1.4 < 1.5@spotDeath cross (50MA < 200MA)Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 53d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Moderate
RSI
36 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $78.59Resistance $87.48

Price Targets

$78
$87
A.Upside+6.8%
A.R:R1.4:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! momentum at 4.3 (below the engine's 4.5 threshold)
! asymmetry at 1.4 (below the engine's 1.5 threshold)@spot
! Death cross — 50-day MA below 200-day MA

Earnings

B
B
M
M
2/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-08-06 (53d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is DEO stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. At $81.79, A.R:R 1.4:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Leverage penalty (D/E 1.8): -1.0; Thin upside margin: 6.8%. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Prior stop was $78.37. Score 5.2/10, moderate confidence.

What is the DEO stock price target?

Take-profit target: $87.37 (+6.8% upside). Prior stop was $78.37. Stop-loss: $78.37.

What are the risks of investing in DEO?

Thin upside margin: 6.8%; Leverage penalty (D/E 1.8): -1.0; Consecutive earnings misses (2).

Is DEO overvalued or undervalued?

Diageo plc trades at a P/E of 18.9 (forward 12.8). TrendMatrix value score: 7.7/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about DEO?

31 analysts cover DEO with a consensus score of 4.0/5. Average price target: $100.

What does Diageo plc do?Diageo plc, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the production, marketing, and distribution of alcoholic...

Diageo plc, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the production, marketing, and distribution of alcoholic beverages in North America, Europe, the Asia Pacific, Latin America and Caribbean, and Africa. It offers beer, scotch, gin, vodka, rum, liqueur, raki, wine, Irish and Canadian whisky, US and Indian whisky, Chinese whisky, cachaça, tequila, brandy, and Chinese white spirit beverages. The company also provides ready-to-drink and non-alcoholic beverages. Its principal brands include Johnnie Walker, Don Julio, Guinness, Crown Royal, Smirnoff, Baileys, Captain Morgan, Casamigos, Shui Jing Fang, and McDowell's. The company was formerly known as Guinness plc and changed its name to Diageo plc in February 1998. The company was incorporated in 1886 and is headquartered in London, the United Kingdom.

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