Brown Forman Inc (BF-A) Stock Analysis
Breakout setup
Consumer Defensive · Beverages - Wineries & Distilleries
Sell if holding. Multiple concerning factors at $27.40: Concentration risk — Supplier: single glass producer; Weak overall score: 4.8/10.
Brown-Forman manufactures and markets beverage alcohol across 170+ countries, led by the Jack Daniel's family of brands—the #1 selling American whiskey globally—along with Woodford Reserve, Herradura tequilas, Old Forester, and roughly 40 other spirit and RTD brands. The United... Read more
Sell if holding. Multiple concerning factors at $27.40: Concentration risk — Supplier: single glass producer; Weak overall score: 4.8/10. Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 57, MACD bullish. Score 4.8/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 6/8 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, news events none recent, earnings proximity no date, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Suitability: moderate.
About Brown Forman Inc
About Brown Forman Inc
Brown-Forman's portfolio of more than 40 spirit, RTD, and wine brands sold in 170+ countries generated net sales with the United States at 44%, Mexico at 7%, Germany at 6%, Australia at 5%, and the United Kingdom at 4% of reported net sales in fiscal 2025. Jack Daniel's Tennessee Whiskey ranks as the #1 selling American whiskey globally per IWSR 2024 data; Woodford Reserve sold over 1.8 million nine-liter cases in fiscal 2025. Brown-Forman employed approximately 5,000 people on six continents.
Brown-Forman distributes through three route-to-consumer models: owned distribution companies now operating in 17 countries (Italy added May 2025), third-party distributor contracts, and state-government channels in the U.S. and Canada. The Jack Daniel's franchise drives the majority of overall financial performance, supplemented by Woodford Reserve, Old Forester, Herradura and el Jimador tequilas, and acquisitions including Gin Mare (2022), Diplomático rums (2023), and Scotch whiskies The Glendronach, Benriach, and Glenglassaugh. The company's two largest customers accounted for approximately 13% and 11% of fiscal 2025 consolidated net sales, with no other customer at 10% or above. Input costs include agave (subject to a 6-7 year growth cycle), grain commodities, glass bottles sourced primarily from a single producer, and oak barrels now fully externally sourced after the company closed its last cooperage. Competitors include Diageo, Pernod Ricard, Bacardi, Rémy Cointreau, and Suntory Global Spirits.
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Brown-Forman's supply chain carries two concentrated single-source dependencies flagged in the 10-K: a single glass producer supplies most of the company's glass requirements, and oak barrels for all North American whiskey aging now come from a single external supplier following closure of the company's final barrel-making facility. The 10-K states that inability of the primary glass provider to meet requirements would increase cost to produce and constrain supply. On the trade side, Canada removed American beverage alcohol—including Jack Daniel's—from provincial store shelves in March 2025 in response to a 25% U.S. tariff on Canadian imports, illustrating how tariff escalation in export markets may weigh on near-term volumes in those geographies.
See also: Consumer Defensive · Beverages - Wineries & Distilleries
From Brown Forman Inc's most recent 10-K filing, extracted June 9, 2026.
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- MEDIUMProductJack Daniel's family of brands10-K Item 1A: 'The Jack Daniel's family of brands is the primary driver of our revenue'
- MEDIUMGeographicUnited States44%10-K Item 1: 'The United States, our most important market, accounted for 44% of our net sales in fiscal 2025'
- LOWCustomertwo largest customers13%10-K Item 1: 'our two largest customers accounted for approximately 13% and 11% of consolidated net sales, respectively'
- HIGHSuppliersingle glass producer10-K Item 1A: 'a single producer supplies most of our glass requirements'
- MEDIUMSupplierexternal oak barrel supplier10-K Item 1A: 'we now source our oak barrels in which we age our North American whiskeys from an external supplier'
Material Events(8-K, last 90d)
- 2026-03-16Item 5.02MEDIUMJames W. Peters elected EVP and CFO effective March 31, 2026, succeeding Leanne D. Cunningham who retires effective May 1, 2026. Peters previously served as EVP, Enterprise Transformation of Whirlpool Corporation since January 2026.SEC filing →
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Rating Breakdown
3 floor-breakers
Growth below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Analyst Consensus
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. Multiple concerning factors at $27.40: Concentration risk — Supplier: single glass producer; Weak overall score: 4.8/10. Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 57, MACD bullish. Prior stop was $25.88. Score 4.8/10, moderate confidence.
Take-profit target: $27.01 (-1.4% upside). Prior stop was $25.88. Stop-loss: $25.88.
Concentration risk — Supplier: single glass producer; Weak overall score: 4.8/10; Weak growth.
Brown Forman Inc trades at a P/E of 17.8 (forward N/A). TrendMatrix value score: 4.4/10. Verdict: Sell.
21 analysts cover BF-A with a consensus score of 2.7/5.
What does Brown Forman Inc do?Brown-Forman manufactures and markets beverage alcohol across 170+ countries, led by the Jack Daniel's family of...
Brown-Forman manufactures and markets beverage alcohol across 170+ countries, led by the Jack Daniel's family of brands—the #1 selling American whiskey globally—along with Woodford Reserve, Herradura tequilas, Old Forester, and roughly 40 other spirit and RTD brands. The United States accounted for 44% of net sales in fiscal 2025; revenue is distributed through owned distribution companies in 17 countries, third-party partners, and state-government channels.