Brown Forman Inc (BF-B) Stock Analysis
Momentum Cont setup
Consumer Defensive · Beverages - Wineries & Distilleries
Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $26.91 — A.R:R is negative (-0.8) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Consecutive earnings misses (3).
Brown-Forman manufactures, distills, and markets over 40 spirit and RTD brands including Jack Daniel's Tennessee Whiskey, Woodford Reserve, and Herradura tequila across more than 170 countries. The company sells through distributors or state governments in the U.S. and via owned... Read more
Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $26.91 — A.R:R is negative (-0.8) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Consecutive earnings misses (3). Chart setup: Trend continuation, RSI 60, MACD bullish. Score 4.9/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 7/10 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, positive momentum, news events none recent, earnings proximity 75d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: moderate.
About Brown Forman Inc
About Brown Forman Inc
Brown-Forman's brand portfolio spans more than 40 spirit, RTD, and wine labels — led by Jack Daniel's Tennessee Whiskey and Woodford Reserve — sold in over 170 countries. In fiscal 2025, the United States accounted for 44% of net sales, followed by Mexico (7%), Germany (6%), and Australia (5%). The two largest customers represented approximately 13% and 11% of consolidated net sales, respectively, with no single other customer exceeding 10%. The company employs approximately 5,000 people on six continents.
Brown-Forman distributes through distributors or state governments in the U.S. and through owned distribution companies in 17 markets across 18 countries — with Italy added effective May 2025 — plus third-party distributors elsewhere. Pricing targets premium-and-above consumer segments, competing against Diageo PLC, Pernod Ricard SA, Bacardi Limited, and Davide Campari-Milano. Key inputs include agave, corn, barley, rye, molasses, glass, and wood; the company sources most of its glass from a single producer and, after closing its last barrel-making facility, now procures all oak barrels from an external supplier. Whiskeys require multi-year aging in new charred oak barrels per U.S. regulation, and tequila supply depends on agave plants requiring six to seven years to reach maturity, exposing the company to long-horizon demand-forecast errors.
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Brown-Forman's packaging supply carries notable single-source dependencies: a single glass producer supplies most of the company's bottle requirements, and the company sources all oak barrels from an external supplier after exiting its last owned barrel-making facility. The 10-K notes that if the primary glass provider cannot produce sufficient quantities, costs would increase and supply of affected products would be constrained. Tariff risk compounds this: in March 2025, several Canadian provinces removed all American beverage alcohol from shelves, including Jack Daniel's, in response to U.S. tariffs — illustrating how retaliatory trade policy could weigh on key markets.
See also: Consumer Defensive · Beverages - Wineries & Distilleries
From Brown Forman Inc's most recent 10-K filing, extracted June 9, 2026.
Recent developments
updated 2026-06-13Recent Developments — Brown Forman Inc
Latest news
- NEWS Brown-Forman Corp. stock (US1170431092): Guidance Cut and Market Reaction After Q4 Results - AD HOC NEWS — AD HOC NEWS negative
- NEWS Brown-Forman Corp (BF.B) Stock Down 3.1% -- Now Undervalued? GF Score: 63/100 - GuruFocus — GuruFocus negative
- NEWS Analysts Offer Insights on Consumer Goods Companies: Coca-Cola (KO), Brown-Forman B (BF.B) and BBB Foods, Inc. Class A ( — The Globe and Mail neutral
- NEWS Brown-Forman Corp. Cl B stock underperforms Tuesday when compared to competitors - MarketWatch — MarketWatch negative
- NEWS Analyst Lowers Brown‑Forman (BF-B) Price Target Ahead of Q4 Report - Insider Monkey — Insider Monkey negative
Generated 2026-06-15T18:11:46Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- MEDIUMGeographicUnited States44%10-K Item 1: 'The United States, our most important market, accounted for 44% of our net sales in fiscal 2025'
- LOWCustomertwo largest customers10-K Item 1: 'our two largest customers accounted for approximately 13% and 11% of consolidated net sales, respectively'
- MEDIUMProductJack Daniel's family of brands10-K Item 1A: 'The Jack Daniel's family of brands is the primary driver of our revenue'
- MEDIUMSuppliersingle glass producer10-K Item 1A: 'only a few glass producers make bottles on a scale sufficient for our requirements, and a single producer supplies most of our glass requirements'
Material Events(8-K, last 90d)
- 2026-03-16Item 5.02MEDIUMJames W. Peters elected EVP and CFO effective March 31, 2026, succeeding Leanne D. Cunningham who retires May 1, 2026. Peters joins from Whirlpool Corporation (EVP, Enterprise Transformation since January 2026). No reason cited beyond planned retirement.SEC filing →
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Rating Breakdown
4 floor-breakers
Growth below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
No near-term catalyst priced in. Thesis progression will come from fundamentals grinding, not event reaction.static
Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $26.91 — A.R:R is negative (-0.8) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Consecutive earnings misses (3). Chart setup: Trend continuation, RSI 60, MACD bullish. Prior stop was $25.45. Score 4.9/10, moderate confidence.
Take-profit target: $26.54 (-1.7% upside). Prior stop was $25.45. Stop-loss: $25.45.
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Consecutive earnings misses (3); Weak overall score: 4.9/10.
Brown Forman Inc trades at a P/E of 17.7 (forward 15.8). TrendMatrix value score: 5.6/10. Verdict: Sell.
21 analysts cover BF-B with a consensus score of 2.7/5. Average price target: $28.
What does Brown Forman Inc do?Brown-Forman manufactures, distills, and markets over 40 spirit and RTD brands including Jack Daniel's Tennessee...
Brown-Forman manufactures, distills, and markets over 40 spirit and RTD brands including Jack Daniel's Tennessee Whiskey, Woodford Reserve, and Herradura tequila across more than 170 countries. The company sells through distributors or state governments in the U.S. and via owned distribution companies in 17 markets internationally, employing approximately 5,000 people.