The stock screens exceptionally cheap at a forward multiple of 8.7 times with 21% upside to analyst consensus, but three consecutive earnings misses before a single recent beat, no competitive moat, severe customer concentration, and deteriorating price momentum make this a value trap until the fundamental recovery is confirmed by at least two successive positive earnings surprises.
Thesis pillars
- Deep Value Analyst Upside↑Improving
- Severe Customer Supplier Concentration↓Deteriorating
- No Competitive Moat Below Floor Quality→Stable
- +2 more pillars — see the Why tab for full reasoning
Pillars as of Jul 3, 2026, based on the 10-K filed Feb 27, 2026
Dana Incorporated (DAN) Stock Analysis
Oversold Bounce setup
Consumer Cyclical · Auto Parts
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $25.48: a dimension score below its floor triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.3/10 and A.R:R 3.4:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum; Below long-term trend.
Dana Incorporated supplies power-conveyance and energy-management solutions to light and commercial vehicle OEMs worldwide, with $7.5 billion in 2025 sales split 70%/30% between its two segments across 24 countries. Ford Motor Company represented approximately 32% of 2025 sales,... Read more
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $25.48: a dimension score below its floor triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.3/10 and A.R:R 3.4:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum; Below long-term trend. Chart setup: Oversold RSI 30, near Bollinger lower, volume surge. Score 5.3/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 6/7 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, earnings proximity no date, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum. Suitability: aggressive.
Recent developments
updated 2026-10-29Recent Developments — Dana Incorporated
Latest news
- NEWS Dana Q3 2026 Earnings Call Transcript — benzinga Oct 28, 2026 neutral
- NEWS UPDATE: Dana Q3 Adj. EPS $0.41 Misses $0.72 Estimate — benzinga Oct 28, 2026 negative
- NEWS Dana Incorporated Reports Third-Quarter 2026 Financial Results — fiscal.ai Oct 28, 2026
- NEWS Dana Affirms FY2026 Adj EPS Guidance of $1.75-$2.25 vs $1.85 Est; Raises FY2026 Sales Guidance from $7.650B-$7.850B to $ — benzinga Oct 28, 2026 neutral
- NEWS Dana Q3 EPS $(0.13) Misses $0.80 Estimate, Sales $2.038B Beat $1.966B Estimate — benzinga Oct 28, 2026 negative
Generated 2026-10-29T11:08:51Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- MEDIUMCustomerFord Motor Company32%10-K Item 1: 'Ford Motor Company ... our sales to Ford were approximately 32% in 2025'
- LOWCustomerStellantis N.V.13%10-K Item 1: 'Stellantis N.V. ... Our sales to Stellantis (via a directed supply relationship) were approximately 13% in 2025'
- HIGHCustomertop 10 customers76%10-K Item 1: 'Our 10 largest customers collectively accounted for approximately 76% of our sales in 2025'
- HIGHSuppliersingle sources of supply10-K Item 1A: 'we are dependent on single sources of supply for some components of our products'
- MEDIUMGeographicnon-U.S. operations43%10-K Item 1A: 'Approximately 43% of our sales in 2025 were from operations located in countries other than the U.S.'
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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Rating Breakdown
3 floor-breakers·1 ceiling hit
Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static
Quality below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Growth below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $25.48: a dimension score below its floor triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.3/10 and A.R:R 3.4:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum; Below long-term trend. Chart setup: Oversold RSI 30, near Bollinger lower, volume surge. Prior stop was $23.70. Score 5.3/10, moderate confidence.
Analyst target: $32.91 (+29.2% upside). Prior stop was $23.70. Stop-loss: $23.70.
Concentration risk — Customer: top 10 customers (76.0%); Concentration risk — Supplier: single sources of supply; Quality below floor (3.5 < 4.0).
Dana Incorporated trades at a P/E of N/A (forward 5.8). TrendMatrix value score: 9.4/10. Verdict: Sell.
14 analysts cover DAN with a consensus score of 3.9/5. Average price target: $38.
What does Dana Incorporated do?Dana Incorporated supplies power-conveyance and energy-management solutions to light and commercial vehicle OEMs...
Dana Incorporated supplies power-conveyance and energy-management solutions to light and commercial vehicle OEMs worldwide, with $7.5 billion in 2025 sales split 70%/30% between its two segments across 24 countries. Ford Motor Company represented approximately 32% of 2025 sales, the top 10 customers collectively 76%, and the Off-Highway business was divested to Allison Transmission in January 2026.