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CRWDCrowdStrike Holdings, Inc.Sell5.2·$191.69+0.71%
SellModerate Confidence
Investment thesis

The company combines 26% revenue growth with a 38% free cash flow margin and a Rule of 40 score of 63 — generating substantial cash despite GAAP losses — but shares trade at a forward multiple of 111x earnings and a PEG of 5.64, a price that demands continued flawless execution and leaves no margin of safety against a growth deceleration.

Thesis pillars

  • Strong Revenue Growth EngineStable
  • Fcf Positive Despite Gaap LossStable
  • Premium Valuation Demands PerfectionImproving
  • +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning

Full reasoning →

Open full analysis

CrowdStrike Holdings, Inc. (CRWD) Stock Analysis

Range Bound setup

SellVALUE-TRAP 2/5GrowthModerate Confidence

Technology · Software - Infrastructure

Earnings in 4 days (2026-08-26). Expect elevated volatility around the report — consider waiting for post-earnings price action before new entries.

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $191.69 — A.R:R is negative (-0.1) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Earnings in 4 days (event risk).

CrowdStrike delivers cloud-native cybersecurity through its Falcon platform, which includes 33 cloud modules covering endpoint security, cloud workloads, identity protection, and SIEM on a SaaS subscription model with 1-3 year terms. The company posted net losses of $162.5... Read more

$191.69-0.5% A.UpsideScore 5.2/10#85 of 106 Software - Infrastructure
QualityF-score8 / 9FCF yield0.99%
Stop $178.51Target $222.95(resistance)A.R:R -0.1:1
Analyst target$207.70+8.4%50 analysts
$222.95our TP
$191.69price
$207.70mean
$103
$256

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $191.69 — A.R:R is negative (-0.1) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Earnings in 4 days (event risk). Chart setup: RSI 43 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Score 5.2/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 4/8 gates (clean insider activity, news boost analyst 0.70, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio and earnings proximity 4d<=7d. Suitability: moderate.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-08-22
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Wed, Aug 26, 20264d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Strong growth profile
Recent Analyst detected in news
Risks
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining
Earnings in 4 days (event risk)
Expensive valuation

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)
P/E (Fwd)122.5
Mkt Cap$195.5B
EV/EBITDA3232.8
Profit Mgn-0.6%
ROE-0.2%
Rev Growth25.6%
Beta1.23
DividendNone
Rating analysts61

Quality Signals

Piotroski F8/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C1.46bearish
IV75%elevated
Max Pain$110-42.6% vs spot

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-04-21Item 5.02LOW
    On April 16, 2026, CrowdStrike Board approved a PSU award to President Michael Sentonas under the 2019 Equity Incentive Plan, targeting 100,000 PSUs subject to performance and service conditions. Routine compensatory arrangement for existing officer; no departure or appointment.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.

Not investment advice. TrendMatrix is not a registered investment adviser. Our content is for informational and educational purposes only. Consult your own licensed investment adviser, broker, or tax professional before making any investment decision.

Conflicts and positions. The TrendMatrix editorial team frequently holds personal long-term positions in securities discussed. We disclose positions held at the time of publication on each piece. We maintain a trading-window policy: we do not initiate or close positions in the same direction as a TrendMatrix publication within 24 hours before or 72 hours after publication.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

3 floor-breakers·1 ceiling hit

Priced at a premium — multiples above sector norms. Needs delivery on growth + margins to justify.static

Ps
0.0
Forward Pe
1.0
Peg Ratio
1.8
Analyst Target
4.0
Forward P/E: 122.5xPEG: 6.19Expensive valuation

Momentum below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Macd
0.0
Obv
1.0
Volume
3.8
Ma Position
4.0
Rsi
5.5
Volume distribution (falling OBV)Above 200-day MA

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Value Rank
0.5
Quality Rank
2.3
Growth Rank
7.1
GatesMomentum 2.9<4.5A.R:R -0.1=NEGATIVEEARNINGS PROXIMITY 4d<=7dExecutive change: officer departure/appointmentInsider activity: OKNEWS BOOST ANALYST 0.70SEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARRange BoundSuitability: Moderate
RSI
43 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $174.14Resistance $227.50

Price Targets

$179
$223
A.Upside-0.5%
A.R:R-0.1:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-0.5% upside)
! momentum at 2.9 (below the engine's 4.5 threshold)
! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside

Earnings

B
B
M
M
2/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-08-26 (4d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is CRWD stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $191.69 — A.R:R is negative (-0.1) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Earnings in 4 days (event risk). Chart setup: RSI 43 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Prior stop was $178.51. Score 5.2/10, moderate confidence.

What is the CRWD stock price target?

Take-profit target: $222.95 (-0.5% upside). Prior stop was $178.51. Stop-loss: $178.51.

What are the risks of investing in CRWD?

Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Earnings in 4 days (event risk); Expensive valuation.

Is CRWD overvalued or undervalued?

CrowdStrike Holdings, Inc. trades at a P/E of N/A (forward 122.5). TrendMatrix value score: 1.4/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about CRWD?

61 analysts cover CRWD with a consensus score of 3.9/5. Average price target: $208.

What does CrowdStrike Holdings, Inc. do?CrowdStrike delivers cloud-native cybersecurity through its Falcon platform, which includes 33 cloud modules covering...

CrowdStrike delivers cloud-native cybersecurity through its Falcon platform, which includes 33 cloud modules covering endpoint security, cloud workloads, identity protection, and SIEM on a SaaS subscription model with 1-3 year terms. The company posted net losses of $162.5 million in fiscal 2026 and $15.2 million in fiscal 2025, having achieved net income of $72.2 million in fiscal 2024. Its data flywheel—crowdsourced telemetry from endpoints trains AI models for all customers—creates the stated network effect.

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