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CRCCalifornia Resources CorporatioSell4.8·$58.61+3.08%
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California Resources Corporatio (CRC) Stock Analysis

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5Moderate Confidence

Energy · Oil & Gas E&P

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $58.61: a dimension score below its floor triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.8/10 and A.R:R 3.1:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum.

California Resources Corporation operates as an independent energy and carbon management company in the United States. The company operates in two segments, Oil and Natural Gas, and Carbon Management. It explores, develops, and produces crude oil, oil condensate, natural gas... Read more

$58.61+22.4% A.UpsideScore 4.8/10#34 of 37 Oil & Gas E&P
QualityF-score6 / 9FCF yield8.42%
IncomeYield2.76%Payout37.77%sustainable
Stop $54.51Target $71.74(analyst − 13%)A.R:R 3.1:1
Analyst target$82.45+40.7%11 analysts
$71.74our TP
$58.61price
$82.45mean
$91

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $58.61: a dimension score below its floor triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.8/10 and A.R:R 3.1:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Score 4.8/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 6/8 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, news events none recent, earnings proximity 51d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum. Suitability: moderate.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-06-14
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Tue, Aug 4, 202651d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
No bull case signals
Risks
Concentration risk — Geographic: California
Concentration risk — Geographic: California markets
Quality below floor (3.1 < 4.0)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)
P/E (Fwd)13.2
Mkt Cap$5.2B
EV/EBITDA18.3
Profit Mgn-13.4%
ROE-14.4%
Rev Growth6.7%
Beta0.90
Dividend2.76%
Rating analysts16

Quality Signals

Piotroski F6/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C0.52bullish
IV76%elevated

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHGeographicCalifornia
    10-K Item 1A: 'Our producing properties are located primarily in California, making us vulnerable to risks associated with having operations concentrated in this geographic area'
  • HIGHGeographicCalifornia markets
    10-K Item 1A: 'We sell nearly all of our crude oil production into California markets'

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-03-16Item 5.02LOW
    Michael Helm appointed VP-Finance and Controller, serving as principal accounting officer, effective March 16, 2026. Previously Berry Corporation Chief Accounting Officer and CFO (2023-2025). No reason cited for predecessor's departure.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.

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Conflicts and positions. The TrendMatrix editorial team frequently holds personal long-term positions in securities discussed. We disclose positions held at the time of publication on each piece. We maintain a trading-window policy: we do not initiate or close positions in the same direction as a TrendMatrix publication within 24 hours before or 72 hours after publication.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

4 floor-breakers

Momentum below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Macd
0.3
Obv
1.0
Volume
1.4
Ma Position
4.0
Rsi
5.5
Volume distribution (falling OBV)Above 200-day MA

Cyclical trough — margins compressed or negative. Profitability typically recovers with the cycle, but floor fires on current data.static

Roe
0.0
Roa
0.0
Operating Margin
0.0
Net Margin
0.0
Current Ratio
2.2
Moat
5.9
Fcf Quality
6.0
Piotroski F
6.7
Gross Margin
6.9
FCF-positive but moderate margins (FCF margin 13%, FCF yield 8.4%)

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Quality Rank
1.1
Growth Rank
3.8
Value Rank
8.3

No near-term catalyst priced in. Thesis progression will come from fundamentals grinding, not event reaction.static

Surprise Avg
0.0
Earnings History
3.3
Erm
5.0
Earnings Timing
5.0
Dividend Safety
6.0
Earnings concerns: 2B/2MDividend: 276.0%
GatesMomentum 2.4<4.5Executive change: officer departure/appointmentA.R:R 3.1 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 51d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Moderate
RSI
42 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $55.81Resistance $63.48

Price Targets

$55
$72
A.Upside+22.4%
A.R:R3.1:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Quality below floor (3.1 < 4.0)
! momentum at 2.4 (below the engine's 4.5 threshold)

Earnings

B
B
M
M
2/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-08-04 (51d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is CRC stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $58.61: a dimension score below its floor triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.8/10 and A.R:R 3.1:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Prior stop was $54.51. Score 4.8/10, moderate confidence.

What is the CRC stock price target?

Take-profit target: $71.74 (+22.4% upside). Prior stop was $54.51. Stop-loss: $54.51.

What are the risks of investing in CRC?

Concentration risk — Geographic: California; Concentration risk — Geographic: California markets; Quality below floor (3.1 < 4.0).

Is CRC overvalued or undervalued?

California Resources Corporatio trades at a P/E of N/A (forward 13.2). TrendMatrix value score: 7.3/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about CRC?

16 analysts cover CRC with a consensus score of 4.2/5. Average price target: $82.

What does California Resources Corporatio do?California Resources Corporation operates as an independent energy and carbon management company in the United States....

California Resources Corporation operates as an independent energy and carbon management company in the United States. The company operates in two segments, Oil and Natural Gas, and Carbon Management. It explores, develops, and produces crude oil, oil condensate, natural gas liquids and natural gas to california refineries, marketers, and other purchasers. The company also provides Carbon TerraVault which builds, installs, operates, and maintains CO2 capture equipment, transportation assets, and storage facilities. In addition, it owns and operates power generation facilities, as well as smaller gas-fired power plants used to generate power for oil and natural gas operations. The company was incorporated in 2014 and is based in Long Beach, California.

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