Value
6.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 4.5 |
| P/S | 7.5 |
| EV/EBITDA | 0.0 |
| Fwd P/E | 5.0 |
| PEG | 9.7 |
| Analyst target | 7.5 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 24.9x
- ▸PEG: 0.55
COCO · Why this verdict
Why The Vita Coco Company (COCO) is rated BUY WAIT
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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VerdictBUY WAIT
Overall score6.6/10
ConfidenceHIGH
MacroRISK_OFF
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Vita Coco is a high-quality, fast-growing coconut water brand with a perfect earnings beat streak and a 21.7% gap to the analyst target, offset by near-total reliance on one product, 16% short interest and a stock still below its 200-day average.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
The stock is below its 200-day average, which is still rising 0.9% per 30 days, with falling on-balance volume, short interest at 16% and a put/call ratio of 1.33. Momentum breakdown | Price should reclaim its 200-day average and short interest should decline. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterHeavy short interest and elevated put buying show informed skepticism, and falling volume suggests distribution rather than a simple pullback. | ||
Quality is high at 8.0/10, with ROE of 32%, margins of 16%, a wide economic moat and a Piotroski F-Score of 9/9. Quality breakdown | ROE should stay above 25% and margins near 16% as the business scales over the next 12 months. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterFree cash flow is only 74% of net income, flagged as an earnings quality warning, and gross margin scores just 3.8/10, leaving room for input cost pressure. | ||
Growth is strong at 34% YoY, with quarterly revenue of $216.2M versus $168.8M a year earlier, and EPS has beaten estimates in all 4 of the last 4 quarters. Last 4 quarters | Quarterly revenue should keep growing year over year and EPS should keep beating estimates. | →Stable |
| CounterBeats of this size can raise the bar, and quarterly revenue is volatile (from $127.8M to $216.2M), so a slower period could reverse sentiment quickly. | ||
Coconut water makes up 96.0% of product revenue and the Americas segment 83.0% of geography, leaving the business exposed to one product and one region. Bear case | Revenue share outside coconut water and outside the Americas should rise from its current small base. | →Stable |
| CounterConcentration in a category the company leads may be a strength, and the Americas has been the engine of the 34% growth so far. | ||
The $56.53 price is 21.7% below the $68.82 analyst target, with a risk-reward ratio of 1.78. Analyst target | Price should close part of the gap to the $68.82 target as results keep beating estimates. | ↑Improving |
| CounterDownside to the $49.36 stop is 12.2%, a large share of the 21.7% upside, and the stock is below its 200-day average. | ||
The stock is below its 200-day average, which is still rising 0.9% per 30 days, with falling on-balance volume, short interest at 16% and a put/call ratio of 1.33.
↓DeterioratingMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- Price should reclaim its 200-day average and short interest should decline.
CounterHeavy short interest and elevated put buying show informed skepticism, and falling volume suggests distribution rather than a simple pullback.
Quality is high at 8.0/10, with ROE of 32%, margins of 16%, a wide economic moat and a Piotroski F-Score of 9/9.
↓DeterioratingQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- ROE should stay above 25% and margins near 16% as the business scales over the next 12 months.
CounterFree cash flow is only 74% of net income, flagged as an earnings quality warning, and gross margin scores just 3.8/10, leaving room for input cost pressure.
Growth is strong at 34% YoY, with quarterly revenue of $216.2M versus $168.8M a year earlier, and EPS has beaten estimates in all 4 of the last 4 quarters.
→StableLast 4 quarters
- Expectation
- Quarterly revenue should keep growing year over year and EPS should keep beating estimates.
CounterBeats of this size can raise the bar, and quarterly revenue is volatile (from $127.8M to $216.2M), so a slower period could reverse sentiment quickly.
Coconut water makes up 96.0% of product revenue and the Americas segment 83.0% of geography, leaving the business exposed to one product and one region.
→StableBear case
- Expectation
- Revenue share outside coconut water and outside the Americas should rise from its current small base.
CounterConcentration in a category the company leads may be a strength, and the Americas has been the engine of the 34% growth so far.
The $56.53 price is 21.7% below the $68.82 analyst target, with a risk-reward ratio of 1.78.
↑ImprovingAnalyst target
- Expectation
- Price should close part of the gap to the $68.82 target as results keep beating estimates.
CounterDownside to the $49.36 stop is 12.2%, a large share of the 21.7% upside, and the stock is below its 200-day average.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
8.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 10.0 |
| ROA | 10.0 |
| Gross margin | 3.8 |
| Op margin | 8.0 |
| Net margin | 7.8 |
| Current ratio | 8.4 |
| FCF quality | 5.6 |
| Moat | 8.2 |
| Piotroski F | 10.0 |
- ▸Excellent ROE: 32%
- ▸Strong margins: 16%
- ▸Earnings quality warning: 74% FCF/NI
- ▸Wide economic moat
Growth
10.0/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 10.0 |
| EPS growth | 10.0 |
- ▸Strong growth: 34% YoY
Momentum
1.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 4.5 |
| MACD | 0.0 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 2.2 |
| Volume | 1.1 |
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Below 200-MA but MA still rising (+0.9%/30d) — pullback in uptrend, not confirmed weakness
Sentiment
7.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 6.5 |
| Analyst rating | 7.0 |
| Price target | 9.2 |
- ▸Light analyst coverage (10.0) — signal dampened
- ▸Analyst upside: 40%
Insider
4.8/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 4.4 |
| notable moves | 5.0 |
- ▸No net insider activity — $0 (0.000% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
6.7/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 2.8 |
| quality rank | 7.0 |
| growth rank | 8.5 |
- ▸Industry growth leader
- ▸Conservative debt levels
Technical
4.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 5.8 |
| support resistance | 5.9 |
| 52w position | 3.1 |
Risk (lower is worse)
5.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 2.4 |
| days to cover | 5.2 |
| volatility | 0.0 |
| put call | 5.8 |
| implied vol | 3.8 |
| beta | 8.5 |
| debt equity | 9.9 |
- ▸High short interest: 15%
- ▸Concentration risks: 3 HIGH, 1 MED (10-K Item 1A — sized via position_sizing, validated via buy_confidence)
Catalyst
7.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 10.0 |
| news activity | 8.0 |
- ▸Perfect beat streak: 4Q
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Growth is cheap relative to earnings, but the technical setup has not yet produced a breakout above resistance (PEG 0.55, quality 8.0/10, growth 10.0/10).
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_C2_GARP_WAIT|ENTRY_STICKY:WITHIN_BANDPassed (6)
- ASYMMETRY:2.0>=1.5
- INSIDER:OK
- NEWS_BOOST:ANALYST:0.60
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:110d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- MOMENTUM:1.8<4.5
Warning (1)
- 8K_CSUITE_CHANGE:5.02 (officer departure/appointment)
Reward-to-Risk
1.99
Upside
+22.1%
Downside
11.1%
Sizing output
STARTER
SetupRange Bound — RSI 51 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band
EdgeTemporary headwind — High quality (8.0) with weak momentum (1.8)
SuitabilityAggressive — MCap $3.2B<$5B
Investment implication
The C-path quality+growth combination triggered the STRONG_BUY_WAIT verdict: quality 8.0 and growth 10.0 both clear their thresholds, with asymmetric R:R of 1.99 supporting the read.
The strongest dimensions are Growth at 10.0, Quality at 8.0, and Catalyst at 7.6; the weakest are Momentum at 1.8, Insider at 4.8, and Technical at 4.9. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 1.99 and an engine sizing output of STARTER.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1High Quality Compounder Economics
Trip ifNet margin falls below 10% from current margins of about 16%.
- P2Fast Revenue Growth Beat Streak
Trip ifQuarterly revenue growth falls below 10% YoY for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P3Single Product Geographic Concentration
Trip ifCoconut water share of revenue exceeds 98% from the current 96.0%.
- P4Analyst Target Upside
Trip ifAnalyst target falls below $59.40, leaving less than 5% upside from the current $56.53.
- P5Pullback High Short Interest
Trip ifShort interest rises above 20% of float from the current 16%.