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KOFCoca Cola Femsa S.A.B. de C.V.Sell5.3·$115.24
SellModerate Confidence
Investment thesis

Despite a forward earnings multiple of 12.7x and a Piotroski F-Score of 7 out of 9, two of the most recent four quarters missed estimates, revenue and earnings growth are near-zero, and the stock has already reached its near-term resistance target with only about 1.3% of headroom remaining — the setup favors patience over adding exposure.

Thesis pillars

  • Dividend Coverage Uncertainty↓Deteriorating
  • Attractive Valuation At Resistance↑Improving
  • Consecutive Earnings Misses↓Deteriorating
  • +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning

Pillars as of Jul 3, 2026

Full reasoning →

Open full analysis

Coca Cola Femsa S.A.B. de C.V. (KOF) Stock Analysis

SellQualityModerate Confidence

Consumer Defensive · Beverages - Non-Alcoholic

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $115.24 — A.R:R is negative (-0.7) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Consecutive earnings misses (2).

Coca-Cola FEMSA, S.A.B. de C.V., a franchise bottler, produces, markets, sells, and distributes Coca-Cola trademarked beverages in Mexico, Guatemala, Nicaragua, Costa Rica, Panama, Colombia, Brazil, Argentina, and Uruguay. The company offers sparkling beverages, including colas... Read more

$115.24-7.5% A.UpsideScore 5.3/10#9 of 14 Beverages - Non-Alcoholic
QualityF-score8 / 9FCF yield—
IncomeYield3.80%(5y avg 3.55%)Payout501.47%at-risk
Stop $108.20Analyst target $106.56(reached)A.R:R -0.7:1
Analyst consensus$122.48+6.3%14 analysts
$115.24price
$122.48mean
$106
$134

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $115.24 — A.R:R is negative (-0.7) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Consecutive earnings misses (2). Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Score 5.3/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 5/7 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, earnings proximity 116d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: moderate.

TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Tue, Feb 23, 2027116d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Sector modifier (Consumer Defensive): +0.8
Risks
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining
Consecutive earnings misses (2)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)140.5
P/E (Fwd)14.6
Mkt Cap$24.2B
EV/EBITDA1.4
Profit Mgn8.0%
ROE16.6%
Rev Growth10.9%
Beta0.52
Dividend3.80%
Rating analysts16

Quality Signals

Piotroski F8/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C1.18bearish
IV35%normal
Max Pain$100-13.2% vs spot

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy

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About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.

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Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

10 dimensions · all in-band

GatesMomentum 4.5<4.5A.R:R -0.7=NEGATIVEInsider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsEARNINGS PROXIMITY 116d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Moderate
RSI
65 · Neutral
↑ 20D MA↑ 50D MA↑ 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $103.50Resistance $122.14

Price Targets

A.Upside-7.5%
A.R:R-0.7:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0%
Max %0%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-7.5% upside)
! News modifier -1: HOLD_IF_HOLDING → SELL_IF_HOLDING
! momentum at 4.5 (below the engine's 4.5 threshold)

Earnings

B
B
M
M
2/4 beats
Next Earnings2027-02-23 (116d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is KOF stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $115.24 — A.R:R is negative (-0.7) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Consecutive earnings misses (2). Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Prior stop was $108.20. Score 5.3/10, moderate confidence.

What is the KOF stock price target?

Analyst target $106.56 reached (−7.5% from $115.24); no take-profit level is published. Prior stop was $108.20. Stop-loss: $108.20.

What are the risks of investing in KOF?

Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Consecutive earnings misses (2).

Is KOF overvalued or undervalued?

Coca Cola Femsa S.A.B. de C.V. trades at a P/E of 140.5 (forward 14.6). TrendMatrix value score: 6.3/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about KOF?

16 analysts cover KOF with a consensus score of 4.0/5. Average price target: $122.

What does Coca Cola Femsa S.A.B. de C.V. do?Coca-Cola FEMSA, S.A.B. de C.V., a franchise bottler, produces, markets, sells, and distributes Coca-Cola trademarked...

Coca-Cola FEMSA, S.A.B. de C.V., a franchise bottler, produces, markets, sells, and distributes Coca-Cola trademarked beverages in Mexico, Guatemala, Nicaragua, Costa Rica, Panama, Colombia, Brazil, Argentina, and Uruguay. The company offers sparkling beverages, including colas and flavored sparkling beverages; waters; and other non-carbonated beverages, including tea, sports drinks, energy drinks, fruit-based beverages, juice, coffee, milk, value-added dairy, and plant-based drinks. It also distributes and sells beer products under the Heineken, Estrella Galicia, and Therezópolis brands; alcoholic ready-to-drink beverages, such as Bacardí Coca-Cola and Topo Chico Hard Seltzer; and Monster products. The company sells its products to distributors, retail outlets, wholesale supermarkets, discount and convenience stores, retailers, points-of-sale outlets, restaurants and bars, stadiums, auditoriums, theaters, and home deliveries. Coca-Cola FEMSA, S.A.B. de C.V. was founded in 1979 and is headquartered in Mexico City, Mexico.

Related stocks: COCO (The Vita Coco Company, Inc.) · MNST (Monster Beverage Corporation) · COKE (Coca-Cola Consolidated, Inc.) · AKO-A (Embotelladora Andina S.A.) · AKO-B (Embotelladora Andina S.A.)
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