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KOFCoca Cola Femsa S.A.B. de C.V.Hold5.9·$107.51-1.12%
HoldModerate Confidence
Investment thesis

Despite a forward earnings multiple of 12.7x and a Piotroski F-Score of 7 out of 9, two of the most recent four quarters missed estimates, revenue and earnings growth are near-zero, and the stock has already reached its near-term resistance target with only about 1.3% of headroom remaining — the setup favors patience over adding exposure.

Thesis pillars

  • Dividend Coverage UncertaintyImproving
  • Attractive Valuation At ResistanceDeteriorating
  • Consecutive Earnings MissesImproving
  • +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning

Full reasoning →

Open full analysis

Coca Cola Femsa S.A.B. de C.V. (KOF) Stock Analysis

Breakout setup

HoldQualityModerate Confidence

Consumer Defensive · Beverages - Non-Alcoholic

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $107.51, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reason: Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining.

Coca-Cola FEMSA, S.A.B. de C.V., a franchise bottler, produces, markets, sells, and distributes Coca-Cola trademarked beverages in Mexico, Guatemala, Nicaragua, Costa Rica, Panama, Colombia, Brazil, Argentina, and Uruguay. The company offers sparkling beverages, including colas... Read more

$107.51-4.7% A.UpsideScore 5.9/10#7 of 13 Beverages - Non-Alcoholic
QualityF-score8 / 9FCF yield
IncomeYield3.89%(5y avg 3.75%)Payout623.47%at-risk
Stop $102.17Target $109.15(resistance)A.R:R -0.8:1
Analyst target$117.80+9.6%13 analysts
$109.15our TP
$107.51price
$117.80mean
$133

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $107.51, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reason: Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining. Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 65, MACD bullish. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Score 5.9/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 6/7 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, earnings proximity 86d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: moderate.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-07-29
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Fri, Oct 23, 202686d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (3/4)
Attractive valuation
Positive momentum
Risks
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)
P/E (Fwd)13.8
Mkt Cap$22.8B
EV/EBITDA1.5
Profit Mgn8.1%
ROE17.1%
Rev Growth5.5%
Beta0.53
Dividend3.89%
Rating analysts17

Quality Signals

Piotroski F8/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C0.64bullish
IV36%normal
Max Pain$60-44.2% vs spot

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

10 dimensions · all in-band

GatesA.R:R -0.8=NEGATIVEMomentum 7.1>=5.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsEARNINGS PROXIMITY 86d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARBreakoutSuitability: Moderate
RSI
65 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $101.00Resistance $111.38

Price Targets

$102
$109
A.Upside-4.7%
A.R:R-0.8:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-4.7% upside)
! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside

Earnings

B
B
B
M
3/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-10-23 (86d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is KOF stock a buy right now?

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $107.51, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reason: Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining. Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 65, MACD bullish. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Target $109.15 (+1.5%), stop $102.17 (−5.2%), A.R:R -0.8:1. Score 5.9/10, moderate confidence.

What is the KOF stock price target?

Take-profit target: $109.15 (-4.7% upside). Target $109.15 (+1.5%), stop $102.17 (−5.2%), A.R:R -0.8:1. Stop-loss: $102.17.

What are the risks of investing in KOF?

Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining.

Is KOF overvalued or undervalued?

Coca Cola Femsa S.A.B. de C.V. trades at a P/E of N/A (forward 13.8). TrendMatrix value score: 7.7/10. Verdict: Hold.

What do analysts say about KOF?

17 analysts cover KOF with a consensus score of 3.9/5. Average price target: $118.

What does Coca Cola Femsa S.A.B. de C.V. do?Coca-Cola FEMSA, S.A.B. de C.V., a franchise bottler, produces, markets, sells, and distributes Coca-Cola trademarked...

Coca-Cola FEMSA, S.A.B. de C.V., a franchise bottler, produces, markets, sells, and distributes Coca-Cola trademarked beverages in Mexico, Guatemala, Nicaragua, Costa Rica, Panama, Colombia, Brazil, Argentina, and Uruguay. The company offers sparkling beverages, including colas and flavored sparkling beverages; waters; and other non-carbonated beverages, including tea, sports drinks, energy drinks, fruit-based beverages, juice, coffee, milk, value-added dairy, and plant-based drinks. It also distributes and sells beer products under the Heineken, Estrella Galicia, and Therezópolis brands; alcoholic ready-to-drink beverages, such as Bacardí Coca-Cola and Topo Chico Hard Seltzer; and Monster products. The company sells its products to distributors, retail outlets, wholesale supermarkets, discount and convenience stores, retailers, points-of-sale outlets, restaurants and bars, stadiums, auditoriums, theaters, and home deliveries. Coca-Cola FEMSA, S.A.B. de C.V. was founded in 1979 and is headquartered in Mexico City, Mexico.

Related stocks: COCO (The Vita Coco Company, Inc.) · CELH (Celsius Holdings, Inc.) · COKE (Coca-Cola Consolidated, Inc.) · MNST (Monster Beverage Corporation) · AKO-A (Embotelladora Andina S.A.)
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