Three consecutive earnings beats averaging roughly 15% above estimates demonstrate improving operational discipline, but the stock already trades well above analyst consensus and free cash flow remains negative, making the risk/reward unfavorable for new buyers at current levels.
Thesis pillars
- Price Exceeds Analyst Consensus↓Deteriorating
- Consistent Earnings Outperformance→Stable
- Negative Cash Flow No Moat→Stable
- +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning
Pillars as of Jul 3, 2026, based on the 10-K filed Feb 9, 2026
Cleveland-Cliffs Inc. (CLF) Stock Analysis
Breakout setup · Sector Rotation edge
Basic Materials · Steel
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $13.94: Quality below floor (2.4 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.5/10. Specifically: High short interest: 13%; Below-average business quality.
Cleveland-Cliffs is a vertically integrated North America-based steel producer employing approximately 25,000 people across the U.S. and Canada, selling primarily to automotive (30% of 2025 revenues), infrastructure/manufacturing (29%), distributors (28%), and steel producers... Read more
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $13.94: Quality below floor (2.4 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.5/10. Specifically: High short interest: 13%; Below-average business quality. Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 62, MACD bullish. Score 5.5/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 8/9 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news boost analyst 0.60, news boost analyst cluster(3), earnings proximity 101d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.
Recent developments
updated 2026-10-29Recent Developments — Cleveland-Cliffs Inc.
Latest news
- NEWS Reported Earlier, Cleveland-Cliffs Confirms Stelco Full Compliance With 34 Undertakings; Requests Minister Joly Meeting — benzinga Oct 27, 2026 neutral
- NEWS Canada Threatens Cleveland-Cliffs With Forced Sale of Assets Over Layoff Plans — fiscal.ai Oct 22, 2026 negative
- NEWS B. Riley Securities Maintains Buy on Cleveland-Cliffs, Raises Price Target to $18 — benzinga Oct 22, 2026 positive
- NEWS Barclays Maintains Underweight on Cleveland-Cliffs, Raises Price Target to $12 — benzinga Oct 22, 2026 positive
- NEWS JP Morgan Maintains Neutral on Cleveland-Cliffs, Raises Price Target to $13 — benzinga Oct 22, 2026 positive
Generated 2026-10-29T11:08:50Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- MEDIUMCustomerdirect automotive30%10-K Item 1: 'Direct automotive ... 30 | %'
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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Rating Breakdown
3 floor-breakers·1 ceiling hit
Cyclical trough — margins compressed or negative. Profitability typically recovers with the cycle, but floor fires on current data.static
Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $13.94: Quality below floor (2.4 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.5/10. Specifically: High short interest: 13%; Below-average business quality. Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 62, MACD bullish. Prior stop was $12.96. Score 5.5/10, moderate confidence.
Analyst target $12.22 reached (−12.3% from $13.94); no take-profit level is published. Prior stop was $12.96. Stop-loss: $12.96.
Target reached (-12.3% upside); Quality below floor (2.4 < 4.0).
Cleveland-Cliffs Inc. trades at a P/E of N/A (forward 9.5). TrendMatrix value score: 7.0/10. Verdict: Sell.
20 analysts cover CLF with a consensus score of 3.3/5. Average price target: $14.
What does Cleveland-Cliffs Inc. do?Cleveland-Cliffs is a vertically integrated North America-based steel producer employing approximately 25,000 people...
Cleveland-Cliffs is a vertically integrated North America-based steel producer employing approximately 25,000 people across the U.S. and Canada, selling primarily to automotive (30% of 2025 revenues), infrastructure/manufacturing (29%), distributors (28%), and steel producers (13%). Roughly 35-40% of flat-rolled shipments sell under fixed-price contracts; the remainder at spot or index-linked prices.