Ternium is a deeply discounted steel producer at a forward P/E of 8.8x with strong volume accumulation above its 200-day moving average, but an earnings quality red flag at negative 98% free cash flow, a commodity cycle peak signal, and a put/call ratio of 5.27 constrain the investment case.
Thesis pillars
- Commodity Cycle Peak Risk↑Improving
- Extreme Put Call Ratio↑Improving
- Negative Free Cash Flow→Stable
- +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning
Pillars as of Jul 3, 2026
Ternium S.A. Ternium S.A. (TX) Stock Analysis
Sector Rotation edge
Basic Materials · Steel
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $53.92: a dimension score below its floor triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.9/10. Specifically: Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum.
Ternium S.A., together with its subsidiaries, manufactures and distributes steel products in Mexico, Southern Region, Brazil, and internationally. The company operates through two segments, Steel and Mining. The Steel segment offers slabs, heavy plates, hot and cold rolled... Read more
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $53.92: a dimension score below its floor triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.9/10. Specifically: Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Score 5.9/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 4/8 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio and earnings proximity 5d<=7d and materials cycle peak fwd=7.0x,ratio=0.47x. Suitability: moderate.
Recent developments
updated 2026-10-29Recent Developments — Ternium S.A. Ternium S.A.
Latest news
- NEWS Wells Fargo Maintains Equal-Weight on Ternium, Raises Price Target to $56 — benzinga Oct 6, 2026 positive
- NEWS Transcript: Ternium Q2 2026 Earnings Conference Call — benzinga Sep 17, 2026 neutral
- NEWS JP Morgan Maintains Overweight on Ternium, Raises Price Target to $67.5 — benzinga Sep 4, 2026
- NEWS UBS Maintains Neutral on Ternium, Raises Price Target to $59 — benzinga Aug 27, 2026
- NEWS This Teradyne Analyst Is No Longer Bullish; Here Are Top 5 Downgrades For Friday — benzinga Aug 21, 2026
Generated 2026-10-29T11:08:52Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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Rating Breakdown
3 floor-breakers·1 ceiling hit
Momentum below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
No near-term catalyst priced in. Thesis progression will come from fundamentals grinding, not event reaction.static
Quality below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $53.92: a dimension score below its floor triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.9/10. Specifically: Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Prior stop was $51.13. Score 5.9/10, moderate confidence.
Analyst target $53.51 reached (−0.8% from $53.92); no take-profit level is published. Prior stop was $51.13. Stop-loss: $51.13.
Commodity cycle peak: fwd P/E 7.0× (below 12) + fwd/trail 0.47× (below 0.55). EPS just expanded off a commodity-price surge — forward estimate may be built on stale spot, mean-reversion risk unpriced.; Target reached (-0.8% upside); Quality below floor (3.8 < 4.0).
Ternium S.A. Ternium S.A. trades at a P/E of 15.0 (forward 7.0). TrendMatrix value score: 8.1/10. Verdict: Sell.
21 analysts cover TX with a consensus score of 3.9/5. Average price target: $62.
What does Ternium S.A. Ternium S.A. do?Ternium S.A., together with its subsidiaries, manufactures and distributes steel products in Mexico, Southern Region,...
Ternium S.A., together with its subsidiaries, manufactures and distributes steel products in Mexico, Southern Region, Brazil, and internationally. The company operates through two segments, Steel and Mining. The Steel segment offers slabs, heavy plates, hot and cold rolled products, coated products, stamped steel parts for the automotive industry, roll-formed and tubular products, billets, bars, and other products, including sales of energy. Its Mining segment sells iron ore and pellets. It also provides medical and social; scrap; and engineering and other services. In addition, the company engages in the exploration, exploitation, and pelletizing of iron ore. Ternium S.A. was founded in 1961 and is based in Luxembourg, Luxembourg. Ternium S.A. is a subsidiary of Techint Holdings S.à r.l.