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STLDSteel Dynamics, Inc.Hold6.5·$239.79+1.14%
HoldModerate Confidence
Investment thesis

Steel Dynamics earns best-in-class peer rankings for return on equity and margins, generates strong year-over-year earnings growth of 46%, and has received recent positive analyst mentions, but has already surpassed its analyst consensus price target, carries a negative free cash flow flag, and posted mixed earnings results over the past 4 quarters.

Thesis pillars

  • Analyst Target Reached No UpsideStable
  • Best In Class Peer Margins RoeStable
  • Earnings Growth 46pct YoyStable
  • +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning

Full reasoning →

Open full analysis

Steel Dynamics, Inc. (STLD) Stock Analysis

HoldGrowthQualityModerate Confidence

Basic Materials · Steel

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $239.79, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.9).

Steel Dynamics, Inc. is a leading industrial metals solutions company, with facilities located throughout the United States and Mexico. The company operates a circular manufacturing model, producing high-quality, lower-carbon-emission products with recycled scrap as the primary... Read more

$239.79-1.3% A.UpsideScore 6.5/10#1 of 14 Steel
QualityF-score7 / 9FCF yield0.68%
IncomeYield0.89%(5y avg 1.40%)Payout18.69%sustainable
Stop $224.81Target $257.97(resistance)A.R:R -0.1:1
Analyst target$272.14+13.5%14 analysts
$257.97our TP
$239.79price
$272.14mean
$221
$310

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $239.79, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.9). Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Mixed signals. Hold existing position. Score 6.5/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 6/9 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, news events none recent, earnings proximity 36d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-09-14

Recent Developments — Steel Dynamics, Inc.

Material events (past 30 days)

  • 8K Aug 18, 2026 MEDIUM Item 5.02: /s/ Theresa E. Wagler Date: August 18, 2026 | By: | Theresa E. Wagler | Title: | Executive Vice President and | | Chief Financial Officer

Generated 2026-09-14T05:21:58Z.

TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Mon, Oct 19, 202636d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (3/4)
Attractive valuation
Strong growth profile
Risks
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining
V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.9)
Sector modifier (Basic Materials): -0.1

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)21.8
P/E (Fwd)12.4
Mkt Cap$34.4B
EV/EBITDA14.3
Profit Mgn7.8%
ROE17.6%
Rev Growth33.4%
Beta1.51
Dividend0.89%
Rating analysts22

Quality Signals

Piotroski F7/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C2.21bearish
IV61%elevated

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-08-18Item 5.02MEDIUM
    /s/ Theresa E. Wagler Date: August 18, 2026 | By: | Theresa E. Wagler | Title: | Executive Vice President and | | Chief Financial Officer
    SEC filing →
  • 2026-08-04Item 5.02MEDIUM
    . Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers.** On August 3, 2026, Mark D.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 ceiling hit

GatesA.R:R -0.1=NEGATIVEMomentum 4.7<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)Executive change: officer departure/appointmentMomentum 4.7>=4.5Insider activity: OKNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 36d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
64 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $218.02Resistance $263.23

Price Targets

$225
$258
A.Upside-1.3%
A.R:R-0.1:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-1.3% upside)
! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside

Earnings

B
B
B
M
3/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-10-19 (36d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is STLD stock a buy right now?

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $239.79, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.9). Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Mixed signals. Hold existing position. Target $257.97 (+7.6%), stop $224.81 (−6.7%), A.R:R -0.1:1. Score 6.5/10, moderate confidence.

What is the STLD stock price target?

Take-profit target: $257.97 (-1.3% upside). Target $257.97 (+7.6%), stop $224.81 (−6.7%), A.R:R -0.1:1. Stop-loss: $224.81.

What are the risks of investing in STLD?

Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.9); Sector modifier (Basic Materials): -0.1.

Is STLD overvalued or undervalued?

Steel Dynamics, Inc. trades at a P/E of 21.8 (forward 12.4). TrendMatrix value score: 7.1/10. Verdict: Hold.

What do analysts say about STLD?

22 analysts cover STLD with a consensus score of 3.8/5. Average price target: $272.

What does Steel Dynamics, Inc. do?Steel Dynamics, Inc. is a leading industrial metals solutions company, with facilities located throughout the United...

Steel Dynamics, Inc. is a leading industrial metals solutions company, with facilities located throughout the United States and Mexico. The company operates a circular manufacturing model, producing high-quality, lower-carbon-emission products with recycled scrap as the primary input.

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