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STLDSteel Dynamics, Inc.Sell5.8·$266.54-0.25%
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Steel Dynamics, Inc. (STLD) Stock Analysis

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5Moderate Confidence

Basic Materials · Steel

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $266.54 — A.R:R is negative (-1.1) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.7).

Steel Dynamics, Inc. is a leading industrial metals solutions company, with facilities located throughout the United States and Mexico. The company operates a circular manufacturing model, producing high-quality, lower-carbon-emission products with recycled scrap as the primary... Read more

$266.54+3.2% A.UpsideScore 5.8/10#1 of 10 Steel
QualityF-score8 / 9FCF yield-0.08%
IncomeYield0.79%(5y avg 1.40%)Payout21.76%sustainable
Stop $247.62Target $274.88(resistance)A.R:R -1.1:1
Analyst target$255.91-4.0%11 analysts
$274.88our TP
$266.54price
$255.91mean
$210
$310

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $266.54 — A.R:R is negative (-1.1) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.7). Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Score 5.8/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 6/9 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, news boost analyst 0.70, earnings proximity 42d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-06-09
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Tue, Jul 21, 202642d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Positive news sentiment (+0.67)
Strong growth profile
Recent Analyst detected in news
Risks
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining
V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.7)
Sector modifier (Basic Materials): -0.1

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)28.6
P/E (Fwd)15.3
Mkt Cap$38.5B
EV/EBITDA18.2
Profit Mgn7.2%
ROE15.2%
Rev Growth19.1%
Beta1.52
Dividend0.79%
Rating analysts21

Quality Signals

Piotroski F8/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C1.90bearish
IV60%elevated

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-03-27Item 5.02MEDIUM
    [99.1](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1022671/000110465926035891/tm2610089d1_ex99-1.htm) | [A press release dated March 2 [... truncated]
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 ceiling hit

GatesA.R:R -1.1=NEGATIVEMomentum 4.8<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)Executive change: officer departure/appointmentMomentum 4.8>=4.5Insider activity: OKNEWS BOOST ANALYST 0.70EARNINGS PROXIMITY 42d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
83 · Overbought
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $219.03Resistance $280.49

Price Targets

$248
$275
A.Upside+3.1%
A.R:R-1.1:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-16.4% upside)
! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside

Earnings

B
B
M
M
2/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-21 (42d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is STLD stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $266.54 — A.R:R is negative (-1.1) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.7). Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Prior stop was $247.62. Score 5.8/10, moderate confidence.

What is the STLD stock price target?

Take-profit target: $274.88 (+3.2% upside). Prior stop was $247.62. Stop-loss: $247.62.

What are the risks of investing in STLD?

Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.7); Sector modifier (Basic Materials): -0.1.

Is STLD overvalued or undervalued?

Steel Dynamics, Inc. trades at a P/E of 28.6 (forward 15.3). TrendMatrix value score: 6.1/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about STLD?

21 analysts cover STLD with a consensus score of 3.7/5. Average price target: $256.

What does Steel Dynamics, Inc. do?Steel Dynamics, Inc. is a leading industrial metals solutions company, with facilities located throughout the United...

Steel Dynamics, Inc. is a leading industrial metals solutions company, with facilities located throughout the United States and Mexico. The company operates a circular manufacturing model, producing high-quality, lower-carbon-emission products with recycled scrap as the primary input.

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