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STLDSteel Dynamics, Inc.Hold6.6·$256.42-1.28%
HoldModerate Confidence
Investment thesis

Steel Dynamics earns best-in-class peer rankings for return on equity and margins, generates strong year-over-year earnings growth of 46%, and has received recent positive analyst mentions, but has already surpassed its analyst consensus price target, carries a negative free cash flow flag, and posted mixed earnings results over the past 4 quarters.

Thesis pillars

  • Analyst Target Reached No UpsideDeteriorating
  • Best In Class Peer Margins RoeImproving
  • Earnings Growth 46pct YoyImproving
  • +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning

Full reasoning →

Open full analysis

Steel Dynamics, Inc. (STLD) Stock Analysis

HoldGrowthQualityModerate Confidence

Basic Materials · Steel

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $256.42, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Overbought (RSI 81).

Steel Dynamics, Inc. is a leading industrial metals solutions company, with facilities located throughout the United States and Mexico. The company operates a circular manufacturing model, producing high-quality, lower-carbon-emission products with recycled scrap as the primary... Read more

$256.42-8.1% A.UpsideScore 6.6/10#1 of 14 Steel
QualityF-score7 / 9FCF yield0.63%
IncomeYield0.85%(5y avg 1.40%)Payout18.69%sustainable
Stop $239.30Target $260.24(resistance)A.R:R -0.5:1
Analyst target$270.08+5.3%12 analysts
$260.24our TP
$256.42price
$270.08mean
$221
$310

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $256.42, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Overbought (RSI 81). Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Mixed signals. Hold existing position. Score 6.6/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 6/7 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, earnings proximity 82d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.

TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Mon, Oct 19, 202682d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (3/4)
Strong growth profile
Positive insider activity
Risks
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining
Overbought (RSI 81)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)22.7
P/E (Fwd)13.8
Mkt Cap$37.5B
EV/EBITDA15.4
Profit Mgn7.8%
ROE17.6%
Rev Growth33.4%
Beta1.54
Dividend0.85%
Rating analysts21

Quality Signals

Piotroski F7/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C1.12bearish
IV51%elevated
Max Pain$135-47.4% vs spot

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker·1 ceiling hit

Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Bollinger
0.3
Support Resistance
2.0
Gap
5.0
52w Position
7.8
GatesA.R:R -0.5=NEGATIVEMomentum 6.7>=5.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsEARNINGS PROXIMITY 82d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
81 · Overbought
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $216.36Resistance $265.55

Price Targets

$239
$260
A.Upside-8.1%
A.R:R-0.5:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-8.1% upside)
! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside

Earnings

B
B
B
M
3/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-10-19 (82d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is STLD stock a buy right now?

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $256.42, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Overbought (RSI 81). Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Mixed signals. Hold existing position. Target $260.24 (+1.5%), stop $239.30 (−7.2%), A.R:R -0.5:1. Score 6.6/10, moderate confidence.

What is the STLD stock price target?

Take-profit target: $260.24 (-8.1% upside). Target $260.24 (+1.5%), stop $239.30 (−7.2%), A.R:R -0.5:1. Stop-loss: $239.30.

What are the risks of investing in STLD?

Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Overbought (RSI 81).

Is STLD overvalued or undervalued?

Steel Dynamics, Inc. trades at a P/E of 22.7 (forward 13.8). TrendMatrix value score: 6.8/10. Verdict: Hold.

What do analysts say about STLD?

21 analysts cover STLD with a consensus score of 3.7/5. Average price target: $270.

What does Steel Dynamics, Inc. do?Steel Dynamics, Inc. is a leading industrial metals solutions company, with facilities located throughout the United...

Steel Dynamics, Inc. is a leading industrial metals solutions company, with facilities located throughout the United States and Mexico. The company operates a circular manufacturing model, producing high-quality, lower-carbon-emission products with recycled scrap as the primary input.

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