Value
5.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 8.2 |
| P/S | 7.0 |
| EV/EBITDA | 3.6 |
| Fwd P/E | 8.4 |
| PEG | 4.1 |
| Analyst target | 4.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 13.8x
- ▸PEG: 2.43
CHH · Why this verdict
Why Choice Hotels International, In (CHH) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictSELL
Overall score4.9/10
ConfidenceHIGH
MacroRISK_OFF
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
6.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROA | 6.6 |
| Gross margin | 10.0 |
| Op margin | 10.0 |
| Net margin | 10.0 |
| Current ratio | 3.8 |
| FCF quality | 4.4 |
| Moat | 6.4 |
| Rule of 40 | 3.0 |
| Piotroski F | 4.4 |
- ▸Strong margins: 35%
- ▸Earnings quality warning: 56% FCF/NI
- ▸Rule of 40: 23 (fail)
Growth
1.7/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 3.4 |
| EPS growth | 0.0 |
Momentum
4.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 5.5 |
| MACD | 0.0 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 3.0 |
| Volume | 4.3 |
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Above 200-MA but MA slope flat
Sentiment
5.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
| Price target | 5.5 |
| erm sentiment | 5.0 |
Insider
4.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 4.5 |
| insider conviction | 2.0 |
| holder change | 6.0 |
| notable moves | 7.0 |
- ▸Modest insider selling — $2,804,826 (0.058% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
5.6/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 6.2 |
| quality rank | 8.8 |
| growth rank | 2.5 |
- ▸Attractive P/E vs peers
- ▸Superior ROE vs peers
Technical
6.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 5.6 |
| support resistance | 6.8 |
| 52w position | 6.1 |
Risk (lower is worse)
5.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 10.0 |
| days to cover | 0.0 |
| volatility | 0.9 |
| put call | 10.0 |
| implied vol | 2.9 |
| max pain risk | 7.0 |
| beta | 8.9 |
| debt equity | 0.0 |
- ▸Short squeeze setup: 35% short, quality 7.5
- ▸High IV: 63%
Catalyst
4.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 3.3 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 0.0 |
| dividend safety | 7.0 |
- ▸Earnings concerns: 2B/2M
- ▸Dividend: 109.0%
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_SELLPassed (6)
- MOMENTUM:4.6>=4.5
- INSIDER:OK
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:57d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- ASYMMETRY:-0.7=NEGATIVE
Warning (2)
- MOMENTUM:4.6<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)
- 8K_CSUITE_CHANGE:5.02 (officer departure/appointment)
Reward-to-Risk
-0.73
Upside
-6.7%
Downside
9.2%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupRANGE_BOUND — RSI 53 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band
EdgeNO_EDGE — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityAGGRESSIVE — MCap $4.8B<$5B
Investment implication
The F-path SELL output reflects an overall score of 1.9 below the 5.6 soft trigger — multiple weakening dimensions accumulated rather than a single hard-floor breach. The strongest dimension ( Quality at 6.5) was not enough to lift the adjusted overall above the threshold. Co-occurring failed gates ( ASYMMETRY:-0.7=NEGATIVE) reinforce the read. Current asymmetry R:R is -0.73 — supplementary context, not the trigger for this path.
The strongest dimensions are Quality at 6.5, Technical at 6.2, and Value at 5.8; the weakest are Growth at 1.7, Catalyst at 4.1, and Momentum at 4.6. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate with 2 warnings, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -0.73 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.