Value
9.7/10data confidence 83%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 10.0 |
| P/S | 9.0 |
| EV/EBITDA | 9.9 |
| Fwd P/E | 9.6 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 7.5x
- ▸PEG: 0.04
- ▸Attractively valued
CGAU · Why this verdict
Why Centerra Gold (CGAU) is rated HOLD
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictHOLD
Overall score6.9/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroRISK_OFF
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
7.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 10.0 |
| ROA | 10.0 |
| Gross margin | 4.8 |
| Op margin | 9.0 |
| Net margin | 10.0 |
| Current ratio | 8.2 |
| FCF quality | 0.0 |
| Moat | 6.8 |
| Piotroski F | 7.8 |
- ▸Excellent ROE: 34%
- ▸Strong margins: 40%
- ▸Earnings quality RED FLAG: 0% FCF/NI
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 7/9
Growth
10.0/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 10.0 |
| EPS growth | 10.0 |
- ▸Strong growth: 62% YoY
Momentum
3.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 3.5 |
| MACD | 0.0 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 2.2 |
| Volume | 8.5 |
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Below 200-MA but MA still rising (+11.1%/30d) — pullback in uptrend, not confirmed weakness
Sentiment
6.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 5.9 |
| Price target | 7.7 |
| erm sentiment | 5.0 |
- ▸Light analyst coverage (2.0) — signal dampened
- ▸Analyst upside: 20%
Insider
5.0/10data confidence 50%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 5.1 |
- ▸No net insider activity — $0 (0.000% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
5.7/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 9.1 |
| quality rank | 7.6 |
| growth rank | 2.6 |
- ▸Attractive P/E vs peers
Technical
7.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 10.0 |
| support resistance | 9.9 |
| 52w position | 4.0 |
| gap | 7.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
3.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| days to cover | 6.5 |
| volatility | 0.0 |
| put call | 3.7 |
| implied vol | 0.0 |
| beta | 4.9 |
| debt equity | 2.9 |
- ▸High IV: 109%
Catalyst
6.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 6.7 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 10.0 |
| dividend safety | 5.2 |
- ▸Strong earnings: 3B/1M
- ▸Dividend: 131.0%
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Maintain position. Not compelling to add more.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_HOLDPassed (6)
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:56d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (2)
- MOMENTUM:3.0<4.5
- ASYMMETRY:0.2<1.5@spot
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
0.21
Upside
+2.4%
Downside
11.1%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupUNKNOWN — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeNO_EDGE — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityAGGRESSIVE — Beta 1.54>1.3, MCap $3.1B<$5B
Investment implication
None of the engine's positive-conviction paths (C-quality, D-momentum) triggered — the F-path HOLD reflects balanced signals. Strongest-cleared gate: INSIDER:OK. Top dim: Growth at 10.0; weakest: Risk (lower is worse) at 3.0. No conviction either direction.
The strongest dimensions are Growth at 10.0, Value at 9.7, and Technical at 7.7; the weakest are Risk (lower is worse) at 3.0, Momentum at 3.0, and Insider at 5.0. The V9 engine flagged 2 failed gates, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 0.21 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.