Capital City Bank Group has a solid earnings beat streak heading into its next print, but a negative risk/reward asymmetry near 52-week highs, a weak composite score, and modest insider selling argue for trimming rather than adding at current levels.
Thesis pillars
- Earnings Beat Streak Catalyst→Stable
- Negative Risk Reward Near Highs→Stable
- Weak Composite Score Despite Quality→Stable
- +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning
Capital City Bank Group (CCBG) Stock Analysis
Range Bound setup · Catalyst-Driven edge
Financial Services · Banks - Regional
Sell if holding. At $48.12, A.R:R is negative (-2.0) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Single-region cliff: 81% exposure to Florida (≥60% threshold). Regional macroeconomic shock = idiosyncratic terminal risk.; Concentration risk — Geographic: Florida (81.0%).
Capital City Bank Group, Inc. is a Tallahassee, Florida-based financial holding company operating Capital City Bank across 62 banking offices in Florida, Georgia, and Alabama, plus 28 mortgage banking offices through Capital City Home Loans in the Southeast. The company held... Read more
Sell if holding. At $48.12, A.R:R is negative (-2.0) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Single-region cliff: 81% exposure to Florida (≥60% threshold). Regional macroeconomic shock = idiosyncratic terminal risk.; Concentration risk — Geographic: Florida (81.0%). Chart setup: RSI 59 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Score 5.0/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 5/9 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio and finsvc regional cliff hard block. Suitability: aggressive.
About Capital City Bank Group
About Capital City Bank Group
Capital City Bank Group held approximately $4.4 billion in assets at December 31, 2025 and generated $286.7 million in revenue, with Banking Services contributing 92.8% and Wealth Management Services the remaining 7.2%. The Bank operates 62 banking offices and 108 ATMs/ITMs across Florida, Georgia, and Alabama plus 28 mortgage-banking offices under Capital City Home Loans, and roughly 81% of consolidated revenue is derived from Florida market areas.
Banking Services revenue comes from net interest income on loans and deposit-related fees, while Wealth Management Services layers on trust administration through Capital City Trust Company and brokerage through Capital City Investments; CCB, the bank subsidiary, accounted for nearly 100% of consolidated assets and net income in 2025. The loan book skews toward real estate, with 85.7% of loans carrying real estate as at least a secondary collateral component and commercial mortgage loans alone comprising 30.2% of the total portfolio, concentrated in Florida and Georgia properties. Dividends and management fees upstreamed from CCB are CCBG's primary source of holding-company income, and those dividend payments depend on the Bank's capitalization, earnings, and compliance with its Common Equity Tier 1 capital conservation buffer. In August 2025, CCBG sold its former insurance subsidiary, Capital City Strategic Wealth, LLC, while CCHL, the mortgage banking unit, became wholly owned effective January 1, 2025.
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CCBG's structure creates a single point of dependency distinct from its geographic loan mix: CCB, the bank subsidiary, generated nearly 100% of consolidated assets and net income in 2025, meaning CCBG's capacity to pay dividends or fund buybacks is gated entirely by CCB's capitalization and its compliance with the Common Equity Tier 1 conservation buffer rather than by any diversified income stream at the parent level. If CCB's capital position or earnings deteriorate — for example, from stress in the Florida and Georgia commercial mortgage book that already makes up 30.2% of total loans — CCBG's ability to return capital to shareholders would tighten before the Bank itself faced a regulatory enforcement action.
See also: Financial Services · Banks - Regional
From Capital City Bank Group's most recent 10-K filing, extracted July 6, 2026.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- HIGHGeographicFlorida81%10-K Item 1: 'The majority of the revenue, approximately 81%, is derived from our Florida market areas'
- HIGHProductBanking Services93%10-K Item 1: 'Revenues from these principal services for the year ended 2025 totaled approximately 92.8% and 7.2% of our total revenue, respectively.'
- HIGHloan_portfolioreal estate-collateralized loans86%10-K Item 1A: 'approximately 85.7% of our loans included real estate as a primary, secondary, or tertiary component of collateral.'
- MEDIUMloan_portfoliocommercial mortgage loans30%10-K Item 1A: 'At December 31, 2025, commercial mortgage loans comprised approximately 30.2% of our total loan portfolio.'
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Rating Breakdown
3 floor-breakers
Growth below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Momentum below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. At $48.12, A.R:R is negative (-2.0) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Single-region cliff: 81% exposure to Florida (≥60% threshold). Regional macroeconomic shock = idiosyncratic terminal risk.; Concentration risk — Geographic: Florida (81.0%). Chart setup: RSI 59 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Prior stop was $44.80. Score 5.0/10, moderate confidence.
Take-profit target: $51.06 (+6.4% upside). Prior stop was $44.80. Stop-loss: $44.80.
Single-region cliff: 81% exposure to Florida (≥60% threshold). Regional macroeconomic shock = idiosyncratic terminal risk.; Concentration risk — Geographic: Florida (81.0%); Concentration risk — Product: Banking Services (92.8%).
Capital City Bank Group trades at a P/E of 14.0 (forward 13.6). TrendMatrix value score: 6.1/10. Verdict: Sell.
8 analysts cover CCBG with a consensus score of 2.4/5. Average price target: $49.
What does Capital City Bank Group do?Capital City Bank Group, Inc. is a Tallahassee, Florida-based financial holding company operating Capital City Bank...
Capital City Bank Group, Inc. is a Tallahassee, Florida-based financial holding company operating Capital City Bank across 62 banking offices in Florida, Georgia, and Alabama, plus 28 mortgage banking offices through Capital City Home Loans in the Southeast. The company held approximately $4.4 billion in assets at year-end 2025, generating $286.7 million in revenue with Banking Services contributing 92.8% and Wealth Management the remainder, and approximately 81% of revenue derived from its Florida market.