Value
6.1/10data confidence 83%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 8.2 |
| P/S | 8.0 |
| Fwd P/E | 8.5 |
| PEG | 2.7 |
| Analyst target | 3.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 13.6x
- ▸PEG: 4.66
CCBG · Why this verdict
Why Capital City Bank (CCBG) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictSELL
Overall score5.1/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
The company has beaten earnings estimates in 3 of its last 4 quarters, a streak the engine flags as an upcoming earnings catalyst with the next report due in 17 days. Bull case | The beat streak should extend to 4 of 5 quarters with average surprise staying positive at the next report. | →Stable |
| CounterA 3-of-4 beat streak against modest consensus estimates for a small regional bank isn't a strong enough sample to reliably predict the next print, especially with average surprise near a middling 4.95%. | ||
The engine's risk/reward asymmetry ratio has turned negative at -1.44 just as the stock trades within 2.8% of its 52-week high and past its analyst target, meaning downside now outweighs upside. Engine gate (failed) | The asymmetry ratio should turn positive (above 0) over the next few months if the setup improves. | →Stable |
| CounterA negative asymmetry reading near a 52-week high combined with an active earnings catalyst in 17 days could reverse quickly on a strong beat, making the current negative reading a lagging rather than leading signal. | ||
Despite strong margins (24%) and a Piotroski F-Score of 8 out of 9, the engine's overall composite score sits at a weak 4.8 out of 10, reflecting drag from valuation and momentum factors. Bear case | The overall score should climb above 5.5 over the next few months if the offsetting weak factors improve. | →Stable |
| CounterA single-quarter dip in the composite score driven by valuation stretch rather than a fundamental quality problem may reverse quickly once the stock digests its recent run. | ||
Insiders sold $278,280 in a single transaction over the past 90 days with no offsetting buys, producing a bearish insider signal. Insider | Insider activity should turn neutral or bullish, with no further net selling, over the next 2 quarters. | →Stable |
| CounterA single, modest insider sale (below $300,000) at a 52-week high is a normal profit-taking event and not necessarily indicative of a broader loss of confidence. | ||
The company has beaten earnings estimates in 3 of its last 4 quarters, a streak the engine flags as an upcoming earnings catalyst with the next report due in 17 days.
→StableBull case
- Expectation
- The beat streak should extend to 4 of 5 quarters with average surprise staying positive at the next report.
CounterA 3-of-4 beat streak against modest consensus estimates for a small regional bank isn't a strong enough sample to reliably predict the next print, especially with average surprise near a middling 4.95%.
The engine's risk/reward asymmetry ratio has turned negative at -1.44 just as the stock trades within 2.8% of its 52-week high and past its analyst target, meaning downside now outweighs upside.
→StableEngine gate (failed)
- Expectation
- The asymmetry ratio should turn positive (above 0) over the next few months if the setup improves.
CounterA negative asymmetry reading near a 52-week high combined with an active earnings catalyst in 17 days could reverse quickly on a strong beat, making the current negative reading a lagging rather than leading signal.
Despite strong margins (24%) and a Piotroski F-Score of 8 out of 9, the engine's overall composite score sits at a weak 4.8 out of 10, reflecting drag from valuation and momentum factors.
→StableBear case
- Expectation
- The overall score should climb above 5.5 over the next few months if the offsetting weak factors improve.
CounterA single-quarter dip in the composite score driven by valuation stretch rather than a fundamental quality problem may reverse quickly once the stock digests its recent run.
Insiders sold $278,280 in a single transaction over the past 90 days with no offsetting buys, producing a bearish insider signal.
→StableInsider
- Expectation
- Insider activity should turn neutral or bullish, with no further net selling, over the next 2 quarters.
CounterA single, modest insider sale (below $300,000) at a 52-week high is a normal profit-taking event and not necessarily indicative of a broader loss of confidence.
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Capital City Bank Group has a solid earnings beat streak heading into its next print, but a negative risk/reward asymmetry near 52-week highs, a weak composite score, and modest insider selling argue for trimming rather than adding at current levels.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
5.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 3.8 |
| ROA | 0.9 |
| Gross margin | 0.0 |
| Op margin | 10.0 |
| Net margin | 10.0 |
| Moat | 4.2 |
| Piotroski F | 8.9 |
- ▸Strong margins: 24%
- ▸No competitive moat
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 8/9
Growth
2.8/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 3.0 |
| EPS growth | 2.6 |
Momentum
4.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 5.0 |
| MACD | 3.9 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 9.0 |
| Volume | 1.5 |
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
5.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
| Price target | 5.3 |
| erm sentiment | 5.0 |
Insider
7.2/10data confidence 50%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 4.5 |
| holder change | 10.0 |
- ▸Modest insider selling — $278,280 (0.033% of mkt cap)
- ▸Institutions accumulating
Peer rank
3.9/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 5.7 |
| quality rank | 3.8 |
| growth rank | 1.0 |
Technical
6.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 4.8 |
| support resistance | 5.8 |
| 52w position | 8.5 |
Risk (lower is worse)
6.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 8.5 |
| days to cover | 5.3 |
| volatility | 4.2 |
| put call | 10.0 |
| implied vol | 1.0 |
| beta | 10.0 |
- ▸High IV: 74%
- ▸Concentration risks: 3 HIGH, 1 MED (10-K Item 1A — sized via position_sizing, validated via buy_confidence)
Catalyst
5.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 3.5 |
| earnings history | 6.7 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 5.0 |
| dividend safety | 5.5 |
- ▸Strong earnings: 3B/1M
- ▸Earnings in 13 days
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_SELLPassed (5)
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (3)
- MOMENTUM:4.1<4.5
- ASYMMETRY:-2.0=NEGATIVE
- FINSVC_REGIONAL_CLIFF:HARD_BLOCK
Warning (1)
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:13d<=14d (soft)
Reward-to-Risk
-2.04
Upside
-13.4%
Downside
6.6%
Sizing output
AVOID
Setup— — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeCatalyst-Driven — Earnings in 13d with 3/4 beat streak
SuitabilityAggressive — MCap $0.8B<$5B
Investment implication
The F-path SELL output reflects an overall score of 5.1 below the 5.6 soft trigger — multiple weakening dimensions accumulated rather than a single hard-floor breach. The strongest dimension ( Insider at 7.2) was not enough to lift the adjusted overall above the threshold. Co-occurring failed gates ( MOMENTUM:4.1<4.5, ASYMMETRY:-2.0=NEGATIVE, FINSVC_REGIONAL_CLIFF:HARD_BLOCK) reinforce the read. Current asymmetry R:R is -2.04 — supplementary context, not the trigger for this path.
The strongest dimensions are Insider at 7.2, Risk (lower is worse) at 6.5, and Technical at 6.4; the weakest are Growth at 2.8, Peer rank at 3.9, and Momentum at 4.1. The V9 engine flagged 3 failed gates with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -2.04 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Earnings Beat Streak Catalyst
Trip ifThe company misses its next reported quarter's earnings estimate by more than 0%.
- P2Negative Risk Reward Near Highs
Trip ifAsymmetry ratio stays below -1.0 through the next reported earnings date.
- P3Weak Composite Score Despite Quality
Trip ifOverall score stays below 5.0 for 2 more consecutive months.
- P4Modest Insider Selling Caution
Trip ifNet insider selling exceeds $500,000 over the next 90 days.