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CARAvis Budget Group, Inc.Sell4.5·$188.11-0.79%
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Avis Budget Group, Inc. (CAR) Stock Analysis

SellVALUE-TRAP 2/5Moderate Confidence

Industrials · Rental & Leasing Services

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $188.11: a dimension score below its floor triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.5/10. Specifically: High short interest: 58%; Below-average business quality.

Avis Budget Group rents vehicles under the Avis, Budget, Zipcar, and Payless brands through approximately 10,000 locations in roughly 180 countries, organized into Americas and International segments. The company generated approximately $11.7 billion in revenues from roughly 38... Read more

$188.11+0.4% A.UpsideScore 4.5/10#13 of 16 Rental & Leasing Services
QualityF-score6 / 9FCF yield2.54%
Stop $174.02Target $187.85(resistance)A.R:R -2.6:1
Analyst target$132.00-29.8%7 analysts
$187.85our TP
$188.11price
$132.00mean
$85

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $188.11: a dimension score below its floor triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.5/10. Specifically: High short interest: 58%; Below-average business quality. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Score 4.5/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 6/8 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, news events none recent, earnings proximity 44d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-06-14

Recent Developments — Avis Budget Group, Inc.

Generated 2026-06-15T18:11:46Z.

TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Wed, Jul 29, 202644d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
No bull case signals
Risks
Concentration risk — Product: Avis brand
Target reached (-38.6% upside)
Quality below floor (2.6 < 4.0)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)
P/E (Fwd)22.7
Mkt Cap$6.6B
EV/EBITDA22.2
Profit Mgn-5.7%
ROE
Rev Growth4.1%
Beta1.87
DividendNone
Rating analysts15

Quality Signals

Piotroski F6/9

Options Flow

P/C0.95neutral
IV68%elevated
Max Pain$50-73.4% vs spot

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHProductAvis brand
    10-K Item 1: 'In 2025, our Avis brand generated total revenues of approximately $6.6 billion.'
  • MEDIUMProductBudget brand
    10-K Item 1: 'In 2025, our Budget brand generated total revenues of approximately $4.3 billion.'

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-05-29Item 5.02LOW
    Tina Goldenberg appointed VP and Chief Accounting Officer effective June 15, 2026, succeeding Cathleen DeGenova (retiring). DeGenova serves through June 14, 2026 and will advise through April 1, 2027 for transition. No disagreement with issuer cited.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers

Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

52w Position
0.0
Support Resistance
0.9
Bollinger
1.7
Gap
5.0

Unprofitable operations — net margin -5.7%. Quality floor flags this regardless of sector context.static

Net Margin
0.0
Operating Margin
0.7
Gross Margin
1.5
Roa
1.9
Current Ratio
3.1
Moat
4.4
Piotroski F
6.7
No competitive moatQuality concerns
GatesA.R:R -2.6=NEGATIVEExecutive change: officer departure/appointmentMomentum 6.1>=5.5Insider activity: OKNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 44d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
74 · Overbought
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $141.20Resistance $191.68

Price Targets

$174
$188
A.Upside-0.1%
A.R:R-2.6:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-38.6% upside)
! Quality below floor (2.6 < 4.0)
! Value-trap signals (2/5): High leverage (D/E 2.3), Material insider selling (21 sells, 0.02% of cap)

Earnings

B
B
M
M
2/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-29 (44d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is CAR stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $188.11: a dimension score below its floor triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.5/10. Specifically: High short interest: 58%; Below-average business quality. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Prior stop was $174.02. Score 4.5/10, moderate confidence.

What is the CAR stock price target?

Take-profit target: $187.85 (+0.4% upside). Prior stop was $174.02. Stop-loss: $174.02.

What are the risks of investing in CAR?

Concentration risk — Product: Avis brand; Target reached (-38.6% upside); Quality below floor (2.6 < 4.0).

Is CAR overvalued or undervalued?

Avis Budget Group, Inc. trades at a P/E of N/A (forward 22.7). TrendMatrix value score: 5.7/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about CAR?

15 analysts cover CAR with a consensus score of 2.4/5. Average price target: $132.

What does Avis Budget Group, Inc. do?Avis Budget Group rents vehicles under the Avis, Budget, Zipcar, and Payless brands through approximately 10,000...

Avis Budget Group rents vehicles under the Avis, Budget, Zipcar, and Payless brands through approximately 10,000 locations in roughly 180 countries, organized into Americas and International segments. The company generated approximately $11.7 billion in revenues from roughly 38 million rental transactions in 2025, with a global fleet averaging 684,000 vehicles.

Related stocks: AER (AerCap Holdings N.V.) · WLFC (Willis Lease Finance Corporatio) · PRG (PROG Holdings, Inc.) · HRI (Herc Holdings Inc.) · GATX (GATX Corporation)
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