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WLFCWillis Lease Finance CorporatioBuy Wait6.5·$41.86
Buy WaitModerate Confidence
Investment thesis

Willis Lease Finance offers attractive valuation and strong historical growth, but the stock has essentially reached its analyst price target with only 0.7% upside remaining, making the current entry point unfavorable from a risk-reward perspective.

Thesis pillars

  • Upside Exhaustion Target Reached↑Improving
  • Valuation Attractive Multiples→Stable
  • Revenue Earnings Growth Trajectory→Stable
  • +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning

Pillars as of Jul 3, 2026, based on the 10-K filed Mar 10, 2026

Full reasoning →

Open full analysis

Willis Lease Finance Corporatio (WLFC) Stock Analysis

Recovery setup · Inst Constrain edge

Buy WaitVALUE-TRAP 2/5ValueGrowthModerate Confidence

Industrials · Rental & Leasing Services

Earnings in 3 days (2026-11-03). Expect elevated volatility around the report — consider waiting for post-earnings price action before new entries.

Wait for pullback to $39.86. Insider activity concern — blocks BUY_NOW at $41.86. Engine's entry $39.86 (Atr Pullback Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Concentration risk — Product: Leasing and Related Operations segment (94.9%); Concentration risk — Geographic: leased and operated internationally (64.8%).

Willis Lease Finance Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, operates as a lessor and servicer of commercial aircraft and aircraft engines worldwide. It operates in two segments, Leasing and Related Operations, and Spare Parts Sales. The company engages in acquiring and... Read more

$41.86+43.2% A.UpsideScore 6.5/10#4 of 18 Rental & Leasing Services
QualityF-score8 / 9FCF yield56.31%
IncomeYield1.27%Payout12.16%sustainable
Entry $39.86(Atr Pullback Sticky)Stop $37.07Target $59.92(analyst − 15%)A.R:R 3.3:1
Analyst consensus$70.50+68.4%2 analysts
$59.92our TP
$41.86price
$70.50mean
$71

Wait for pullback to $39.86. Insider activity concern — blocks BUY_NOW at $41.86. Engine's entry $39.86 (Atr Pullback Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Concentration risk — Product: Leasing and Related Operations segment (94.9%); Concentration risk — Geographic: leased and operated internationally (64.8%). Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 54. Earnings in 3 days. Wait until post-earnings. Score 6.5/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 5/8 gates (positive momentum, favorable risk/reward ratio, no SEC red flags, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on clean insider activity and earnings proximity 3d<=7d. Suitability: speculative.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-10-30
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Tue, Nov 3, 20263d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
V7 quality resilience bonus: +0.2 (Q=7.3 in RISK_OFF)
High-quality business
Attractive valuation
Risks
Concentration risk — Product: Leasing and Related Operations segment (94.9%)
Concentration risk — Geographic: leased and operated internationally (64.8%)
Sector modifier (Industrials): -0.7

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)10.5
P/E (Fwd)6.1
Mkt Cap$1.0B
EV/EBITDA8.3
Profit Mgn12.2%
ROE12.6%
Rev Growth0.4%
Beta0.73
Dividend1.27%
Rating analysts8

Quality Signals

Piotroski F8/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C1.00neutral
IV70%elevated

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHProductLeasing and Related Operations segment95%
    10-K Item 1: 'Total revenues from our Leasing and Related Operations reportable segment was 94.9% and 95.4% of the respective total consolidated revenue for the years ended December 31, 2025 and 2024, respectively.'
  • HIGHGeographicleased and operated internationally65%
    10-K Item 1: 'approximately 64.8% of our on-lease engines, aircraft, and related equipment (all of which we sometimes refer to as "equipment") by net book value are leased and operated internationally'

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy

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About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.

Not investment advice. TrendMatrix is not a registered investment adviser. Our content is for informational and educational purposes only. Consult your own licensed investment adviser, broker, or tax professional before making any investment decision.

Conflicts and positions. People who build TrendMatrix, or entities they control, may hold positions, long or short, in securities it covers, and may trade them at any time. Positions are not disclosed individually. Verdicts are generated by an automated model applied by the same rules to every covered stock, and are not adjusted for any position held by the people who build TrendMatrix. We do not accept payment from issuers for coverage.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker·1 ceiling hit

Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

52w Position
0.3
Bollinger
2.8
Support Resistance
5.9
GatesINSIDER 1.23%=EXTREMEEARNINGS PROXIMITY 3d<=7dDeath cross (50MA < 200MA)Momentum 6.3>=5.5A.R:R 3.3 ≥ 1.5No SEC red flagsSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARRecoverySuitability: Speculative
RSI
54 · Neutral
↑ 20D MA↓ 50D MA↓ 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $36.39Resistance $49.81

Price Targets

$37
$40
$60
A.Upside+43.2%
A.R:R3.3:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! Earnings in 3 days - binary event risk
! Insider activity: 1.23%=extreme
! EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:3d<=7d

Earnings

B
B
B
M
3/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-11-03 (3d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is WLFC stock a buy right now?

Wait for pullback to $39.86. Insider activity concern — blocks BUY_NOW at $41.86. Engine's entry $39.86 (Atr Pullback Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Concentration risk — Product: Leasing and Related Operations segment (94.9%); Concentration risk — Geographic: leased and operated internationally (64.8%). Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 54. Earnings in 3 days. Wait until post-earnings. Target $59.92 (+43.1%), stop $37.07 (−12.9%), A.R:R 3.3:1. Score 6.5/10, moderate confidence.

What is the WLFC stock price target?

Take-profit target: $59.92 (+43.2% upside). Target $59.92 (+43.1%), stop $37.07 (−12.9%), A.R:R 3.3:1. Stop-loss: $37.07.

What are the risks of investing in WLFC?

Concentration risk — Product: Leasing and Related Operations segment (94.9%); Concentration risk — Geographic: leased and operated internationally (64.8%); Sector modifier (Industrials): -0.7.

Is WLFC overvalued or undervalued?

Willis Lease Finance Corporatio trades at a P/E of 10.5 (forward 6.1). TrendMatrix value score: 9.3/10. Verdict: Buy (Wait for Entry).

What do analysts say about WLFC?

8 analysts cover WLFC with a consensus score of 4.1/5. Average price target: $71.

What does Willis Lease Finance Corporatio do?Willis Lease Finance Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, operates as a lessor and servicer of commercial...

Willis Lease Finance Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, operates as a lessor and servicer of commercial aircraft and aircraft engines worldwide. It operates in two segments, Leasing and Related Operations, and Spare Parts Sales. The company engages in acquiring and leasing commercial aircraft, aircraft engines, and related aircraft equipment, as well as the purchase and resale of commercial aircraft engines and other aircraft equipment, and service and maintenance related businesses. It also purchases and resells after-market engine parts, whole engines, engine modules, and portable aircraft components. The company serves commercial aircraft operators, as well as maintenance, repair, and overhaul organizations. Willis Lease Finance Corporation was incorporated in 1985 and is headquartered in Coconut Creek, Florida.

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