Value
5.8/10data confidence 83%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/S | 10.0 |
| EV/EBITDA | 0.0 |
| Fwd P/E | 5.8 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
| Analyst target | 3.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 22.3x
- ▸PEG: 0.16
CAR · Why this verdict
Why Avis Budget Group (CAR) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictSELL
Overall score4.5/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
2.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROA | 1.9 |
| Gross margin | 1.5 |
| Op margin | 0.7 |
| Net margin | 0.0 |
| Current ratio | 3.1 |
| Moat | 4.4 |
| Piotroski F | 6.7 |
- ▸No competitive moat
- ▸Quality concerns
Growth
6.8/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 3.5 |
| EPS growth | 10.0 |
Momentum
5.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 4.0 |
| MACD | 10.0 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 5.5 |
| Volume | 0.0 |
- ▸Overbought (RSI 79)
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Above 200-MA but MA slope flat/negative + RSI 79 (late-cycle distribution risk)
Sentiment
4.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 6.6 |
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
| Price target | 1.5 |
- ▸LLM news sentiment: +0.33 (n=5)
- ▸Below analyst target
Insider
3.0/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 2.0 |
| insider conviction | 2.0 |
| holder change | 5.1 |
- ▸Heavy insider selling — $3,506,576,724 (55.425% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
4.5/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 8.8 |
| quality rank | 0.6 |
| growth rank | 3.8 |
Technical
2.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 2.1 |
| support resistance | 2.1 |
| 52w position | 0.0 |
| gap | 5.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
2.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 0.0 |
| days to cover | 9.7 |
| volatility | 0.0 |
| put call | 3.1 |
| implied vol | 0.0 |
| beta | 3.8 |
- ▸High short interest: 60%
- ▸Elevated put/call: 1.53
- ▸High IV: 80%
Catalyst
4.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 3.5 |
| earnings history | 3.3 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 0.0 |
| news activity | 8.0 |
- ▸Earnings concerns: 2B/2M
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Quality below minimum threshold.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L1:HARD_BLOCKPassed (8)
- MOMENTUM:5.9>=5.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_BOOST:ANALYST:0.60
- NEWS_BOOST:ANALYST_CLUSTER(4)
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:49d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- ASYMMETRY:-2.5=NEGATIVE
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
-2.53
Upside
-37.9%
Downside
15.0%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupUNKNOWN — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeNO_EDGE — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityAGGRESSIVE — Beta 1.87>1.3
Investment implication
The L1 gate blocked the positive-verdict path: a hard-floor threshold was breached, so dimensional pillars — including Growth at 6.8 could not lift the engine output above the verdict floor. Failed gate signal: ASYMMETRY:-2.5=NEGATIVE.
The strongest dimensions are Growth at 6.8, Momentum at 5.9, and Value at 5.8; the weakest are Technical at 2.3, Quality at 2.6, and Risk (lower is worse) at 2.8. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -2.53 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.