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CAECAE Inc.Sell5.4·$25.39+0.36%
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CAE Inc. (CAE) Stock Analysis

Recovery setup

SellModerate Confidence

Industrials · Aerospace & Defense

Sell if holding. At $25.39, A.R:R 0.9:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Negative momentum; Thin upside margin: 9.0%.

CAE Inc., together with its subsidiaries, provides training, simulation, and critical operation solutions in Canada, the United States, the United Kingdom, Europe, Asia, the Oceania, Africa, and rest of the Americas. The company operates through two segments, Civil Aviation; and... Read more

$25.39+9.0% A.UpsideScore 5.4/10#25 of 47 Aerospace & Defense
QualityF-score7 / 9FCF yield4.79%
Stop $23.86Target $27.72(analyst − 15%)A.R:R 0.9:1
Analyst target$32.61+28.4%2 analysts
$27.72our TP
$25.39price
$32.61mean
$33

Sell if holding. At $25.39, A.R:R 0.9:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Negative momentum; Thin upside margin: 9.0%. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 66. Score 5.4/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 6/9 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 57d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio and death cross (50MA < 200MA). Suitability: moderate.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-06-15
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Tue, Aug 11, 202657d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
No bull case signals
Risks
Thin upside margin: 9.0%
Negative momentum
Below 200-MA, MA slope -1.3%/30d (confirmed downtrend)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)36.1
P/E (Fwd)23.3
Mkt Cap$8.1B
EV/EBITDA11.9
Profit Mgn6.4%
ROE6.2%
Rev Growth4.0%
Beta1.04
DividendNone
Rating analysts18

Quality Signals

Piotroski F7/9

Options Flow

P/C0.27bullish
IV95%elevated
Max Pain$40+57.5% vs spot

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Growth Rank
0.4
Quality Rank
4.2
Value Rank
7.5

Momentum below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Volume
0.0
Obv
1.2
Rsi
3.4
Ma Position
4.0
Macd
7.1
Volume distribution (falling OBV)Below 200-MA, MA slope -1.3%/30d — confirmed downtrend
GatesMomentum 3.1<4.5A.R:R 0.9 < 1.5@spotDeath cross (50MA < 200MA)Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 57d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARRecoverySuitability: Moderate
RSI
66 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $22.76Resistance $27.16

Price Targets

$24
$28
A.Upside+9.2%
A.R:R0.9:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! momentum at 3.1 (below the engine's 4.5 threshold)
! asymmetry at 0.9 (below the engine's 1.5 threshold)@spot
! Death cross — 50-day MA below 200-day MA

Earnings

B
B
M
M
2/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-08-11 (57d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is CAE stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. At $25.39, A.R:R 0.9:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Negative momentum; Thin upside margin: 9.0%. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 66. Prior stop was $23.86. Score 5.4/10, moderate confidence.

What is the CAE stock price target?

Take-profit target: $27.72 (+9.0% upside). Prior stop was $23.86. Stop-loss: $23.86.

What are the risks of investing in CAE?

Thin upside margin: 9.0%; Negative momentum; Below 200-MA, MA slope -1.3%/30d (confirmed downtrend).

Is CAE overvalued or undervalued?

CAE Inc. trades at a P/E of 36.1 (forward 23.3). TrendMatrix value score: 7.0/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about CAE?

18 analysts cover CAE with a consensus score of 3.7/5. Average price target: $33.

What does CAE Inc. do?CAE Inc., together with its subsidiaries, provides training, simulation, and critical operation solutions in Canada,...

CAE Inc., together with its subsidiaries, provides training, simulation, and critical operation solutions in Canada, the United States, the United Kingdom, Europe, Asia, the Oceania, Africa, and rest of the Americas. The company operates through two segments, Civil Aviation; and Defense and Security. The Civil Aviation segment offers training solutions for flight, cabin, maintenance, ground personnel, and air traffic controllers in commercial, business, and helicopter aviation; a range of flight simulation training devices; and ab initio pilot training and crew sourcing services, as well as airline operations digital solutions. The Defense and Security segment operates as a training and simulation provider that delivers scalable and platform-independent solutions to enable and enhance force readiness and security for defense forces, original equipment manufacturers (OEMs), government agencies, and public safety organizations. The company was formerly known as CAE Industries Ltd. and changed its name to CAE Inc. in 1993. CAE Inc. was incorporated in 1947 and is headquartered in Saint-Laurent, Canada.

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