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BZHBeazer Homes USA, Inc.Sell4.1·$31.51+14.92%
SellModerate Confidence
Investment thesis

BZH faces a sharp revenue decline and quality-floor breach that leave the modeled risk/reward deeply negative, even as near-term technicals show unusual resilience.

Thesis pillars

  • Quality Floor And Declining RevenueStable
  • Material Insider SellingStable
  • Target Reached Large Negative UpsideStable
  • +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning

Full reasoning →

Open full analysis

Beazer Homes USA, Inc. (BZH) Stock Analysis

Breakout setup

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5ValueShortModerate Confidence

Consumer Cyclical · Residential Construction

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $31.51: Quality below floor (1.1 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.1/10. Specifically: Below-average business quality.

Homes is a nationally recognized homebuilder committed to building homes and communities designed with the intention of inspiring sustainable and healthier living. With personalized options and expert guidance, we empower homebuyers with competitive mortgage choices and energy... Read more

$31.51-0.6% A.UpsideScore 4.1/10#17 of 19 Residential Construction
QualityF-score2 / 9FCF yield-9.35%
Stop $29.28Target $31.29(resistance)A.R:R -2.2:1
Analyst target$25.00-20.7%3 analysts
$31.29our TP
$31.51price
$25.00mean
$22

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $31.51: Quality below floor (1.1 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.1/10. Specifically: Below-average business quality. Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 69, MACD bullish. Score 4.1/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 6/7 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, earnings proximity 28d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-07-08

Recent Developments — Beazer Homes USA, Inc.

Generated 2026-07-08T17:54:56Z.

TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Tue, Aug 4, 202628d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
No bull case signals
Risks
Target reached (-32.5% upside)
Quality below floor (1.1 < 4.0)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)
P/E (Fwd)16.3
Mkt Cap$758M
EV/EBITDA377.2
Profit Mgn-0.2%
ROE-0.3%
Rev Growth-27.5%
Beta2.18
DividendNone
Rating analysts7

Quality Signals

Piotroski F2/9

Options Flow

P/C0.35bullish
IV59%elevated

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

4 floor-breakers

Revenue shrinking — -27.5% YoY. Growth thesis broken unless recovery story develops.static

Revenue Growth
0.0
Declining revenue: -28%
Low model confidence on this dimension (33%).

Cyclical trough — margins compressed or negative. Profitability typically recovers with the cycle, but floor fires on current data.static

Roe
0.0
Roa
0.0
Gross Margin
0.0
Operating Margin
0.0
Net Margin
0.0
Fcf Quality
0.0
Piotroski F
2.2
Moat
2.5
Current Ratio
5.0
Cash-burning: FCF -3% of revenueNo competitive moatWeak Piotroski F-Score: 2/9Quality concerns

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Quality Rank
0.0
Growth Rank
0.0
Value Rank
8.4

Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Bollinger
0.0
Support Resistance
0.7
Gap
3.0
52w Position
9.7
Extreme gap up (14.2%) - may pull back
GatesA.R:R -2.2=NEGATIVEMomentum 8.4>=5.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsEARNINGS PROXIMITY 28d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARBreakoutSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
69 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $25.86Resistance $31.93

Price Targets

$29
$31
A.Upside-0.7%
A.R:R-2.2:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-32.5% upside)
! Quality below floor (1.1 < 4.0)
! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside

Earnings

B
B
M
M
2/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-08-04 (28d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is BZH stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $31.51: Quality below floor (1.1 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.1/10. Specifically: Below-average business quality. Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 69, MACD bullish. Prior stop was $29.28. Score 4.1/10, moderate confidence.

What is the BZH stock price target?

Take-profit target: $31.29 (-0.6% upside). Prior stop was $29.28. Stop-loss: $29.28.

What are the risks of investing in BZH?

Target reached (-32.5% upside); Quality below floor (1.1 < 4.0).

Is BZH overvalued or undervalued?

Beazer Homes USA, Inc. trades at a P/E of N/A (forward 16.3). TrendMatrix value score: 6.9/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about BZH?

7 analysts cover BZH with a consensus score of 4.0/5. Average price target: $25.

What does Beazer Homes USA, Inc. do?Homes is a nationally recognized homebuilder committed to building homes and communities designed with the intention of...

Homes is a nationally recognized homebuilder committed to building homes and communities designed with the intention of inspiring sustainable and healthier living. With personalized options and expert guidance, we empower homebuyers with competitive mortgage choices and energy saving features that make homeownership more attainable.

Related stocks: LEGH (Legacy Housing Corporation) · CVCO (Cavco Industries, Inc.) · IBP (Installed Building Products, In) · SKY (Champion Homes, Inc.) · GRBK (Green Brick Partners, Inc.)
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