Value
6.9/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/S | 10.0 |
| Fwd P/E | 7.6 |
| PEG | 4.0 |
| Analyst target | 3.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 16.3x
- ▸PEG: 2.46
BZH · Why this verdict
Why Beazer Homes USA (BZH) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictSELL
Overall score4.1/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
The homebuilder's quality score of 1.1 sits far below the engine's 4.0 floor, compounded by a 28% year-over-year revenue decline and a weak Piotroski F-Score of 2 out of 9. Bear case | Revenue growth should turn positive and quality score should recover above 4.0 over the next 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterHomebuilders are highly cyclical, and a sharp revenue decline can reflect an industry-wide housing downturn rather than a company-specific quality problem, with potential for a rebound if rates ease. | ||
The engine flags material insider selling as one of two value-trap signals, with five insider sell transactions recorded, alongside margin compression to a 2.6% operating margin. Bear case | Insider selling should slow and operating margin should stabilize or improve over the next several quarters. | →Stable |
| CounterFive sell transactions at only 0.04% of market cap is a very small dollar amount and may reflect routine diversification rather than a negative signal. | ||
The stock has already reached its prior price target, with modeled upside now deeply negative at -24.3% versus 9.6% downside to stop-loss, a starkly unfavorable risk/reward. Warnings | A significant price decline or major upward target revision should be needed to restore a positive risk/reward over the next 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterA -24.3% gap to target is unusually large and could reflect a stale or overly conservative analyst target given still-positive momentum and volume accumulation. | ||
Despite weak fundamentals, the stock is showing rising volume accumulation while trading above its 200-day moving average, a constructive near-term technical signal. Momentum breakdown | Momentum score should remain above 5.0 and OBV should keep accumulating over the next several months. | →Stable |
| CounterTechnical strength that is disconnected from a 28% revenue decline and a quality-floor breach is at high risk of reversing sharply once fundamentals reassert themselves. | ||
The homebuilder's quality score of 1.1 sits far below the engine's 4.0 floor, compounded by a 28% year-over-year revenue decline and a weak Piotroski F-Score of 2 out of 9.
→StableBear case
- Expectation
- Revenue growth should turn positive and quality score should recover above 4.0 over the next 12 months.
CounterHomebuilders are highly cyclical, and a sharp revenue decline can reflect an industry-wide housing downturn rather than a company-specific quality problem, with potential for a rebound if rates ease.
The engine flags material insider selling as one of two value-trap signals, with five insider sell transactions recorded, alongside margin compression to a 2.6% operating margin.
→StableBear case
- Expectation
- Insider selling should slow and operating margin should stabilize or improve over the next several quarters.
CounterFive sell transactions at only 0.04% of market cap is a very small dollar amount and may reflect routine diversification rather than a negative signal.
The stock has already reached its prior price target, with modeled upside now deeply negative at -24.3% versus 9.6% downside to stop-loss, a starkly unfavorable risk/reward.
→StableWarnings
- Expectation
- A significant price decline or major upward target revision should be needed to restore a positive risk/reward over the next 12 months.
CounterA -24.3% gap to target is unusually large and could reflect a stale or overly conservative analyst target given still-positive momentum and volume accumulation.
Despite weak fundamentals, the stock is showing rising volume accumulation while trading above its 200-day moving average, a constructive near-term technical signal.
→StableMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- Momentum score should remain above 5.0 and OBV should keep accumulating over the next several months.
CounterTechnical strength that is disconnected from a 28% revenue decline and a quality-floor breach is at high risk of reversing sharply once fundamentals reassert themselves.
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
BZH faces a sharp revenue decline and quality-floor breach that leave the modeled risk/reward deeply negative, even as near-term technicals show unusual resilience.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
1.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 0.0 |
| ROA | 0.0 |
| Gross margin | 0.0 |
| Op margin | 0.0 |
| Net margin | 0.0 |
| Current ratio | 5.0 |
| FCF quality | 0.0 |
| Moat | 2.5 |
| Piotroski F | 2.2 |
- ▸Cash-burning: FCF -3% of revenue
- ▸No competitive moat
- ▸Weak Piotroski F-Score: 2/9
- ▸Quality concerns
Growth
0.0/10data confidence 33%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 0.0 |
- ▸Declining revenue: -28%
Momentum
8.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 5.0 |
| MACD | 7.5 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 9.0 |
| Volume | 10.0 |
| vol acceleration | 9.1 |
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
- ▸Volume surge (2.6x avg) on up move
Sentiment
4.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 6.7 |
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
| Price target | 2.3 |
- ▸LLM news sentiment: +0.33 (n=10)
- ▸Below analyst target
Insider
7.5/10data confidence 50%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 10.0 |
- ▸No net insider activity — $0 (0.000% of mkt cap)
- ▸Institutions accumulating
Peer rank
2.5/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 8.4 |
| quality rank | 0.0 |
| growth rank | 0.0 |
Technical
3.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 0.0 |
| support resistance | 1.0 |
| 52w position | 9.6 |
| gap | 3.0 |
- ▸Extreme gap up (14.2%) - may pull back
Risk (lower is worse)
4.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 5.3 |
| days to cover | 6.0 |
| volatility | 1.4 |
| put call | 10.0 |
| implied vol | 3.5 |
| max pain risk | 3.0 |
| beta | 2.7 |
| debt equity | 4.9 |
- ▸Above max pain $15
Catalyst
4.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 3.3 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 1.5 |
| news activity | 8.0 |
- ▸Earnings concerns: 2B/2M
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Quality below minimum threshold.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L1:HARD_BLOCKPassed (6)
- MOMENTUM:8.4>=5.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:28d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- ASYMMETRY:-2.1=NEGATIVE
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
-2.14
Upside
-32.2%
Downside
15.0%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupBreakout — Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 69, MACD bullish
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityAggressive — Beta 2.18>1.3, MCap $0.8B<$5B
Investment implication
The L1 gate blocked the positive-verdict path: a hard-floor threshold was breached, so dimensional pillars — including Momentum at 8.4 could not lift the engine output above the verdict floor. Failed gate signal: ASYMMETRY:-2.1=NEGATIVE.
The strongest dimensions are Momentum at 8.4, Insider at 7.5, and Value at 6.9; the weakest are Growth at 0.0, Quality at 1.1, and Peer rank at 2.5. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -2.14 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Quality Floor And Declining Revenue
Trip ifRevenue growth rises above 0% YoY for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P2Target Reached Large Negative Upside
Trip ifModeled upside rises above -10% within the next 2 quarters.
- P3Rising Volume Above 200ma
Trip ifStock price falls below its 200-day moving average by more than 5%.
- P4Material Insider Selling
Trip ifNet insider selling exceeds $1 million over any rolling 90-day period.