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BWXTBWX Technologies, Inc.Buy Wait5.5·$137.93
Buy WaitHigh Confidence
Investment thesis

The company has beaten earnings estimates in all four of the last four quarters by an average of roughly 21% and is growing revenue at 26% year-over-year, but a forward price-to-earnings multiple of 37.3 times and a risk/reward ratio of roughly 0.9-to-1 mean the story is compelling in quality and execution but not yet compelling in price.

Thesis pillars

  • Perfect Earnings Beat Streak→Stable
  • Strong Revenue Growth Profile→Stable
  • Rich Valuation Limits Near Term Return→Stable
  • +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning

Pillars as of Jul 3, 2026, based on the 10-K filed Feb 23, 2026

Full reasoning →

Open full analysis

BWX Technologies, Inc. (BWXT) Stock Analysis

Recovery setup

Buy WaitVALUE-TRAP 1/5GrowthHigh Confidence

Industrials · Aerospace & Defense

Earnings in 3 days (2026-11-02). Expect elevated volatility around the report — consider waiting for post-earnings price action before new entries.

Wait for pullback to $133.08. BUY gates pass at $137.93, but v7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=5.3) and sector modifier (Industrials): -0.7 argue for a more patient entry. Engine's entry $133.08 (Atr Pullback Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum.

BWX Technologies manufactures precision naval nuclear components, reactor fuel, and medical radioisotopes across two segments: Government Operations (DOE/NNSA Naval Nuclear Propulsion Program) and Commercial Operations (nuclear power utilities, principally Canada, and life... Read more

$137.93+36.7% A.UpsideScore 5.5/10#44 of 65 Aerospace & Defense
QualityF-score7 / 9FCF yield1.15%
IncomeYield0.79%(5y avg 0.91%)Payout26.94%sustainable
Entry $133.08(Atr Pullback Sticky)Stop $123.76Target $188.50(analyst − 10%)A.R:R 3.4:1
Analyst consensus$209.44+51.8%16 analysts
$188.50our TP
$137.93price
$209.44mean
$290

Wait for pullback to $133.08. BUY gates pass at $137.93, but v7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=5.3) and sector modifier (Industrials): -0.7 argue for a more patient entry. Engine's entry $133.08 (Atr Pullback Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 41. Earnings in 3 days. Wait until post-earnings. Score 5.5/10, high confidence.

Passes 7/9 gates (positive momentum, favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on earnings proximity 3d<=7d. Suitability: speculative.

10-K grounded · weekly refresh

About BWX Technologies, Inc.

About BWX Technologies, Inc.

BWX Technologies entered 2026 with $7.261 billion in total backlog — $5.541 billion (76%) in Government Operations and $1.720 billion (24%) in Commercial Operations — and expects to recognize approximately 40% of that revenue by year-end 2026. U.S. Government contracts represented approximately 68% of 2025 total consolidated revenues. The company delivers precision naval nuclear components, reactor fuel, medical radioisotopes, and nuclear services from manufacturing facilities across the U.S. and Canada.

Government Operations revenue flows primarily from long-term fixed-price incentive fee contracts with the DOE/NNSA Naval Nuclear Propulsion Program, under which BWX Technologies has supplied nuclear components since the 1950s. Supplementary revenue comes from joint-venture management and operation of DOE nuclear facilities and environmental remediation sites, with partners including Huntington Ingalls Industries, Amentum Environment & Energy, Bechtel National, and Fluor Federal Services. Commercial Operations revenue depends on the cyclical timing of nuclear power plant maintenance outages and life-extension refurbishments, principally in Canada, where the majority of Ontario plants are expected to require refurbishment. The January 2025 acquisition of Aerojet Ordnance Tennessee from L3Harris expanded advanced-materials capabilities, and the May 2025 acquisition of Kinectrics added nuclear lifecycle services and medical isotope production. In commercial nuclear components, primary competitors include Framatome, Doosan Heavy Industries, Westinghouse Electric Corporation, and Cameco Corporation.

Show full overview

BWXT Technologies' revenues are materially dependent on Congressional appropriations and DOE funding levels. The 10-K discloses that budget reductions or a government shutdown could produce program delays, production halts, employee furloughs, and non-payment. Counterbalancing this risk, the U.S. Navy's March 2024 30-year shipbuilding plan — with all three procurement profiles indicating sustained or increased nuclear submarine and aircraft carrier procurement — provides long-horizon visibility that supports the company's expectation that naval nuclear component orders will remain a significant portion of backlog for the foreseeable future.

See also: Industrials · Aerospace & Defense

From BWX Technologies, Inc.'s most recent 10-K filing, extracted June 9, 2026.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-10-30
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Mon, Nov 2, 20263d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Analyst upside: 37%
Risks
V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=5.3)
Sector modifier (Industrials): -0.7
Leverage penalty (D/E 1.5): -1.0

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)35.7
P/E (Fwd)26.3
Mkt Cap$12.6B
EV/EBITDA29.5
Profit Mgn10.1%
ROE28.3%
Rev Growth18.0%
Beta0.74
Dividend0.79%
Rating analysts25

Quality Signals

Piotroski F7/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C2.04bearish
IV59%elevated

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy

Show full disclosure ▾

About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.

Not investment advice. TrendMatrix is not a registered investment adviser. Our content is for informational and educational purposes only. Consult your own licensed investment adviser, broker, or tax professional before making any investment decision.

Conflicts and positions. People who build TrendMatrix, or entities they control, may hold positions, long or short, in securities it covers, and may trade them at any time. Positions are not disclosed individually. Verdicts are generated by an automated model applied by the same rules to every covered stock, and are not adjusted for any position held by the people who build TrendMatrix. We do not accept payment from issuers for coverage.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker

Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

52w Position
1.4
Support Resistance
3.8
Bollinger
4.2
GatesEARNINGS PROXIMITY 3d<=7dDeath cross (50MA < 200MA)Momentum 6.0>=5.5A.R:R 3.4 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARRecoverySuitability: Speculative
RSI
41 · Neutral
↑ 20D MA↓ 50D MA↓ 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $123.05Resistance $147.00

Price Targets

$124
$133
$189
A.Upside+36.7%
A.R:R3.4:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! Earnings in 3 days - binary event risk
! EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:3d<=7d

Earnings

B
B
B
B
4/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-11-02 (3d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is BWXT stock a buy right now?

Wait for pullback to $133.08. BUY gates pass at $137.93, but v7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=5.3) and sector modifier (Industrials): -0.7 argue for a more patient entry. Engine's entry $133.08 (Atr Pullback Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 41. Earnings in 3 days. Wait until post-earnings. Target $188.50 (+36.7%), stop $123.76 (−11.4%), A.R:R 3.4:1. Score 5.5/10, high confidence.

What is the BWXT stock price target?

Take-profit target: $188.50 (+36.7% upside). Target $188.50 (+36.7%), stop $123.76 (−11.4%), A.R:R 3.4:1. Stop-loss: $123.76.

What are the risks of investing in BWXT?

V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=5.3); Sector modifier (Industrials): -0.7; Leverage penalty (D/E 1.5): -1.0.

Is BWXT overvalued or undervalued?

BWX Technologies, Inc. trades at a P/E of 35.7 (forward 26.3). TrendMatrix value score: 5.2/10. Verdict: Buy (Wait for Entry).

What do analysts say about BWXT?

25 analysts cover BWXT with a consensus score of 4.1/5. Average price target: $209.

What does BWX Technologies, Inc. do?BWX Technologies manufactures precision naval nuclear components, reactor fuel, and medical radioisotopes across two...

BWX Technologies manufactures precision naval nuclear components, reactor fuel, and medical radioisotopes across two segments: Government Operations (DOE/NNSA Naval Nuclear Propulsion Program) and Commercial Operations (nuclear power utilities, principally Canada, and life sciences). U.S. Government contracts comprised approximately 68% of 2025 consolidated revenues, with $7.261 billion in backlog at year-end 2025.

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