Value
5.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 3.6 |
| P/S | 7.9 |
| EV/EBITDA | 0.0 |
| Fwd P/E | 4.7 |
| PEG | 4.6 |
| Analyst target | 9.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 26.3x
- ▸PEG: 1.87
BWXT · Why this verdict
Why BWX Technologies (BWXT) is rated BUY WAIT
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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VerdictBUY WAIT
Overall score5.5/10
ConfidenceHIGH
MacroRISK_OFF
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
The company has beaten earnings estimates in all four of the last four quarters by an average of roughly 21% and is growing revenue at 26% year-over-year, but a forward price-to-earnings multiple of 37.3 times and a risk/reward ratio of roughly 0.9-to-1 mean the story is compelling in quality and execution but not yet compelling in price.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
The company has beaten consensus earnings estimates in all four of the last four quarters, with an average positive surprise of roughly 21% — a pattern of consistently delivering ahead of expectations that, if sustained, could drive upward revisions to analyst estimates and support continued multiple expansion. Catalyst breakdown | The earnings beat streak extends to 5 or more consecutive quarters with average surprise remaining above 10%, prompting at least two rounds of upward consensus estimate revisions. | →Stable |
| CounterA four-quarter beat streak can reflect consistently conservative guidance as much as operational outperformance; if management sets more precise guidance in coming periods, the surprise margin will compress even if absolute results remain strong. | ||
Revenue is expanding at 26% year-over-year with a growth score among the stronger readings in the overall profile, suggesting the business is capturing demand at a pace that could justify a premium multiple if sustained. Growth breakdown | Revenue growth sustains above 15% year-over-year for at least 3 consecutive quarters, confirming this is durable expansion rather than a single-period spike. | →Stable |
| CounterAt a 37.3 times forward earnings multiple, the market is pricing in sustained high growth — any deceleration, even to a still-respectable 10%, could cause meaningful de-rating from current elevated levels. | ||
A forward price-to-earnings multiple of 37.3 times and a PEG of 1.80 place this stock in expensive territory versus peers, and the risk/reward of roughly 0.9-to-1 means a favorable outcome is not adequately compensated by the current price — the setup favors patience. Valuation breakdown | This pillar is falsified if the forward price-to-earnings multiple compresses below 25 times — through price decline, earnings acceleration, or both — restoring a more attractive entry point. | →Stable |
| CounterHigh-quality compounders with consistent beat streaks and a 29% return on equity can sustain elevated multiples for extended periods if the growth trajectory holds; the premium may be warranted rather than stretched if execution continues. | ||
Return on equity of 29% is among the stronger readings versus peers, reflecting efficient deployment of the equity base — but free cash flow covers only 48% of net income, a gap flagged as a red flag that raises questions about the quality of reported earnings. Quality breakdown | Free cash flow as a percentage of net income recovers above 75% over the next two annual reporting periods, closing the gap between reported earnings and cash generation. | →Stable |
| CounterA high return on equity alongside a 48% FCF-to-net-income ratio combined with an elevated leverage ratio may indicate aggressive accounting or heavy reinvestment — if any of these dynamics worsen simultaneously, the financial risk profile rises beyond what the income statement alone suggests. | ||
The company has beaten consensus earnings estimates in all four of the last four quarters, with an average positive surprise of roughly 21% — a pattern of consistently delivering ahead of expectations that, if sustained, could drive upward revisions to analyst estimates and support continued multiple expansion.
→StableCatalyst breakdown
- Expectation
- The earnings beat streak extends to 5 or more consecutive quarters with average surprise remaining above 10%, prompting at least two rounds of upward consensus estimate revisions.
CounterA four-quarter beat streak can reflect consistently conservative guidance as much as operational outperformance; if management sets more precise guidance in coming periods, the surprise margin will compress even if absolute results remain strong.
Revenue is expanding at 26% year-over-year with a growth score among the stronger readings in the overall profile, suggesting the business is capturing demand at a pace that could justify a premium multiple if sustained.
→StableGrowth breakdown
- Expectation
- Revenue growth sustains above 15% year-over-year for at least 3 consecutive quarters, confirming this is durable expansion rather than a single-period spike.
CounterAt a 37.3 times forward earnings multiple, the market is pricing in sustained high growth — any deceleration, even to a still-respectable 10%, could cause meaningful de-rating from current elevated levels.
A forward price-to-earnings multiple of 37.3 times and a PEG of 1.80 place this stock in expensive territory versus peers, and the risk/reward of roughly 0.9-to-1 means a favorable outcome is not adequately compensated by the current price — the setup favors patience.
→StableValuation breakdown
- Expectation
- This pillar is falsified if the forward price-to-earnings multiple compresses below 25 times — through price decline, earnings acceleration, or both — restoring a more attractive entry point.
CounterHigh-quality compounders with consistent beat streaks and a 29% return on equity can sustain elevated multiples for extended periods if the growth trajectory holds; the premium may be warranted rather than stretched if execution continues.
Return on equity of 29% is among the stronger readings versus peers, reflecting efficient deployment of the equity base — but free cash flow covers only 48% of net income, a gap flagged as a red flag that raises questions about the quality of reported earnings.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Free cash flow as a percentage of net income recovers above 75% over the next two annual reporting periods, closing the gap between reported earnings and cash generation.
CounterA high return on equity alongside a 48% FCF-to-net-income ratio combined with an elevated leverage ratio may indicate aggressive accounting or heavy reinvestment — if any of these dynamics worsen simultaneously, the financial risk profile rises beyond what the income statement alone suggests.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
5.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 9.4 |
| ROA | 3.7 |
| Gross margin | 0.4 |
| Op margin | 4.2 |
| Net margin | 5.1 |
| Current ratio | 8.2 |
| FCF quality | 3.3 |
| Moat | 6.0 |
| Piotroski F | 7.8 |
- ▸Excellent ROE: 28%
- ▸Earnings quality RED FLAG: 41% FCF/NI
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 7/9
Growth
5.9/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 7.0 |
| EPS growth | 4.8 |
Momentum
6.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 4.5 |
| MACD | 10.0 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 4.0 |
| Volume | 1.6 |
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Below 200-MA, MA slope -3.4%/30d — confirmed downtrend
Sentiment
7.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 7.3 |
| Price target | 9.6 |
| erm sentiment | 4.9 |
- ▸Analyst upside: 52%
Insider
5.0/10data confidence 50%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 5.0 |
- ▸Insider selling (low materiality) — $1,725,007 (0.014% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
4.5/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 4.5 |
| quality rank | 8.2 |
| growth rank | 4.3 |
- ▸Superior ROE vs peers
Technical
3.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 4.2 |
| support resistance | 3.8 |
| 52w position | 1.4 |
Risk (lower is worse)
5.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 7.7 |
| days to cover | 8.2 |
| volatility | 3.7 |
| put call | 0.0 |
| implied vol | 3.6 |
| max pain risk | 7.0 |
| beta | 8.6 |
| debt equity | 4.0 |
- ▸Elevated put/call: 2.04
Catalyst
7.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 10.0 |
| dividend safety | 5.2 |
- ▸Perfect beat streak: 4Q
- ▸Earnings in 3 days
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Earnings in 3 days. Wait until post-earnings.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L3:NEWS_BLOCK|ENTRY_STICKY:WITHIN_BANDPassed (7)
- MOMENTUM:6.0>=5.5
- ASYMMETRY:3.4>=1.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:3d<=7d
Warning (1)
- DEATH_CROSS:momentum=6.0>=5.0 recovering
Reward-to-Risk
3.40
Upside
+36.7%
Downside
10.8%
Sizing output
STARTER
SetupRecovery — Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 41
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilitySpeculative — Drawdown -43% (>40% off 52w high)
Investment implication
A recent news event triggered an L3 news-block on the verdict path. Trigger: Earnings in 3 days. Wait until post-earnings. The 10-dimension scores remain Sentiment at 7.4 (strongest), but EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:3d<=7d also fails — the news block is the proximate trigger, not the sole driver.
The strongest dimensions are Sentiment at 7.4, Catalyst at 7.0, and Momentum at 6.0; the weakest are Technical at 3.1, Peer rank at 4.5, and Insider at 5.0. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 3.40 and an engine sizing output of STARTER.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Perfect Earnings Beat Streak
Trip ifEPS surprise falls below 5% for 2 consecutive quarters, ending the streak of material over-delivery.
- P2Strong Revenue Growth Profile
Trip ifRevenue growth falls below 10% YoY for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P3Rich Valuation Limits Near Term Return
Trip ifForward price-to-earnings multiple compresses below 25x on a combination of price decline and upward earnings revisions.
- P4Roe Strength With Fcf Gap
Trip ifFree cash flow as a percentage of net income rises above 75% for 2 consecutive quarters.