Skip to main content
BURLBurlington Stores, Inc.Sell5.3·$314.00-0.96%
Open full analysis

Burlington Stores, Inc. (BURL) Stock Analysis

Range Bound setup

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5High Confidence

Consumer Cyclical · Apparel Retail

Sell if holding. At $314.00, A.R:R 0.5:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Thin upside margin: 5.2%; V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=5.1).

Burlington Stores is a national off-price retailer operating 1,212 stores across 46 states, Puerto Rico, and the US Virgin Islands, selling apparel, home goods, and accessories at discounts to comparable department store prices. The company sources merchandise opportunistically... Read more

$314.00+5.2% A.UpsideScore 5.3/10#11 of 12 Apparel Retail
QualityF-score7 / 9FCF yield1.06%
Stop $292.02Target $330.36(analyst − 10%)A.R:R 0.5:1
Analyst target$367.07+16.9%15 analysts
$330.36our TP
$314.00price
$367.07mean
$300
$435

Sell if holding. At $314.00, A.R:R 0.5:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Thin upside margin: 5.2%; V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=5.1). Chart setup: RSI 59 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Score 5.3/10, high confidence.

Passes 6/8 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, earnings proximity 80d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.

10-K grounded · weekly refresh

About Burlington Stores, Inc.

About Burlington Stores, Inc.

Burlington Stores had 1,212 stores across 46 states, Washington D.C. and Puerto Rico at the close of Fiscal 2025 — up from 1,108 the prior year after 113 net new openings. More than 99% of net sales are generated from company-operated brick-and-mortar locations, with no e-commerce channel; the company targets a long-term store count of 2,000. The store base spans 52.8 million gross square feet, supported by six distribution centers.

Burlington generates revenue exclusively through in-store merchandise transactions. The off-price model relies on opportunistic, close-to-need buying, with no vendor accounting for more than 5% of net purchases during Fiscal 2025 and no long-term purchase commitments held with any supplier. Product mix in Fiscal 2025 was: accessories and shoes 28%, ladies apparel 20%, home 20%, men's apparel 17%, kids and baby 12%, and outerwear 3%. The core customer demographic is 25-49 years old with household income of $25,000-$100,000. Competition includes department stores, specialty chains, mass merchants, and off-price peers; some traditional full-price retailers have developed off-price concepts that may directly compete, while growth in e-commerce spending may draw traffic away from physical stores.

Show full overview

Burlington leases substantially all of its store locations, with most leases structured as ten-year terms subject to multiple five-year renewal options. The company notes that if renewal terms prove commercially unacceptable, or suitable alternative sites cannot be identified, Burlington would generally be entitled to recover costs incurred upon cancellation but must continue paying rent for the balance of any non-terminated lease. With the company targeting 2,000 stores over the long term, the ability to secure favorable lease terms at scale is a material dependency on real estate market conditions outside its control.

See also: Consumer Cyclical · Apparel Retail

From Burlington Stores, Inc.'s most recent 10-K filing, extracted June 9, 2026.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-06-09
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Thu, Aug 27, 202680d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (4/4)
Risks
Thin upside margin: 5.2%
V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=5.1)
Sector modifier (Consumer Cyclical): -1.5

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)32.6
P/E (Fwd)23.0
Mkt Cap$19.9B
EV/EBITDA19.4
Profit Mgn5.2%
ROE39.1%
Rev Growth14.1%
Beta1.46
DividendNone
Rating analysts25

Quality Signals

Piotroski F7/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C33.64bearish
IV51%elevated

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

Show full disclosure ▾

About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.

Not investment advice. TrendMatrix is not a registered investment adviser. Our content is for informational and educational purposes only. Consult your own licensed investment adviser, broker, or tax professional before making any investment decision.

Conflicts and positions. The TrendMatrix editorial team frequently holds personal long-term positions in securities discussed. We disclose positions held at the time of publication on each piece. We maintain a trading-window policy: we do not initiate or close positions in the same direction as a TrendMatrix publication within 24 hours before or 72 hours after publication.

No paid promotion. TrendMatrix does not accept payment from any issuer, broker, or third party in exchange for coverage of any security. Our sole compensation is subscription revenue.

No fiduciary duty. No fiduciary, advisory, or agency relationship is created between you and TrendMatrix by reading our content or subscribing to our service.

Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

10 dimensions · all in-band

GatesA.R:R 0.5 < 1.5@spotMomentum 5.4<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)Momentum 5.4>=4.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsEARNINGS PROXIMITY 80d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARRange BoundSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
59 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $280.00Resistance $334.81

Price Targets

$292
$330
A.Upside+5.2%
A.R:R0.5:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! asymmetry at 0.5 (below the engine's 1.5 threshold)@spot

Earnings

B
B
B
B
4/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-08-27 (80d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is BURL stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. At $314.00, A.R:R 0.5:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Thin upside margin: 5.2%; V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=5.1). Chart setup: RSI 59 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Prior stop was $292.02. Score 5.3/10, high confidence.

What is the BURL stock price target?

Take-profit target: $330.36 (+5.2% upside). Prior stop was $292.02. Stop-loss: $292.02.

What are the risks of investing in BURL?

Thin upside margin: 5.2%; V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=5.1); Sector modifier (Consumer Cyclical): -1.5.

Is BURL overvalued or undervalued?

Burlington Stores, Inc. trades at a P/E of 32.6 (forward 23.0). TrendMatrix value score: 5.1/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about BURL?

25 analysts cover BURL with a consensus score of 4.1/5. Average price target: $367.

What does Burlington Stores, Inc. do?Burlington Stores is a national off-price retailer operating 1,212 stores across 46 states, Puerto Rico, and the US...

Burlington Stores is a national off-price retailer operating 1,212 stores across 46 states, Puerto Rico, and the US Virgin Islands, selling apparel, home goods, and accessories at discounts to comparable department store prices. The company sources merchandise opportunistically from thousands of vendors.

Related stocks: BKE (Buckle, Inc. (The)) · ROST (Ross Stores, Inc.) · VSCO (Victorias Secret & Co.) · ANF (Abercrombie & Fitch Company) · BOOT (Boot Barn Holdings, Inc.)
Home Stocks BURL

Latest news

Latest News

StockStory20d agoEarnings
MSN26d ago
Quiver Quantitative26d ago
MarketBeat18d ago
Seeking Alpha18d agoEarnings
Benzinga18d agoEarnings
StockStory18d ago
Investing.com25d agoEarnings
Yahoo Finance25d ago
MarketBeat26d agoEarnings
Simplywall.st22d ago
Yahoo Finance21d ago
Yahoo Finance21d ago
MSN28d ago
MarketBeat28d agoAnalyst
Yahoo Finance24d ago
Yahoo Finance24d agoEarnings
Benzinga11d agoEarnings
Benzinga17d ago
Benzinga17d agoAnalyst
Loading more...